New Delhi: Indian economy is widely expected to turn a corner in the third quarter (October-December) period in this fiscal but the recovery will not be as much as the government has assumed, said economist NR Bhanumurthy. There is a possibility that the forecast of 5% GDP growth for the whole year will have to be revised downward, he said.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), the nodal agency for measuring the GDP and inflation numbers, is expected to release the GDP data for the third quarter on Friday.
“My own assessment is that it would be slightly better than the second-quarter number,” said NR Bhanumurthy, a professor at National Institute for Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) in Delhi.
“The advance estimate suggests five per cent GDP growth for the whole year which means the economy needs to grow at a rate of 5.5-6% for the next two quarters, which in my view will not happen,” Professor Bhanumurthy told ETV Bharat.
India’s GDP growth has slowed down to a six-year low at the start of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second term. The GDP growth rate, which was 7% during the second quarter (July-September) of FY 2018-19, came down to just 4.5% during the same period in this fiscal (FY2019-20). This is the lowest growth rate since the January-March quarter of FY 2012-13 when it had plunged to just 4.3%.
According to Professor Bhanumurthy, who monitors public finances, the economic recovery will be so weak that it will result in a downward revision of yearly growth forecast for the country’s GDP.
