New Delhi: The United Kingdom (UK) went to polls on 12 December 2019, just after 30 months of the last general elections in June 2017. The Conservative (Tories), Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National and a host of other parties, engaged in a spirited contest. And the winner was....... BREXIT.
The Conservatives under the leadership of the ‘son in law of India’ Boris Johnson, rode the Brexit wave and won hands down, securing 365 out of 650 seats, a gain of 47.
Ambivalence on Brexit, of the 70-year-old warhorse Jeremy Corbyn, led his Labour party to a disastrous loss of 59 seats, down to 203, its lowest tally since 1935.
For once the opinion polls captured the public mood accurately. The resounding mandate received by PM Johnson, all but clinches the British divorce with European Union (EU), which has been hanging fire since June 2016 and has scalped two Prime Ministers.
It appears that the 31st January deadline, the latest of the many, could finally be met. Whether it denotes the beginning of the unravelling of the EU, only time would tell.
However, there is no gainsaying that Brexit would be a watershed for EU, the most successful and ambitious regional grouping, formally constituted as European Economic Committee (EEC) in 1957, by six nations.
UK joined EEC in 1973. Over the last six decades EU has grown into a 28 nation predominantly Christian club. The talk of admitting Turkey, a moderate Muslim state, though nominally secular, has all but disappeared.
Britain too has little to celebrate notwithstanding the Brexiters rejoicing reclamation of sovereignty from Brussels. In fact, it ‘would hasten British slide towards becoming a middle power’ remarked a senior former diplomat.
There is a realistic apprehension of Scotland, which is pro-EU, insisting on a second independence referendum, now that the Scottish National party has bagged 48 seats (gain of 13) while the Tories have lost seven (down to 6) and the Labour is down to just one seat (a loss of 6).
Forty-five percent of Scots had voted for independence in the first referendum in 2014. Resentment against London has since acquired a sharper edge.
Similarly, Brexit could reignite tensions with Northern Ireland, if Johnson tries to introduce border controls. The former is insistent on the continuation of an invisible border with the Republic of Ireland.
Next, contrary to the rosy picture being painted in some official circles, objective analysts agree that Brexit would have a negative impact on the British economy. Its GDP is likely to shrink by 3% (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London). Other studies have shown an even higher contraction.
Read also: UK lawmakers OK Johnson's Brexit bill, pave way to exit EU
Furthermore, new economic strategies would have to be devised by Britain to maintain robust ties with EU, USA, China, India and others that would be anything but easy.
In the current protectionist environment and given the British urgency, FTAs may not happen so quickly or on the most favourable terms for Britain.
London has only till 31 Dec 2020 to thrash out the terms of engagement with EU. A tentative template was agreed upon on 17 October 2019, between PM Johnson and EU, but rejected by the previous House of Commons, where the Tories lacked a majority.
It could form the basis for further discussions now that Johnson has a clear mandate and majority. Brexit would put an end to the free movement of natural persons (skilled or unskilled) from EU to England, which was a sore point with the Britishers.
Henceforth the immigration system would be merit-based and prioritise the higher-skilled regardless of their nationality, bringing Indian and EU personnel at par. Hitherto Indians and non-EU citizens were relegated to Tier 2 (skilled) visas.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to congratulate Boris Johnson and invite him to India. He tweeted on 13 December - “Many congratulations to PM @BorisJohnson for his return with a thumping majority. I wish him the best and look forward to working together for closer India-UK ties.”
Johnson, who was married for 25 years to Marina Wheeler (mother an India born Sikh), has been to India several times in various capacities. He is likely to pay an early official visit to India.
In a first, the current British Commons has 15 MPs of Indian-origin, seven of who represent the Conservative party. Historically the 1.5-million-strong Indian diaspora was noticeably inclined towards the Labour party.
Livid at Corbyn’s ill-informed and partisan stance on Kashmir, the community pivoted away from the party. “Indians have overwhelmingly voted for the Conservatives,” noted Tory peer, Rami Ranger, chairman of Conservative Friends of India, “Labour policy on Kashmir united Indian voters as never before.”
The Labour Party was ticked off by the ministry of external affairs and cold-shouldered both by diaspora associations and the HCI (High Commission of India). The latter promptly cancelled the traditional dinner-reception for the ‘Labour Friends of India’ a group of Labour Party MPs, officials and supporters.
In a telling snub, no representative of the party was invited to the India Day celebrations on September 29, organised by Indian Community Organisations with the support of HCI. The message was loud and clear. In the bargain, the Indian diaspora has come of age politically.
UK was a late entrant into the European Union (then EEC) and is poised to become the first to exit. Former Prime Minister David Cameron during whose watch the Brexit referendum was held rued his inability to prevent a ‘yes’ vote.
It has badly divided the UK and may even lead to its dismemberment. Critics allege that it is the result of British hubris and that the ‘empire on which the sun (was) never (supposed to) set’ could shrink to being just England!
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