London: Britain's beleaguered Prime Minister Boris Johnson is fighting for his political future after two of his top Cabinet ministers walked out of their jobs and a string of more junior ministers resigned Wednesday following months of political chaos. A growing number of opponents within his own Conservative Party have called openly for Johnson to go. But he has shown no sign of quitting, and it may fall to a small but powerful Conservative group known as the 1922 Committee to decide whether to oust him before the next general election.
Here’s a look at how that could happen:
CAN A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE TAKE PLACE?
Technically, not for another 11 months. A no-confidence vote is triggered if 15% of Conservative lawmakers — currently 54 — write to Graham Brady, head of the 1922 Committee, to request it. Johnson survived a confidence vote on Jun. 6, though the scale of the revolt — 41% of his party's lawmakers voted against him — left his future in doubt.
Under current party rules, a year must pass before another formal leadership challenge can take place. But the 1922 Committee has the power to change the rules to allow a fresh confidence vote within a shorter timeframe.
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WHAT IS THE 1922 COMMITTEE?
The 1922 Committee is a group of about a dozen Conservative backbenchers - lawmakers not serving in the prime minister's government - who meet regularly to discuss party matters. The committee meets with the party leader monthly to represent the views of the rank and file membership. Crucially, the group determines the rules under which a sitting leader can be challenged. The committee was named because a group of lawmakers elected in 1922 formed it, albeit in 1923. Its members are elected by all Conservative backbenchers, and an election is due within coming weeks to choose a new executive committee.
HOW LIKELY ARE THE RULES TO CHANGE?
That's up to the 1922 Committee executive. Some news reports suggest a decision could even come later Wednesday, when the executive meets. Or the committee may wait a few weeks until after its new executive is elected. Several Conservative lawmakers have said they would stand for the committee and vote for a rule change, if elected. Bob Blackman, the committee’s joint executive secretary, said Wednesday he believed a “very high threshold” needs to be reached to warrant a confidence vote so soon after last month’s ballot.
“What we have to do is certainly have calm heads here, because one of the other suggestions being made … is that you’d reduce the timeframe to six months. Six months takes you to the beginning of December,” he told British channel TalkTV. “In my view, you’d have to have a very high threshold indeed to warrant confidence votes very soon after a previous confidence vote,” he said.
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WHAT IF JOHNSON LOSES A CONFIDENCE VOTE?
Johnson would fight to stay and win another confidence vote, his press secretary said Wednesday. She described last month’s result as “clear and decisive." Johnson needs backing from 180 out of 359 Conservative lawmakers to survive a confidence vote. If he loses, he would resign and the party would hold an election for a new leader; Johnson would be barred from running.
He would remain party leader and prime minister until a replacement is chosen. Any Conservative legislator is eligible to run to replace Johnson as party leader. The winner of the leadership race becomes prime minister, without the need for a national election.
Here is a timeline of recent key events that have rocked Johnson and his government:
Nov. 3-4, 2021: Johnson's government orders Conservative lawmakers to support a change in ethics rules to delay the suspension of Owen Paterson, a Johnson supporter who had been censured for breaching lobbying rules. The measure passes. A day later, facing an angry backlash from lawmakers of all parties, Johnson reverses course and allows lawmakers to vote on Paterson’s suspension. Paterson resigns.
Nov. 30, 2021: British media begin reporting allegations that government officials attended parties in government offices during November and December 2020 in violation of COVID-19 lockdown rules. The scandal grows over the coming weeks, ultimately including reports of more than a dozen parties. Johnson maintains that there were no parties and no rules were broken, but opposition leaders criticize the government for breaking the law as people across the country made sacrifices to combat the pandemic.
Dec. 8, 2021: Johnson authorizes investigation into the scandal, dubbed “Partygate.” Pressure initially builds for a leadership challenge, but fizzles.
Jan. 2022: Johnson's longtime aide, Munira Mirza, quits Downing Street. Three other top aides resign soon after.
March 23, 2022: The government announces a mid-year spending plan that's criticized for doing too little to help people struggling with the soaring cost of living. Treasury chief Rishi Sunak refuses to delay a planned income tax increase or impose a windfall profits tax on oil and gas companies benefiting from rising energy prices.
April 9, 2022: Johnson meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, pledging a new package of military and economic support. The move helps bolster Johnson and his supporters, who argue that the government should not focus on domestic political squabbles.
April 12, 2022: Johnson is fined 50 pounds ($63) for attending one of the lockdown parties. Opposition parties characterize him as the first U.K. prime minister in history who has been shown to have broken the law while in office. Johnson apologizes but insists he didn’t know he was breaking the rules.
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May 22, 2022: Findings of the “Partygate” investigation are published, detailing 16 gatherings at Johnson's home and office and other government offices between May 2020 and April 2021. The report details instances of excessive drinking among some of Johnson's staff, at a time when millions of people were unable to see friends and family.
May 26, 2022: The government reverses course on its tax decision on oil and gas companies and announces plans for a 25% windfall profits levy.
June 6, 2022: Johnson wins a vote of no confidence, with Conservative lawmakers voting by 211 to 148 to back him. But the scale of the revolt — some 41% voted against him — shakes his grip on power.
June 15, 2022: Christopher Geidt quits as ethics adviser to Johnson, accusing the Conservative government of planning to flout conduct rules.
June 24, 2022: Johnson's Conservatives lose two former strongholds to opposition parties in special elections.
June 29, 2022: Parliament's cross-party Privileges Committee issues a call for evidence for a probe into whether Johnson misled Parliament over lockdown parties.
June 30, 2022: Chris Pincher resigns as the Conservative deputy chief whip after allegedly assaulting two fellow guests at a private members’ club in London. Previous sexual misconduct allegations emerge about Pincher. Questions swirl about whether Johnson knew about the claims when Pincher was given the job.
July 5, 2022: Johnson apologizes for his handling of the Pincher scandal and says he had forgotten about being told of the allegations. Two of Johnson's most senior Cabinet ministers, Treasury chief Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, quit the government. (AP)
