Kolkata: West Bengal is heading for the last and eighth phase of assembly polls on Thursday when polling will be conducted across 35 assembly constituencies scattered over the four districts of Kolkata, Malda, Murshidabad and Birbhum.
Out of these 35 assembly constituencies, seven are in Kolkata where the victory of Trinamool Congress is almost a foregone conclusion. Though BJP has some prospects in the Jorasanko assembly constituency in Kolkata, where there is a sizeable non- Bengali population, but the victory in these regions for the saffron camp is not at all certain. Political observers too predict clear victory for Trinamool Congress from these seven constituencies in Kolkata.
Of the remaining 28 constituencies, six are in Malda and 11 each in Murshidabad and Birbhum. In these three pockets, a section of Trinamool leadership is quite worried about their prospects.
For quite some time, Malda and Murshidabad had been bastions of the Congress party. However, after the 2016 West Bengal assembly polls, Congress' organizational strength has plummeted substantially in these two districts. But still, Congress can pose a threat to the BJP and TMC in the minority-dominated constituencies.
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Even in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in the midst of Trinamool supremacy and BJP wave, Congress was able to retain one Lok Sabha seat each from Malda and Murshidabad.
This time Congress has an alliance with Left Front and Abbas Siddique's All India Secular Front (AISF). Now the question is how far the United Alliance can make a dent in the minority votes in these two districts and how much will it gain in minority votes. It is pertinent to note that BJP was able to bag the Malda (North) Lok Sabha constituency from Congress.
In Birbhum district also, BJP has been able to substantially expand its organizational network since 2019. The influence of Trinamool’s Birbhum district president, Anubrata Mondal has also been curtailed substantially.
In addition, just before the polls, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has roped in dynamic IPS officer, Nagendra Tripathi as Birbhum’s district police superintendent just before the 8th phase of polls. The ruling Trinamool cannot fully be assured of their prospects in their once stronghold Birbhum district.
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BJP leadership is also aware of their lesser organizational strength in the constituencies that are going for polls in the eighth phase. Addressing a presser in Kolkata on Monday, BJP national president JP Nadda said that BJP has already secured its requisite majority at the end of the seventh phase of polls. Political observers feel that this is a psychological game to influence the voters at the last moment.
On the other hand, the chief minister, Mamata Banerjee and other senior Trinamool Congress leaders too have claimed that they have crossed the magic figure after the sixth phase of polls and the last two phases are meant for just increasing the number.
Political analysts believe that in terms of statistics, Trinamool, to a great extent and United Alliance, to a lesser extent is ahead of BJP in the 8th phase. However, they also feel that when the winds of change are too strong then statistics really don’t work.
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