Hospitals in the eye of the storm: New report exposes risk of hospital shutdowns from extreme weather

As per the report by XDI, without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, up to one in 12 hospitals worldwide will be at high risk of total or partial shutdown from extreme weather events by the end of the century - a total of 16,245 hospitals.

London/Hyderabad: One in 12 hospitals worldwide could face partial or total shutdown from climate change extreme weather events if countries fail to curb fossil fuel emissions, according to a new report released on Saturday by XDI (Cross Dependency Analysis).

XDI is a global leader in physical climate risk analysis. As a result, communities hit by hurricanes, severe storms, flooding, forest fires and other disasters could be cut off from emergency hospital care right when they need it most, with low and middle-income countries most at risk, they say.

"Climate change is increasingly impacting the health of people around the world. What happens when severe weather results in hospital shutdowns as well? Our analysis shows that without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, the risks to global health will be exacerbated further, as thousands of hospitals become unable to deliver services during crises,” Dr Karl Mallon, Director of Science and Technology, XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative), was quoted as saying in a media statement.

As per the report, without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, up to one in 12 hospitals worldwide will be at high risk of total or partial shutdown from extreme weather events by the end of the century - a total of 16,245 hospitals. This is almost twice as many hospitals as are currently at high risk. A residential or commercial building with this level of risk would be considered uninsurable.

The report said that all of these 16,245 hospitals will require adaptation, where practical. "Even with this enormous investment, relocation will be the only option for many. Of the 16,245 hospitals identified as high risk by 2100, 71 per cent (11,512) of them are in low and middle-income countries," it added.

According to the XDI report, limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius with a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels would halve the damage risk to hospital infrastructure compared to a high emissions scenario. "If emissions are high, the risk of damage to hospitals around the world from extreme weather will increase more than four-fold (311 per cent) by the end of the century. In a low emissions scenario, this increase in risk is reduced to just 106 per cent," it added.

"Today, South East Asia has the highest percentage of hospitals at high risk of damage from extreme weather events in the world. With high emissions, almost 1 in 5 hospitals (18.4 per cent) in Southeast Asia will be at high risk of total or partial shutdown by the end of the century. South Asia has the highest number of hospitals at risk, reflecting the high population. By 2050, a third of all the most high-risk hospitals (3,357) in the world will be in South Asia if emissions are high. By 2100 this could increase to 5,894," it added.

The report also said that hospitals on coastlines and near rivers are most at risk. "Today, riverine and surface water flooding dominates the risk of damage to hospitals. Towards the end of the century, coastal inundation rapidly increases (exacerbated by sea-level rise) and becomes the most significant hazard after riverine flooding by 2100," it added.

Dr Karl Mallon added that the most obvious thing to dramatically reduce this risk to hospitals, and keep communities safe, is to reduce emissions. XDI is part of the Climate Risk Group.