Presidential elections: Will 2022 assembly poll victories ease the way for BJP?

In the 2017 presidential elections, BJP candidate Ramnath Kovind had received support from many non-Congress parties. A total of 4,896 MPs and MLAs had cast their votes during these elections. The then NDA candidate Ramnath Kovind had secured 7,02,044 votes out of 10,98,903 defeating his rival Meira Kumar who could only secure 3,67,314 votes.

New Delhi: After the assembly elections in five state assembly sates, the political parties are now bracing themselves for the Presidential elections. Though the BJP registered an impressive overall win in the assembly elections, the seats it managed to secured are comparatively lesser in number than before. This discrepancy in numbers will potentially benefit the opposition in Rajya Sabha, while the BJP will also have to look for allies outside of the NDA alliance to confirm a big victory in the presidential election.

Will 2022 victory in four assemblies ease the way for BJP

Will 2022 victory in four assemblies ease the way for BJP

In the 2017 presidential elections, BJP candidate Ramnath Kovind had received support from many non-Congress parties. A total of 4,896 MPs and MLAs had cast their votes during these elections. The then NDA candidate Ramnath Kovind had secured 7,02,044 votes out of 10,98,903 defeating his rival Meira Kumar who could only secure 3,67,314 votes.

Speaking of the state-wise vote values that would play a crucial role in the presidential elections, the MLAs of Uttar Pradesh are the strongest in terms of vote value, with one vote valued at 83,824. In 2017 in Uttar Pradesh, Kovind got 335 votes and Meira Kumar got 65 votes. But because the NDA has just 273 seats this time, BJP has 62 votes less than in 2017, putting it at a potential loss.

The total value of the votes of the members of both the Houses of Parliament in the constituency in the presidential election is 5,49,408, while that of the legislators of all the states is 5,49,495. The total value of votes thus is 10,98,903. The value of legislators' votes, which is determined by the population of the state and the number of legislators, varies from state to state. For example, the value of vote of an MLA from Uttar Pradesh is 83,824, while the value of vote of a MLA from Sikkim is only seven, while that for a Maharashtra MLA is 50,400.

The BJP has around 1,431 MLAs in assemblies across the country, while Congress comes second with 753 MLAs. Non-BJP and non-Congress parties have a total of 1,923 MLAs. After the victory in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party has 1 per cent, TMC has 3.05 per cent, Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP has 4 per cent, TRS in Telangana has 2.2 per cent, while the BJD has about 3 per cent votes. The NDA has 334 members in the Lok Sabha and 115 in the Rajya Sabha, but only 106 members of the Rajya Sabha can vote in the presidential election as the nominated members do not have the right to vote. In 2017, 522 MPs had voted in favor of Ramnath Kovind, with the value of each MP's vote fixed at 708.

In the last elections, Kovind got 59 votes while Meira Kumar got 11 votes from Uttarakhand. Now, the BJP has 47 MLAs, since 12 MLAs in Uttarakhand have also been reduced. Meanwhile, the BJP has lost a lot of seats in Jharkhand and there are more Congress MLAs in Chhattisgarh than in BJP compared to the last presidential elections. In 2017, though Ramnath Kovind had received the lead from Jammu and Kashmir, however, the erstwhile state was downgraded to a union territory.

Besides, the number of opposition parties in Rajya Sabha will increase by July. Experts believe that if non-NDA political parties mobilize, the BJP-led NDA will need 1.5 per cent votes to win. However, it is hoped that like the last election, this time too Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal and YSR Congress can support NDA candidates from Assembly to Parliament. This might be one way for the BJP to escape the possible loss in the Presidential Elections.