New Delhi: As India started a gradual unlocking process, experts in India’s health domain on Tuesday cautioned that unlocking should be reversed immediately if there is a sudden surge of cases in any area or a zone.
“We are in between the second and third wave of Covid-19 pandemic. Unlocking processes that have started in a few states with a decreasing number of new cases; must be implemented with utmost social and administrative discipline. We also need to continue Covid-19 principal strategies like containment of transmission especially super spreader events; early detection of cases and contacts; tracking variants of concern; preparing healthcare infrastructure and workforce for future wave(s) and acceleration of national vaccination program. Unlocking should be reversed immediately if there is a sudden surge of cases in any area or a zone,” Dr Tamorish Kole, a senior health expert and president of Asian Society for Emergency Medicine told ETV Bharat in an exclusive interview.
As per health ministry data, states across India have been witnessing a decreasing trend of positive cases with only 209 districts across the country are at present reporting daily cases of more than 100. The number of such districts witnessing more than 1,000 daily cases was 531 in the period from April 28 to May 4.
There is a continuous decrease in cases since India reported a peak on May 7. There is an almost 79 per cent decline in cases since the highest reported peak in daily new cases, the health ministry data said. There is a decline of 33 per cent in average daily new cases since last week. India’s total recovery rate now stands at 94.3 per cent. There is also a decline in the weekly positivity rate up to 70 per cent in the last 5 weeks.
“From 21.4 per cent in between 4-10 May, the positivity has now come down to 6.3 per cent in the period from 1-7 June,” the health ministry data said. Dr Kole also said that vaccination is a big asset presently available with India to fight the pandemic.
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“Centre’s decision for centralised vaccine procurement is a welcome step toward vaccine equity. Those who cannot afford will not have this barrier now. Accessibility is another challenge to overcome, particularly for people residing in remote areas. Every single Indian should be vaccinated,” Dr Kole said.
As per health ministry data, as of now, 23.62 crore jabs have been given to people from all age groups. Echoing the view, Dr Suneela Garg, Prof of Excellence, Community Medicine, Moulana Azad Medical College said that with the availability of vaccines by December majority of the Indians will get the jabs.
“From June 25 onwards, we will have more vaccines. Many more companies are coming to the market including Sputnik, Biological E, Pfizer, Moderna and ZyCoV-D…and in December we will be having 200 crore doses of vaccines,” said Dr Garg who is also a member of the Lancet Commission, Covid India task force.
As the genomic sequencing centres across India keep detecting new variants, Dr Garg said, “We need to be careful about various variants of the Covid19 pandemic.” Referring to a new Covid-19 variant B.1.1.28.2 detected by the National Institute of Virology, Pune, Dr Garg said that the variant has been detected through genome sequencing of samples from international travellers from the United Kingdom and Brazil.
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AIIMS director Dr Randeep Guleria further cautioned to adopt proper Covid-19 appropriate behaviour to avert any possible third wave of the pandemic.
“As Covid19 is a respiratory virus, many people remain susceptible for infection, and in such a situation waves keep coming…However, by vaccination and natural immunity we can fight the pandemic,” said Dr Guleria.
Amid fear of a possible third wave, Dr Guleria reiterated that any possible third wave is unlikely to affect the children. “In fact, our data also suggest that infection among children is not serious. However, if any hospitalization takes place it is due to the comorbid condition of the children,” added Dr Guleria.
Meanwhile, Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in the Union Health Ministry said that India with its fight against Covid19 stands at a far better position globally. Referring to Worldometer data, Agarwal said that India’s Covid cases (20,822) per million population, active cases (945) per million population and death (252) per million population is amongst the lowest in the world.
He also compared data about India’s strategy to fight the Covid-19 pandemic with the rest of the world. “Population of Uttar Pradesh is 22.46 crore and the population of Brazil is 21.39 crore. However, UP has 1697352 cumulative Covid cases whereas Brazil has 16907425 cumulative Covid cases,” Agarwal added.
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