New Delhi: The counting of the most crucial U.S Presidential election is underway and all eyes are on battleground states as both President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are inching forward 270 electoral votes in what looks to be an increasingly tight race between the two.
With so much uncertainty about what happens, there is relative clarity about what the electoral outcome could mean for India or how would the outcome of US election affect India and the world as a whole?
Excerpts from the Interview
In an exclusive interview with ETV Bharat, Commodore Uday Bhaskar, Director, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi and an expert on International Affairs said, “This US election2020 is an important election at many levels. It is for the US voters to decide who will occupy the white house, whether it will be four more years of President Donald Trump or will the Democrats have Joe Biden in the white house."
The outcome of the 2020 election is very crucial for the US mainly because of the level of Polarization that has taken place in the U.S over the last four years, particularly when Trump has been the President. It’s been bitter in a variety of ways and some very unsavoury and ugly aspects of America have unexpectedly come to the surface.
The second important issue is the relevance of the election for the US and its relationship with the major powers which includes-India, Germany, China, Japan, Russia and all the major powers in the global system and what was the track record in the first term of Donald Trump and what is likely to be the pattern in the next four years whether it is Trump or Joe Biden. "Here I think the most significant relationship is US-China and why I am focusing on that because it also has relevance for US-India and India-China. This is an election that is critical not just for the American voters but also for the global community and India in particular.
Interestingly, today as we are speaking, the race is neck to neck so far. Before when the election began on Tuesday morning in the US, most polls seemed to have given Joe Biden an advantage, they seem to suggest that Biden would win the election. But presently, it is uncertain and we can already see that there is a lot of tension in the air about whether it will be Biden or Trump will have a second term.
What changes can be expected in the US policies be it President Trump or Biden comes to power?
If Donald Trump comes back for a second term than in all likelihood, there would be a continuation of his policies particularly about ‘MAGA’ Make America Great Again. It is a kind of American version of ‘Atmanirbhar’.
He is going to increase the pressure that he thinks he can apply to China. I expect that there would be a lot of tension between the US and China particularly in terms of trade and economic issues also on security where India would be an affected party. The most critical thing will be that if Mr Trump comes into power for the second term, much of the turbulence that we associated with him in the first term whether it is globalization, trading arrangement etc, we will see a continuation of all those and also bringing jobs back to America that’s been his emphasis. Issues like immigration and visas are things that we will have to wait and watch.
Generally, a US president is more confident in the second term and we saw an example of that in relation India when we had George Bush as the President in 2005 when he began the raproshma with India on the nuclear issue, which was a big deal. He could do it only in the first term and not in the second term.
But if Trump does not come to the white house and Mr Joe Biden is elected, then we could expect a change in the way in which the US pursues both its domestic as well as foreign policies. If Biden wins the election and comes to power, the world will witness a 'change of nuance' in terms how American policy objectives are pursued and in the domestic context, there is a need for a lot of healing and that is where Mr Biden will invest his political energy along with the Vice President Ms Kamala Harris.
The real challenge for the United States is deep polarization and given the fact that it is a diverse society, it is also has a very strong profile for immigration. Most Americans agree that the immigrants have enriched American society, economy and these are the issues we're focusing on ‘The vision of America’ which seems to have muddied clearly during the 4 years of Donald Trump is something would be revived. These are some of the changes that we could expect if Biden becomes the next occupant in the White House.
The twin challenge for both India and the US-the world largest democracy and the oldest democracy is firstly COVID but also to ensure the welfare of the most vulnerable citizens. This is the biggest structural challenges for governance across the world and India and the United States.
It’s been a tensed year in terms of civil violence in the US, so do you think the Presidential election result will trigger violence in the United States?
There is a lot of anxiety if you look at the way the people has been commenting on the run-up to the election. Mr Trump as a President was stoking his constituency and already had claimed his victory. There was one aspect that I found disturbing in one of his recent tweets where he said: “Be careful they might steal this election”.
So without any evidence to suggest that there has been any transgression, he is already giving to his base that if the result is not favourable then the possibility is that there was some stealing and therefore the base has to respond which means a signal to the equivalent of the non-constitutional method.
The street is being mobilized those who support Trump and I think that is dangerous. We have seen that many of the stores in major towns, cities in the US are talking about locking up as they expect some degree of violence. This is something that could have a coercive impact in the years ahead. The African-Americans have not felt secure in Donald Trump’s America as he or she ought to.
In the face of Chinese aggression, who do you think is a better leader to deal with Chinese hegemonic strategies?
It is very ironic because Mr Donald Trump apart from all the charges that have been labelled against him for being vulgar and rude, what he has done is that he has made America aware of the challenge of China which is now becoming a strategic threat. Today, the US has undertaken a very fundamental review of its China policy. So on that score, interestingly I think Mr Trump has done something that previous American Presidents has not done. There would be a certain amount of traction for the US- India relationship in terms of how one can manage an assertive and aggressive China.
Biden’s approach to China would be traditional in the sense that he has been the VP for 8 years. He knows China better and he is been in American politics for much longer than Donald Trump has. I sense that he would pursue the same policy but perhaps with a different nuance, definitely greater finesse and politeness than what we associate with Mr Trump.
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