New Delhi: In yet another major twist in the political milieu of Nepal, the Supreme Court has scrapped the unification of the Nepal Communist Party formed through the merger of Oli led Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and Prachanda led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) in 2018.
The decision by the Supreme Court, just hours before the first session of the House of Representatives, came as a big blow to the oldest democratic party and is likely to have serious political implications on the Himalayan nation.
ETV Bharat spoke to foreign affairs experts to get an idea of the further implications and what it means for India.
Scrapping of NCP has given Oli greater manoeuvrability: EXPERT Speaking to ETV Bharat, India’s envoy and former ambassador, SD Muni said, “By this decision of the court, the Maoist have been separated technically from the UML. There is no unity of the party, which reduces the Maoist into the minority and gives the UML majority. The problem is that Oli can claim that he is the leader of the UML, but UML is in itself not entirely for Oli. As I have mentioned earlier, manipulation is going on in Parliament. Parliament is to meet on 10th March and what happens next is remain to be seen, but the decision has disrupted the situation and tactically for a short while, it has given Oli greater manoeuvrability”.
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On being asked about the implication on the India-Nepal relationship, Muni pointed out that according to his assessment, tacitly and quietly, India is supporting KP Sharma Oli and it doesn’t want Prachanda to come to power.
“There is no possibility of any other groups coming to power, so it is quite possible that India would want other groups like Nepali Congress or the Tarai party to support Oli because if Maoists are separated, this is what the government’s strategy is”.
According to reports, on Sunday, a two-member bench of the Supreme Court ruled that the allocation of the NCP name to the new party that was formed after the merger was illegal because the name was already allotted to a party led by Rishi Kattel. Therefore, the court ruled that the current ruling party named NCP stood “dismissed”.
The Nepal Communist Party was the ruling political party in Nepal and the largest communist party in South Asia and the third-largest in Asia from its formation in the year 2018 till the dissolution in 2020. NCP was founded on May 17, 2018, from the unification of two leftist parties, Nepal Communist Party formed by the merger of Oli led Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and Prachanda led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist centre).
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Former ambassador Jitendra Tripathi says that the situation in Nepal is dicey. Though Oli still has the majority as the largest party in the house, he cannot form a government without the support of other parties.
“Leaders of the United Madhesi Democratic Front including- Mahendra Yadav, Mahant Thakur also are against both the communist parties. In this scenario, the better possibility perhaps is that NCP faction led by Prachanda and Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress joins hand together and also get the support of one of the two Madhesi parties, to oust Oli from the post, which is more likely. And in that scenario, I think it is better for India because as history says, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been better for India than Oli”, Tripathi explained.
“But the problem is, Prachanda also had changed his stance very swiftly in the past. In early 2000, Prachanda asked India to support him to gain power. Again last year, dissention occurred between the two factions of NCP and the peculiar situation was that Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal both had been accusing each other of working at the behest of India to destabilize the situation. Everything said we must not forget that when the controversy of map occurred between the two nations, Dahal was the one who accused Oli of acting undiplomatically and without consultation of other leaders of the party.
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In this scenario, it seems that Pushpa Kamal Dahal will be more pragmatic and sympathetic towards India than Oli. Therefore, probably, Dahal aka Prachanda will invite other parties to form the government, thus ousting Oli, and in that scenario, India will be in the position to gain”, Tripathi underlines.
The year 2020 has been tiring, terrifying, tragic for Nepal and Nepal’s political scenario and democracy underwent some extraordinary changes with Prime Minister Oli’s decision to dissolve the Parliament on December 20 l, calling for fresh elections for April and May this year. This step was approved by President Bidya Devi Bhandari.
This move by Oli has dragged the Himalayan nation towards political instability and it can be viewed that the future of Nepal’s democracy is at high stake.
Earlier this month, Nepal’s Supreme Court struck down Oli’s decision to dissolve the lower house of Parliament. India had described Oli’s sudden move to dissolve the Parliament and call for fresh elections as an ‘internal matter’ that is for the country to decide as per its democratic process.
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