New Delhi: The deadly conflict between Israel and the Gaza-based militant group Hamas that has claimed over 2,100 lives on both sides so far is likely to impact the further rollout of the Abraham Accords that were aimed at creating emotional bonding between the Arab and Jewish people.
The Abraham Accords, mediated by the US, are bilateral agreements that seek to bring about normalisation of ties between Israel and Arab nations. The Accords are named after Abraham, a figure revered in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, symbolising the hope for reconciliation and cooperation among these countries. The main objectives of the Accords were to normalise diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations between Israel and the signatory Arab nations.
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The signatory countries agreed to establish official diplomatic relations, including the exchange of ambassadors and the opening of embassies. The Accords aimed to promote economic ties and collaboration in various sectors, such as trade, technology, healthcare, and tourism. The parties also committed to enhancing security cooperation, particularly in the areas of counterterrorism and regional stability. The Accords encouraged cultural and people-to-people exchanges such as sports, education, and tourism.
The initial announcement of August 13, 2020, concerned only Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) before the announcement of a follow-up agreement between Israel and Bahrain on September 11, 2020. On September 15, 2020, the official signing ceremony for the first iteration of the Abraham Accords was hosted by the then US President Donald Trump at the White House.
The Abraham Accords were signed by Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani, UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan vis-à-vis Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Trump as a witness. They were negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor Jared Kushner and Kushner’s assistant Avi Berkowitz.
In December 2020, the Israel–Morocco normalisation agreement was signed. In exchange for Morocco’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty, the US recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. On January 6, 2021, following up on the Israel–Sudan normalisation agreement (signed in October 2020), the government of Sudan signed the “Abraham Accords Declaration” in Khartoum, witnessed by the then American Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Though the process of full normalisation is ongoing, the US has incentivised the deal by agreeing to abolish Sudan’s status as a ‘State Sponsor of Terrorism’ while also providing a loan of $1.2 billion to help the Sudanese government clear the country’s debts to the World Bank.
Now, the UAE, the first Arab country to come forward for the Abraham Accords, has said that the latest attack by the Palestinian group Hamas on Israeli towns was a “serious and grave escalation”. In a statement, the UAE’s foreign ministry called for ending the violence and the protection of the civilian population. The ministry called on both Hamas and Israel “to de-escalate and avoid an expansion of the heinous violence with tragic consequences affecting civilian lives and facilities”. In a separate development, the UAE warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to refrain from intervening in the Israel-Hamas war or allow attacks on Israel from Syrian soil.
Bahrain, the other Gulf Arab country to sign the Abraham Accords, warned that “the continuation of fighting” between “the Palestinian factions and the Israeli forces in Gaza” will have “negative ramifications on the security and stability of the entire region”.
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However, now with the Hamas attack on Israel last weekend followed by the deadly Israeli retaliatory attacks on Gaza, the further rollout of the Abraham Accords among other Arab nations is likely to be impacted. It will have a negative impact on the original aim of roping in more Arab nations for the Accords.
“The conflict has poured cold water on the emotional bonding that was supposed to be fostered by the Abraham Accords,” R Dayakar, former Indian Ambassador to Iraq and Jordan who also served in the West Asia desk of the Ministry of External Affairs, told ETV Bharat.
Dayakar said that one possible consequence might be that the revival of the Palestine issue in the global agenda and the two-state solution will gain traction. With Saudi Arabia calling a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) over the latest conflict, the Palestine issue will again come up for discussion.
“Further rollout of the Abraham Accords will depend on addressing some critical Palestinian issues like the Jewish settlements in the West Bank, Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and credible assurance of the Al Aqsa Mosque,” Dayakar said.
The Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem is held sacred both by the Jews and the Muslims. Jews call the site Temple Mount. Last month, Israeli forces imposed tight security measures ejecting worshippers from Al Aqsa Mosque and intensifying their presence around it, denying access to any Palestinian below the age of 50 to clear the way for Israeli settlers on Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. In recent times, Israeli religious nationalists such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have increased their visits to the Al Aqsa compound. Earlier this month, during the Jewish harvest festival of Sukkot, hundreds of ultra-orthodox Jews and Israeli activists visited the mosque drawing condemnation from Hamas and accusations that Jews praying there is in violation of the status quo agreement.
The Al Aqsa mosque has been a contentious issue since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. The administrative body is responsible for the whole Al Aqsa mosque compound is known as “the Jerusalem Waqf”, an organ of the Jordanian government. The Jerusalem Waqf is responsible for administrative matters in the Al-Aqsa mosque compound. Religious authority on the site, on the other hand, is the responsibility of the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, appointed by the government of the State of Palestine.
Meanwhile, with Hamas taking a large number of Israeli soldiers and civilians hostage, the question of exchanging them for Palestinian prisoners lodged in Israeli jails will also come up. There are nearly 5,200 Palestinians in Israeli jails, including 33 women and 170 minors, according to figures provided by Addameer, a prisoners’ rights NGO. However, the exchange of prisoners is a long and contentious issue. In 2006, Hamas-linked militants captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit during a cross-border raid. They held Shalit captive for five years till he was exchanged for 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
The attack by Hamas from the Palestinian enclave of Gaza also comes close on the heels of the killing of four Palestinians and a rise in attacks by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Observers say that Israeli settlers in the West Bank have become emboldened after the far-right coalition government led by Netanyahu came to power in Israel.
The conflict is also likely to adversely impact the US mediation efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel for the Abraham Accords. The proposed agreement would have been the mother of all agreements, a pact that would establish diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. On the agenda were issues such as addressing “the vision for more integration” in the Middle East and how to confront Iran, an adversary of both the US and Saudi Arabia.
“Now, the US mediation efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel are likely to be put in cold storage,” Dayakar said. “(US President Joe) Biden tried his best. It was a revolutionary step though.”
