New Delhi: Ironically the ruling Communist Party, which supposedly had set out to build an egalitarian society, willy-nilly made China a country of little emperors - privileged, pampered and socially awkward. They embody the consequences of the inverted demographic pyramid in China, where a child is doted over by six adults. Mother and father (both without siblings) and two sets of grandparents.
More likely than not, these six adults have independent incomes and vie with each other to gain the affection of the child, by showering goodies on him. (Mollycoddling the girl child to a similar extent is not so common). These children - teeming millions of them – have learnt to demand, rarely heard the words 'no' or 'share' and have become quite self-centred.
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But how did this come about? It is pertinent to explore the background. Chairman Mao, a votary of large families died in 1976 making way for Paramount Leader Deng Xiaoping, who was determined to usher his country on the path of rapid economic growth. A large and growing population was one of the challenges, coupled with the reality of widespread poverty and low per capita income. Even though the Chinese fertility rate had dipped appreciably to 3.4% in 1979 from 4.9% in 1970 (replacement rate 2.1%), yet its population in 1979 stood at 986 million (India’s was 689 m).
In an unprecedented move, Deng announced the ‘One-Child Policy’ (OCP) in 1979, with two exceptions. Rural dwellers could have a second child after a 5-year gap if the first was a girl, while ethnic minorities in most cases were allowed up to three children.
It traumatized the society once again, which had yet to fully recover from the double whammy of the so-called “Great Leap Forward” (1958-62; which caused at least 30 million deaths) and the "Cultural Revolution" (1966-76). Typical of China, OCP was enforced with a heavy hand. An untold number of women were forced to terminate their pregnancies. Huge fines were imposed on the ‘defaulters’. The Chinese government raked in $314 billion in fines (called Social Maintenance Fees) till early 2012, as per the Economist.
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Another fault line - a marked preference for boys – emerged into stark relief. Unfortunately, that preference afflicts many Asian societies. Sadly, countless mothers aborted their girl child. Consequently, the gender gap steadily widened to 110 boys for (100 girls) in 2000 and further to 118 boys in 2010.
By the turn of the century, an increasing number of eligible bachelors were unable to find a bride. At present men exceed women by 33 million in a total population of 1.4 billion. In other words, 33 million mostly rural poor men, face a bleak and lonely future, without a life partner. These not so fortunate men are known as "bare branches” in China.
There was another unintended consequence of the gender mismatch that deepened the socio-economic stress. 聘金 pìn jīn or the 'bride price' shot up manifold. Traditionally the bridegroom’s side, came bearing gifts for the bride's family at the time of betrothal, as an expression of gratitude for allowing their precious daughter, to join the groom's family. In the past, the suitor would offer a ‘红包 hóng bāo’ or red envelope (considered auspicious) containing 11000 RMB ($1720).
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The bride price which varies from region to region and family to family, reportedly has scaled the one million RMB mark ($156,300), which is a significant sum of money for an average Chinese. While it was a norm for the groom's side to arrange a dwelling unit for the young couple, in recent years reportedly it is not uncommon, for the bride's parents to demand a car and house for themselves, in addition to cash.
To put things in perspective the average annual rural income is 15000 RMB or USD 2345. Many sociologists believe that the huge financial burden, of steep bride prices, is becoming a key reason behind rural poverty. Paradoxically communist China - an ancient civilization - has become more a mercantilist than a Confucian society. The price of almost everything is determined by market forces.
China was patting itself on the back for averting 400 million births due to its OCP. Now that its surplus farm labour has been absorbed in the cities, the median age of the workforce has increased to 38.4 (27 for India), labour costs have risen and the size of the working population has shrunk, Beijing has had to revisit the matter in its entirety. For once it is not spoilt for choices.
The recent census has confirmed that the percentage of the population in the 60 plus group is growing faster than that of the working-age group (15 to 59). The workforce pool has shrunk by 29 million to 894 million in 2020, compared to 925 million in 2011. It is likely to dip to about half of the total population by 2050 as against 70.1% in 2010, which is a nightmarish scenario for China as its economic well-being hinges on a skilled and balanced human resource base.
Earlier in the month, China made a dramatic announcement of scrapping the four-decade-old policy allowing couples to have up to three children. Xinhua news agency promised necessary "supportive measures” (incentives) which are yet to be made public. Yet, the big question is whether the Chinese youth accustomed to sibling-less nuclear families, will start procreating more just to please the ruling communist party? The answer is obvious.
If there were few takers of the policy change in 2016 allowing urban dwellers to have two children, a further relaxation is not likely to result in a population boom. Only two things can. Coercion - which the party cannot resort to; or a massive incentive, that the government can ill afford. It is high time the Communist Party realises the ‘minor’ difference between ordering an increase in industrial production and an increase in population!
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