New Delhi : Despite Chinese claims of brokering a peace deal between Myanmar’s military junta and the Brotherhood Alliance resistance forces, fighting continues in India’s eastern neighbourhood country, which will be a matter of concern for New Delhi.
“From January 10 to 11, with China’s mediation and effort to drive progress, representatives of the Myanmar military and the three ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar, namely the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA), held peace talks and officially reached a ceasefire agreement in Kunming of China’s Yunnan Province,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning had said that at a media briefing on Friday.
“The two sides agreed to implement the ceasefire immediately, the military personnel will disengage and the two sides will address relevant disputes and concerns through peaceful negotiation,” Mao said. “The two sides promised not to undermine the safety of Chinese people living in the border area and Chinese projects and personnel in Myanmar. The two sides had consultations on ceasefire arrangement and other matters.”
Following this, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, the spokesperson of Myanmar’s ruling military council, said in an audio note to journalists that the two sides had met in Kunming and after talks, agreed on a temporary cease-fire agreement, the Associated Press reported.
And then, late on Friday night, the Three Brotherhood Alliance – comprising the MNDAA, TNLA and AA - issued a statement on the Telegram messaging platform detailing what it called the Haigeng Agreement, apparently named after the Kunming hotel where China has hosted cease-fire talks.
“It said the ceasefire began Thursday at 9 pm local time and committed both sides to avoiding confrontations and employing dialogue to resolve disputes, especially regarding the use of arms,” the Associated Press report stated. “The alliance pledged not to attack encampments and outposts of the military government, which reciprocated by agreeing not to try to launch attacks using artillery and airstrikes, said the statement.’
However, news portal The Irrawaddy, citing a local analyst, reported that the peace deal is only confined to the northern state of Shan bordering China.
“The deal is only effective for northern Shan,” the analyst said.
“In other areas, the fighting will continue,” he said, referring to Rakhine, Chin, Karenni, Sagaing and other areas.
While Rakhine State borders Bangladesh to the west of Myanmar, Karenni State borders Thailand to the country’s east. Chin State, Kachin State and Sagaing Region of Myanmar share the border with India’s northeastern region.
Now, despite the statements from all three sides about the peace deal, latest reports suggest that the junta itself has broken the deal in Shan State by attacking Alliance positions and civilian-dominated areas. The Irrawaddy cited the TNLA as saying that Myanmar’s junta has already broken Thursday’s ceasefire in northern Shan State with continuing airstrikes.
According to the TNLA, 19 artillery strikes were reported in three northern Shan State townships and neighbouring Mogoke Township in Mandalay Region on Friday.
“The junta’s base in Kyaukme town twice shelled Par Poat village and regime troops at Phyu Young village in Mogoke shelled Nyaung Kone village,” The Irrawaddy quoted TNLA as saying.
“The junta base in Hsipaw town in northern Shan State shelled Mann Hae village on the same day,” the report stated. “Regime forces in Lashio city shelled Kone Paung, Ma Kee Nu and Ae Nine villages in Lashio Township. Clashes broke out in Kyaukme Township on Saturday while junta troops attacked a TNLA base, with the armed group withdrawing after two hours of fighting. The TNLA said the junta had broken the ceasefire numerous times since Thursday.”
Myanmar has experienced widespread violence since the military ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. However, the junta has been suffering from stunning reverses ever since the Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in October last year.
The Alliance was formed in June 2019. The group rose to prominence in 2023 in resisting the Myanmar junta in the wake of the 2021 Myanmar coup. The three armed groups were silent about the coup initially but released a statement reaffirming the Alliance’s existence in March 2021. During the Myanmar civil war, the group fought mainly in Rakhine State and northern Shan State. On October 27, 2023, the Alliance launched Operation 1027, an offensive against the junta in northern Shan State.
The AA is an ethnic armed organisation based in Rakhine State (Arakan). Founded on April 10, 2009, the AA is the military wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA). The MNDAA is an armed resistance group in the Kokang region. The army has existed since 1989, having been the first one to sign a ceasefire agreement with the then Burmese government. The ceasefire lasted for about two decades. The TNLA is the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF). The TNLA is known for its opposition to drug trade, conducting operations where they actively destroy poppy fields, heroin refineries and meth labs. The TNLA claims that it arrests opium smugglers regularly and the narcotics seized are publicly burned on special occasions to deter drug trade.
According to reports, till now, the Alliance has captured 16 towns and five China-Myanmar trade zones. The Myanmar junta has suffered the loss of 250 army bases, including a regional operations command and tactical bases, in Shan State alone.
The negotiations in Kunming were the third such brokered by China between the two sides since December last year at the request of the junta. In the initial meeting, there was consensus on implementing a 20-day ceasefire from December 11 to 31. However, the agreement fell apart due to ongoing intense clashes in northern Shan. The subsequent discussions from December 22 to 24 in the second round were unproductive, leading to a failure to reach any agreement, and the hostilities persisted without interruption.
The situation in Myanmar has been a source of much concern for India. According to Army chief General Manoj Pande, the Indian military has been closely following the unfolding developments in the eastern neighbour.
“That (the situation along the Indo-Myanmar border) has been of concern to us,” General Pande said at a press conference on Thursday. “You are aware of the activities of the Myanmar Army and the ethnic armed organisations and PDF (People’s Defence Forces) in the past couple of months.”
The Army chief said the situation in Myanmar’s border areas has forced 416 Myanmarese Army personnel to cross over to India, besides some civilians from that country taking shelter in the northeastern states of Mizoram and Manipur. All 416 Myanmarese Army personnel have since been repatriated.
The situation has also compelled India to review the Free Movement Regime between the northeastern states and Myanmar that was started as part of New Delhi’s Act East Policy.
