New Delhi: For the BJP-led NDA, Assam has been bagged, done and dusted after encountering the vicissitudes of political climate that the hurly burly of an election brings.
After taking up a good tumultuous seven days in deciding the chief minister which included a fast trip to New Delhi by prime contenders Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma to consult the top BJP leadership, and Sarma being sworn in on Monday, the challenges—led by the exploding cases of Covid—are already casting long shadows.
Covid 2019
The entire electoral process of campaigning, voting and counting and the subsequent unhindered Assamese Bohag Bihu celebrations in mid-April will undoubtedly add to the state’s Covid numbers that are already cascading with signs that the worst is yet to come.
On Saturday, for the second consecutive day, Assam reported more than 5,000 new cases even as the positivity rate edged towards the 8 per cent mark after testing about 65,000 individuals.
Therefore the new CM’s immediate priority will be to arrest the rising Covid numbers and to ensure several things that include erection of an architecture that ensures availability of medical treatment, drugs, equipment and oxygen, medical personnel including doctors and staff who are already fatigued and stretched.
Mandated with the state’s health ministry for years, Sarma may be the most qualified to spearhead the state’s battle with Covid.
Besides managing the huge expectations, grim challenges lay in store for the state’s economy.
Unemployment & Investment
Assam has a huge unemployment problem. Every year, about 15 lakh youth add to the numbers. The unemployment rate is about 8.1 per cent as opposed to the national unemployment rate of 6.1 per cent. The state’s female unemployment rate is 13.9 per cent, again higher than the national female unemployment rate of 5.7 per cent.
In this backdrop, Sarma’s promise of generating one lakh jobs a year may not be sufficient even if implemented. The state government, central PSUs like ONGC and OIL, and the central government, in that order continue to be the sole provider of jobs.
A conventional solution for unemployment lies in increasing employment opportunities which theoretically can be brought upon by increasing investment.
But for a state that has no private sector worth its name and an image of being an investment-unfriendly destination thanks to decades of insurgency and attuned to a socio-political culture of bandhs and agitations may not look attractive to a potential investor.
The ongoing pandemic and its after-effects would also pose a key obstacle to an economic uplift.
In the Niti Aayog’s export preparedness index, Assam is ranked a lowly 28 among 36 states and union territories with a score of 22.81. Gujarat tops the list with the highest score of 75.19.
The new CM therefore has his work-sheet focus cut out: Bring down unemployment, bring in investment and enhance the image of the state as an investment friendly destination.
Infrastructure, Floods and Agriculture
One way of increasing investment and adding employment can be infrastructure development in which the state is already deficient. The key infra development activity is road and highway building. But in Assam, there is only a small window for such activity because of nature’s travails.
The ravage of the monsoon rains of Assam takes away about four months of productive activity during which period road building is simply not possible.
The new CM will also have to engage with the BJP-NDA government’s priority project of developing Assam as a gateway to Southeast Asia as part of the Act East Policy (AEP) but which till now has largely remained on paper. The government will also have to engage with the changing political developments in Myanmar which is key to India’s AEP.
Nor is it possible to change the basic character of the agrarian-based economy. The possibility of scaling up the state’s agriculture to a commercial level is near impossible due to the fragmented nature of land holdings in Assam.
With the average land holding being very small the economies of scale are difficult to apply. Consolidation of such fragmented land holdings is easier said than done and is fraught with pitfalls.
Pending Political Issues
With numerous ethnic communities, multi-religious and multi-cultural entities, Assam is a veritable cauldron of aspirations and expectations. The insurgency issues which have plagued the state for decades are yet to be fully sorted out.
After numerous parleys, an accord with the pro-talk ULFA is yet to fructify, as are issues relating to safeguarding the culture and rights of the Assamese as was promised in the Assam Accord of 1985. The NRC and CAA are also issues that may engage the government in the times to come.
In other words, being elected to power in the state may have been the relatively easier task for the BJP. The real challenge begins now. (END)
