New Delhi: Two recent developments are indicative of the subterranean political trends emerging in Western Uttar Pradesh. First, Home Minister Amit Shah's description of Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) leader Jayant Chaudhary as the "right man in the wrong party"and his repeated offers to Chaudhary to join the saffron alliance. Second, the decision of the "Samyukt Kisan Morcha" (a confederation of 57 farmer's outfits) to campaign for the defeat of the BJP candidates. But more of this later.
The political significance of Western UP -where polling is scheduled in the first and second phases on February 10 and 14 respectively - can hardly be understated. Comprising 130-odd seats of the UP assembly strength of 403 members- the region has remained a big catchment area for the ruling BJP. In the 2014 parliamentary elections - contested in the backdrop of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots -the saffron party had swept the region; following this up with remarkable victories in the 2017 assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In 2017, the BJP had won 104 seats in the state's western flanks. So, what can be the basis of growing perceptions that the region will witness tight contests in the upcoming polls?
What has changed?
Events of recent weeks have not been altogether complimentary from the BJP point of view. In about a dozen cases, BJP candidates have been driven out by angry villagers. Party MLA Sangeet Som had had to beat a hasty retreat after being booed and waved black flags by villagers in Daurala in Meerut district. Former union minister Mahesh Sharma met the same fate when he recently went visiting in a remote area of Gautam Budh Nagar. In districts including Saharanpur and Bulandshahr, villagers have put up buntings and posters declaring intentions to prohibit the entry of BJP candidates. At the same time, youth of the dominant 'Jat' community - staunch BJP supporters until recently - appear to be turning restless. After the 'lathi charge' by the state police against youth protesting irregularities of the railway recruitment examinations at Prayagraj, the unemployment issue has been emerging as a political campaign tool.
All this is hardly to say that the BJP's position has been weakened beyond repair. But this much can be said: The political turf in Western UP has become evenly poised and the BJP's status of "invincibility" is being compromised.
Now on, any party or formation that plays its cards more deftly will come up trumps.
Impact of Farmers Stir
Since 2014, the BJP had established it's stronghold in Western UP largely on account of its success at merging the developmental plank with the core "Hindutva"ideology. The 11 month long stir by farmer's organisations against the three farm laws has apparently been threatening to destabilise the saffron party's meticulously crafted social engineering formula. Following the withdrawal of the three laws, farmers outfits and leaders no longer have the sharpness or potency to effectively impact the electoral outcome in UP. But this much has happened: Farm issues have come to the centre-stage of the political debate in the poll-bound state. In previous elections, the BJP has been taking the lead in setting the campaign agenda. But this situation appears to have changed. For instance, after Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav announced 300 units of free electricity, the Yogi Adityanath government came up with the response of reducing the electricity bill by half. Yadav has also promised a guarantee on Minimum Support Price for farm produce and also announced that his government, if elected, would set up a "rolling fund"to enable payment of dues to farmers without delay. The Yogi government has been silent in such matters.
Hits and Misses
Notwithstanding heinous crimes that have happened at Hathras, Unnao, Gorakhpur or more recently at Bulandshahr, the Yogi Government's claims on ensuring an improved law and order situation - against the "goonda raj" of the SP - has largely been finding resonance among the electorate in Western UP.The BJP also is seeming to score on infrastructure development. But the fault line is this: The Yogi government's excess dependence on the bureaucracy and the state Police in particular - which has been alleged to have carried forward the "thoko niti" (Encounter policy). Given Yogi's centralised style of functioning, party MLAs and even state ministers are perceived as having remained powerless - and are now having to bear the brunt of the villagers in rural areas. Even deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya was booed in his constituency sometime back.
The Upshot
From being entirely absent from the political scene until about a year and a half ago, Yadav has now emerged the main challenger to the BJP in what is emerging as a bipolar contest. The BJP leadership appears to be working on a strategy to split up - or at least cause confusion - within the SP-RLD alliance. The other - and often ignored factor- is this: That if Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati performs better than expectations, Yadav's big dream of assuming power in Lucknow could fall flat. The BJP itself - given its massive cadre strength, financial muscle and a battery of political leaders led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi - does have the capacity to turn things around. But, as of now, the SP-RLD combine is seen as making gains in the state's Western flanks.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat.)
