New Delhi: In the backdrop of the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the China-Russia axis has grown stronger even as it promises to change the world order. In tandem with China’s increasing influence in the top echelons of the Myanmar military, also called the ‘Tatmadaw’, Russia is also steadily expanding its footprint in South East Asian nation with increasing supplies of military equipment.
The supplies include the multirole Sukhoi 30 SME aircraft, Yak 130 trainer jets and the Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile systems, besides surveillance, reconnaissance platforms and equipment. Two Su 30s have already been deployed with the ‘Tatmadaw’ and are stationed in the airbase in Naypyitaw, while another four Su 30s are yet to be supplied, the Jane’s has reported.
Military relations between Russia and Myanmar have prospered in recent times. Earlier this week, the ‘Tatmadaw’ chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited Moscow in what the Russian defense ministry stated to be an attempt to “strengthen military and military-technical cooperation”.
An official statement said: “The sides positively assessed the dynamically developing mutually beneficial relations in the military sphere and reiterated their plans to maximally efficiently use the existing potential to strengthen military and military-technical cooperation in the spirit of strategic partnership.”
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China and Russia are the biggest suppliers of military hardware to Myanmar, a nation that is facing the West’s ire due to the ‘Tatmadaw’ taking over the reins of the government after a February 1, 2021 coup.
China and Myanmar
Myanmar is of special interest to China because it is through Myanmar that China has gained access to the Indian Ocean seaboard. These new routes enable China to overcome the “Malacca Dilemma” or the unavoidable route that Chinese ships have to take through the narrow Malacca Straits which has the potential of being a ‘choking point’ for Chinese ships during times of hostility.
On August 27, 2021, the new Myanmar-China route was tested and launched which shortened the shipping time from Singapore to the Chinese hub of Chengdu, by a good 20 days. The new route will enable China to carry out international trade directly from the Indian Ocean onwards with West Asia, Europe and the Atlantic region.
While western China gets access to the Indian Ocean for the first time, Myanmar’s cash-strapped ‘Tatamadaw’ (the Junta) will be guaranteed a stable source of income.
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Another major Chinese infrastructure project and also a part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor is the development of a deep seaport in Kyaukphyu in Rakhine. This will allow China’s southwestern Yunnan province to access the seas. While the ‘Tatmadaw’ regime is already considered to be very close to Beijing, that relationship has become more proximate after the 2021 coup. On December 24, 2021—the founding day of the Myanmar Navy—China had handed over a Ming Class submarine to Myanmar.
India and Myanmar
India is also pursuing a proactive foreign policy with Myanmar. On December 24, 2020, India had also gifted a Russian-made Kilo Class submarine to the Myanmar navy which in a way was also to pre-empt growing Chinese efforts to get Myanmar to buy a Chinese submarine. Myanmar is also central to India’s flagship “Act East Policy” (AEP), a pet project of the Narendra Modi government.
India’s AEP) aims to build closer economic, political, military and strategic ties with countries in Southeast Asia that are grouped under the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and also expand into the Southeast Asian market in the process with Indian products for export. It is only through Myanmar that the AEP can be executed.
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The Indian and Myanmarese militaries had brought about a good working relationship that helped combat the insurgents from India's Northeast region who operated out of headquarters and bases in jungled swaths of Myanmar across the Indian border. But that relationship was seriously jolted by the 2021 coup, as thousands of refugees had crossed over to India’s Mizoram and Manipur states fearing persecution from the ‘Tatmadaw’ and India was forced to accommodate them.
A civil war-like situation now prevails in the country with a number of ethnic armed organisations declaring war against the junta, adding more volatility to the incessant insurgencies led by rebel ethnic groups including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Union (KNU), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Shan State Army-North, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army.
