Uttar Pradesh Polls: Tough test for BJP in central UP, Bundelkhand

In 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had trounced the traditional strongholds of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in central UP and Bundelkhand by winning 49 of 59 seats. There are at least 30 seats in this region where Yadavs are the dominant section, writes senior journalist Ratan Mani Lal.

As the Assembly election moves to central Uttar Pradesh, there is a now-or-never frenzy among political parties to win new ground or retain existing one, for the trends indicated by the first two rounds are likely to impact the next one. Polling is scheduled in the third round on February 20 in 59 constituencies in 16 districts. The seats are spread across the Braj region to Bundelkhand, and touching Awadh, with ditricts like Hathras, Kasganj, Etah, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Farrukhabad, Kannauj, Etawah, Auraiya, Jalaun, Kanpur Nagar, Kanpur Dehat, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Jhansi and Lalitpur. For the record, there are 627 candidates in fray in this round with 2.15 crore voters.

Many of these areas have been strongholds of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) prior to the 2017 election. But in 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 49 of these seats while the SP-Congress alliance had bagged 9 seats. In this region, there are at least 30 seats where Yadavs are the dominant section. The Karhal seat in Mainpuri is in focus this time as former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is contesting from what is perceived as a Yadav stronghold and homeground to the Mulayam family.

Even Shivpal Yadav, the erstwhile-estranged uncle and present-day ally of Akhilesh, is contesting from an adjacent seat of Jaswantnagar. Patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav made a rare appearance along with Akhilesh and Shivpal in what is seen as a strong signal of unity in the family. The trio was seen together after five years.

Other candidates to watch out for are IPS officer turned BJP candidate Asim Arun in Kannauj, Louis Khurshid (wife of former Congress leader Salman Khurshid) from Farrukhabad, SPS Baghel, a former aide of Akhilesh against him in Karhal, and a UP minister Satish Mahana from Maharajpur, Kanpur.

BJP worries

This is what has been worrying the BJP as party insiders feel a united front put up by the Yadav family may make it difficult to woo Yadav voters as had happened in 2017. Akhilesh has been campaigning aggressively in this region and for the BJP, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath too has been spending a lot of time in campaigning in this region. Incidentally, the gap of six days between the second phase (February 14) and the third (February 20) is the largest and both SP and BJP have been trying to take advantage of this.

The BJP has been raising issues of dynastic politics in its campaigning in this region since members of the extended Yadav family have held dozens of posts from the block level to the state level after getting elected on them. During the SP regime in the state, this used to be a privileged area with Saifai, the native village of the Mulayam Singh Yadav family, being in the centre of social, cultural and political activities. After the BJP came to power, not only the region lost its importance but the sense of power of the local people also became considerably diluted.

The appearance of Mulayam with his brother and son is believed to be a message to the people of this region that if they come together to vote for the SP, the path to making a government would become easier. As far as Bundelkhand region is concerned, at one time it used to be the stronghold of the BSP, since Dalits constitute nearly 22 per cent of the population. The region has been won by the BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha, 2017 Assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections with no party offering any challenge.

This region comprises the districts of Jhansi, Lalitpur, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Banda and Chitrakoot - polling in the last two is scheduled in the next round on February 23. In 2012, BSP had won 7 out of 19 seats with 26.2% vote share; but in 2017, the BJP, for the first time, made a clean sweep by bagging all seats in these seven districts.

BSP hopeful

The BSP has been pinning its hopes on this region for a revival of its fortunes. The BSP supremo Mayawati has held rallies in Orai and Banda and her core supporters, the Jatavs, are believed to be strongly behind her, giving much hope to the party. Interestingly, the SP has not had any spectacular success in this region and the SP-BSP alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, too, had failed to make any dent into the BJP hold over the region.

While the BSP has been raising issues like elimination of dacoit gangs and reviving the images of the combined might of Dalits, Muslims and other Hindus, the BJP's campaign has been focussed on water supply projects and the proposed defence corridor from Jhansi to Chitrakoot. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, has addressed several rallies in this region and the BJP expects a more favourable response in this round as compared to the first and second rounds. Interestingly, so do the SP and BSP, all for different reasons. This makes it an interesting round as it could give a decisive edge to the party which eventually rules the state.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat.)