Hyderabad: An imminent third wave of Covid could peak in a span of two months time — by October — which could hit children as well as adults, warned a committee of experts of the National Insititute of Disaster Management (NIDM). What is worrying is the experts' group also cautioned that "paediatric facilities — doctors, staff, equipment like ventilators, ambulances etc. are nowhere close to what may be required in case a large number of children become infected."
The committee set up the directions of the Home Ministry in its report that was submitted to the PMO called for stepping up vaccination among children with comorbidities and those with disabilities.
A detailed study, 'Third Wave Preparedness: Children Vulnerability and Recovery' called for urgent measures that the Centre needs to undertake on war-footing measures. It warns the third wave of COVID is inevitable and that it could cross-age groups and may put children at similar risk as adults. While some experts warned that a third wave could hit within 12-16 weeks, others are worried about newer mutations that can weaken existing vaccines.
Children and vaccination
The government on 27 June 2021 has suggested that COVID vaccination for children (12-18 years) may begin in July or August. According to Dr. NK Arora, Chairman, National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), the trials for Zydus-Cadila are almost complete and the government told the Supreme Court that its administration to children from 12-18 years can start soon subject to approval from the Drug Controller General of India.
As per Dr. Randeep Guleria (Director, AIIMS), Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin could be available for children in India around September when data from Phase two and three trials for the age group of 2-18 years is expected.
If and when the Pfizer vaccine (the only COVID vaccine being administered to children worldwide) gets approval in India that too can be a viable option for vaccinating children.
Vaccinating children would be a milestone in our fight against this pandemic and children can resume learning and can be expected to go back to school.
The 'Reuters’ opinion survey of 40 experts: arrival by October 2021 has forecasted that the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to hit India between July 15 and October 13, 2021. A peak during the first two weeks of September 10 is anticipated.
According to Prof Shahid Jameel, an expert virologist, there is no definitive answer to if and when a third wave can hit the country. “All would depend upon how we follow COVID appropriate behaviour as the country opens up, how quickly we can provide good single-dose vaccine coverage, and whether a far more infectious variant emerges as a driver.”
School reopening and third wave
With many states like Punjab, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh reopening the schools and many others planning to do so (Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh), the looming threat of the third wave of unvaccinated children has again become a point of contention across the country. Offline attendance has been kept optional and flexible with guidelines for schools to adhere to all COVID protocols, the report said.
As per WHO, this decision should be driven by data and safety measures and must address the concerns of students, parents, caregivers and teachers.
Dr. Randeep Guleria had also advocated the resumption of physical classes of primary schools provided all the adults involved have full vaccine coverage. He also cautioned: “Children mostly have mild infections and some even are asymptomatic, they, however, can be carriers of the infection, which is dangerous for the medically compromised section of society.”
