New Delhi: The manner in which campaigning is unfolding, elections in Western Uttar Pradesh are not possible without polarisation. Whether it is about the exodus of Hindus from Kairana or Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013; reference to Krishna Janmbhoomi at Mathura or foundation-stone laying of ATS center at Deoband with focus on nationalism, at the center of it all, is the Muslim card which the BJP is using to further lure Hindus into its camp.
Hukum Singh, the former BJP MP from Kairana, in the Shamli district, raised the bogey of the exodus of Hindus from their homes as they were being terrorized by Muslims. The intention was to consolidate Hindu votes and create a rift between Jats and Muslims. It later turned out to be a law and order issue with nothing communal about it.
However, the BJP wants to hold on to the 'divisive' narrative to ensure that Jats and Muslims do not vote for the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal Alliance. Union Home Minister Amit Shah visited door-to-door and also met the exodus-affected families and asserted that the people of Kairana were no longer living in fear. In a more pointed reference to Muslims, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath reportedly said that “they were dreaming of making Kashmir here through Kairana…”
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Krishna Janmabhoomi issue was raised by UP’s Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya who tweeted that preparations were underway for construction of a grand Krishna temple on the lines of Lord Ram’s temple in Ayodhya.
In the midst of all these communal issues, the BJP is also trying to mollify agriculturists angry at the deaths of over 700 farmers who died while protesting against the three controversial farm laws. They are also upset that several of them were run over by an SUV allegedly driven by the son of Union Minister of State of Home Ajay Mishra Teni in Lakhimpur Kheri but no action has been taken against the minister who occupies a sensitive position.
Jayant Chaudhary, who heads the RLD, dismissed BJP’s attempt to communalize politics by asserting that “not Jinnah, but ganna will triumph”. This in a way sums up the story of western UP. There are Muslims who are apprehensive of the BJP, Jats who no longer see all Muslims as enemies, and farmers, mainly Jats, who are in no mood to forgive the BJP for the farm laws. On the face of it, the odds are against the BJP. That explains the strenuous efforts being made by Amit Shah in that region to woo voters.
To BJP’s advantage, there are too many Muslims in the fray. The SP-RLD, Bahujan Samaj Party, the SP, the AIMIM have fielded Muslim candidates because of their high presence in Western UP districts which go to poll in the first three phases starting February 10. The SP-RLD alliance has fielded 13 Muslims and BSP 17 for the 58 seats at stake in the first phase. There are eight seats where SP-RLD and the BSP have given tickets to Muslims. With the possibility of Muslim votes getting divided to the advantage of the BJP, the focus is on the minority community. If it votes for BSP, then the advantage of galvanizing OBC votes will not accrue to the SP. Mayawati is perceived to be BJP’s B-team and, though, she may not win the election, she will cut into SP votes to ensure that Akhilesh Yadav does not win either. A similar split in votes is what had helped the BJP in 2017.
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Akhilesh Yadav and Jayant Yadav also have to contend with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM which has fielded Maulana Umair Madani, whose grandfather Arshad Madani is the principal of Darul Uloom Deoband seminary. Maulana Umair’s uncle, Maulana Mahmud Madani, is president of Jamiat Ulama-e-Hind. There are five other Muslims fielded by AIMIM. Maulana Umair will contest from Deoband.
Muslims comprise 47.12 percent in Moradabad and Sambhal. In Bijnor they account for 43.3 percent, in Muzaffarnagar and Shamli 41.30 percent and in Amroha they are 40.78 percent. The districts that go to poll in the first phase---Kairana, Hapur, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Bulandshahr, and Ghaziabad---are districts with a Muslim population of 20 percent or more. That makes Muslim votes decisive.
Farmer leader and Bharatiya Kisan Union’s media in-charge Dharmendra Malik does not talk of Muslims. Early last month he said that the elections will be between pro and anti-BJP voters. Significantly he said that the year-long farmers protest has turned them against the BJP. If that is the case, then the BJP will be unable to repeat its performance in the 2017 elections when it won 51 of the 70 seats in the region. That will be a big setback for Amit Shah, the ruling party’s Chanakya, who is trying all the tricks in his bag to save Western UP from sliding into SP’s hand.
Disclaimer: The writer, Atul Chandra, is a senior journalist. Opinions expressed above are those of the writer and do not represent ETV Bharat.
