Hyderabad: The exit pollsters have given their verdict through post-poll projections and have more or less shown unanimity for Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala but are divided over the West Bengal election results.
In an exclusive interview with ETV Bharat, Sanjay Kumar, Director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) said that there is unanimity between various exit pollsters on the predictions about Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam but they are divided over the fate of West Bengal assembly elections. He believes that TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee will comfortably make a comeback.
Read:| West Bengal Assembly Elections: What do the exit polls say?
Elections were conducted in eight phases in West Bengal for the 292 assembly seats to allow free movement of security forces from one place to another so that violence is curbed. But Kumar is critical of the Election Commission’s decision of holding elections in eight phases. He argues that the time which is given to security forces in making inter constituency movements and for the planning allows equally to anti-social elements to plan for subversive activities.
“Too many phases is not good planning. West Bengal elections should have been held in two or three phases which would have been sufficient,” says Prof Kumar.
All the top leaders of BJP campaigned massively in the eastern state of Bengal to bring down the TMC but it seems Amit Shah’s "ab ki baar 200 paar" is going to be a distant dream. The CSDS Director believes it too. He says the "BJP has also accepted that the TMC is winning the elections in Bengal." But, in the same breath, he cautions to not consider it BJP’s defeat. The only difference is that the BJP is "not" coming to power. “BJP had only 3 MLAs in 2016 and if they manage to get 110 seats by earning 30% vote share, it is a big achievement for BJP,” he says.
Looking at the surge in coronavirus cases, followed by crippling of health infrastructure is assumed to have made no change in the voting behaviour in the state. Kumar says that it did not impact the voting choices as voters had made up their mind quite early.
It is primarily the women vote bank that has made it easy for Mamata in the election as they comprise, roughly, half the number of voters. Women voters have given the advantage to the TMC in West Bengal, believes Kumar.
There is also the anti-incumbency factor that has worked against Mamata this time, which is why TMC's 211 seats in the 2016 assembly elections would be reduced to roughly around 160 this time. The party is slated to lose about 45-50 seats compared to the 2016 state elections.
Prof Kumar says that people are being made to believe that Mamata Banerjee has given more importance to Muslims at the cost of Hindus. "Mamata has been fair to Hindus and has been generous to them. Muslims constitute a significant number of voters in West Bengal and Mamata did get the maximum of the vote share of the community," he adds.
Kumar adds, “I sense that it is not a tight election. TMC has an edge over BJP by 2-3 per cent. TMC will get a comfortable majority. It has a lead over BJP in vote share also. Congress and other parties have not performed well and they have cut into votes of BJP in West Bengal as the polls were majorly bi-polar."
According to the Republic-CNX exit poll, it will be a close fight between TMC and BJP in West Bengal. The Times Now-Cvoter predicted a clear lead for the TMC.
Read:| BJP confident of forming govt in Bengal by winning 200+ seats
