New Delhi: On polling day for the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh elections on February 10 for 58 seats across 11 districts, two noteworthy developments happened. First, the Allahabad High Court's decision in releasing on bail Union Minister Ajay Mishra Teni's son Ashish - prime accused in the Lakhimpur Khiri case. Second, the emergence of an unusual situation when BJP leaders including a state minister himself were heard alleging irregularities in the polling process.
If there is one big takeaway from the trends demonstrated in Phase-1, it is this: That the poll battle is emerging as an evenly poised, keenly contested and bipolar fight between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party-led coalition. The situation can also be interpreted as such: That the BJP is unlikely to retain its predominant position of 2017, when it won over 300 of the state assembly's 403 seats. For understandable reasons, therefore, the saffron party leaders have returned to the drawing board to rework strategies for the remaining six phases of the UP polls. While Ashish Mishra's bail has been granted by the Allahabad High Court, the development apparently helps the BJP to reach out to the Brahmin voters - who have reportedly been unhappy with the party. Ahead of the second phase of polling in Western UP on February 14, other social engineering formulations are hurriedly being worked out.
The Phase-1 messaging
The BJP can draw consolation from the fact that the voting percentage in Phase-1 (at 60.17 per cent) has been lower than that of the previous elections - which stood at 64.25 per cent. A higher voting percentage has conventionally been regarded as a vote for change. With a relatively low voter turnout, indications are that the ongoing campaign has so far been "wave-less". This having been said, the sub-text of the Phase-1 voting trends do not appear to be complimentary for the ruling party.
For instance, voting patterns indicate that low turnout has mostly been recorded in urban centres where the BJP has been traditionally strong, while the turnout in rural areas has been high. With approximately 41 per cent of voters residing in urban areas in constituencies where polling was held on Thursday, it can be assumed that core BJP voters were indifferent and stayed away from polling booths. Ground reports suggest that BJP candidates have been struggling even in seats considered traditional bastions such as Meerut Cantt and Agra. Former Uttarakhand Governor Baby Rani Maurya, according to reports, is herself struggling at Agra. While BJP's own internal assessments are that the party was unlikely to retain its peak performance of 2017, the question is this: Will the BJP's electoral damage in the region is substantial enough in Western UP?
Position of Strength
In 2017, the BJP had set the bar high by winning 53 of the 58 seats of the first phase, while the Opposition parties including the SP, BSP and the RLD had together been reduced to 5 seats. In the region, the BSP had polled a massive 46.3 per cent of votes against 21 per cent of the SP and 22 per cent of the BSP. The SP - seen as the main challenger - can hope to better its chances only if such arithmetical calculations work out: A reduction of approximately 15 per cent vote share of the BJP and a corresponding increase of 15 per cent in the vote share of the SP.
Socio-political equations in the last five years have changed because of multiple factors including the farmers' agitation and the unemployment and inflation issues. To his credit, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has played his game smartly by not succumbing to temptations to field too many Muslim candidates. In assembly constituencies coming within the Muzaffarnagar and Meerut districts, the SP, for instance, has not put up a single Muslim candidate. Controversial and powerful Muslim leaders such as the Kadir Rana family of Muzaffarnagar or Imran Masood in Saharanpur were denied the SP ticket. He is also seen as having tempered his core support base among the Yadavs, who are known for their loud political posturing.
The outcome of all this: The BJP's attempts to revive public memories of the SP's earlier "Goonda and mafia rule" does not appear to have succeeded in the same manner. But, for all the adverse circumstances that are threatening to damage the party's prospects, the BJP can still claim to be fighting the UP battle from a position of strength. In winning over 300 seats in the last assembly elections, the saffron party established a lead of over 100 buffer seats across the state. The SP-led coalition has done well to have emerged as the main challenger. But, the question is this: Have his efforts been adequate enough?
Of Muslims and Dalits
In the 55 seats of the nine Western UP districts scheduled for the poll in the second phase on February 14, Muslims comprise approximately 27 per cent of the electorate, while the population of the community stands at a high of 45 per cent in some pockets of Rampur and Saharanpur. Dalits are in substantial numbers too and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party has also been traditionally strong in the region. Even at the time when the BJP had swept Western UP in 2017, the BSP candidates had been placed second in 20 of the 55 seats of Phase-2.
While the Muslim-Jat combination is expected to work out to the advantage of the SP alliance in Phase-2, Mayawati does have the potential to spoil Akhilesh's game. Notwithstanding the BJP's demographic disadvantage in the region, the party does stand a chance to make gains in a scenario when Opposition votes get divided. Interestingly, the BSP has put up Muslim candidates in as many as 16 assembly seats in Phase-2. In some constituencies, major parties excluding the BJP have all put up Muslim candidates. Apparently, the BJP hopes for Phase-2 rests on the possibility of the division of "secular votes".
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat.)
