Thiruvananthapuram: The run-up to the 2021 Assembly elections in Kerala, the only State in India governed by the Left, is closely watched by the whole nation as everyone eyes on whether the Left government would continue for the second consecutive term or come to an end in India’s only Left- ruled State.
For the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPM) to hope for a comeback at the national level after being shattered in the traditionally Left fortresses of Tripura and West Bengal earlier, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) must be re-elected to govern the State in the ensuing assembly elections for a second time.
Same is the state of the Congress party, which is the major opposition to the Left in Kerala. Even as the Congress lost power in the previously Congress-governed States in India, a comeback in Kerala is a prestige issue for the Congress. However, the unexpected breakthrough gained by the CPM-led LDF in the local body elections in Kerala in December 2020, is sure to tremble the Congress leaders.
As Rahul Gandhi, a national leader for the Congress, represents Kerala in the Parliament, there is additional pressure on the Congress party at a national level to emerge victorious in the Kerala Assembly elections.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has just one legislator in the Assembly presently. The BJP has won at least 15 seats and has received second highest votes in about 40 constituencies in the local body polls. The BJP is trying to play all its cards to weaken Congress in the State so that the party could make major inroads and emerge as the only opponent to the Left.
LDF aims for a second consecutive term
The trailblazing win achieved by the LDF in the local body polls in December 2020 boosts the confidence of the Left front in the run-up for the Assembly polls coming up in another two months.
After being decimated in 19 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats rendering an ‘unexpected’ massive defeat in the 2019 Parliamentary elections, the recent local body poll results have given the ruling LDF a resurrection and hope, literally.
The LDF has been able to win a large majority of local self-governance institutions across Kerala and gained a vote share of 40.2 per cent in 2020 local body polls. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the vote per cent stood at 35.2.
The Left was attacked just before the local body polls with the case of gold smuggling through diplomatic baggage channel at Thiruvananthapuram Airport, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s former Principal Secretary and senior IAS officer M Sivashankar being named as a key accused in the case and being remanded thereafter, and these allegations gaining national attention.
The Central investigation agencies took up the investigation and are probing the different aspects of the case through the National Investigation Agency (NIA), the Customs and the Enforcement Directorate. State Minister KT Jaleel was also summoned for interrogation in connection with the case by the Enforcement Department earlier. The Chief Minister’s additional private secretary C M Raveendran and the Speaker’s Additional Personal Assistant were summoned by the Enforcement Department to elicit details in connection with the case.
The CPM was put being on the defensive over and again when corruption allegations also came up in connection with the Life Mission Project, one of the key welfare projects highlighted by the LDF government.
Even amid all the allegations and controversies, the Government effectively engaged in welfare activities and reached out to the people with the welfare pensions and other measures, be it during the floods or the pandemic. This determination to ensure the welfare of the people during the COVID lockdown, other outbreaks and natural calamities have tremendously helped the Left gain support from the common people, leading to the scintillating win in the local body polls. The LDF hopes to repeat the same progress pattern in the upcoming Assembly elections.
It is a life or death battle for the UDF
The opposition in Kerala - United Democratic Front (UDF)- led by the Congress, which had expected a sweep in the local body polls, failed miserably despite projecting and campaigning the anti-government sentiments.
The UDF which had gained 47.25 per cent votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections plunged to 37.09 per cent votes in the recent local body elections.
The weak grass-root level organisational ability, flaws in the selection of candidates, lack of unity and infighting within the party led by two factions under Oommen Chandy and Ramesh Chennithala are evaluated to have badly affected the UDF.
Besides, the alliance with the Welfare Party of India - a political arm of Jamaat e Islami - only proved damaging to the UDF. Even in the traditionally UDF fortresses in Central Kerala, the Christians seemed to have drifted away from the UDF in the name of this association.
The Left had cut the ground from under the UDF’s feet when Jose K Mani, son of K M Mani a long time Congress leader and UDF Minister in Central regions, allied with the LDF following severe group disputes within Congress.
The weak leadership of Ramesh Chennithala, who has been the UDF opposition leader for almost five years now, and former UDF Chief Minister Oommen Chandy staying away and being aloof at the organisational level are said to have contributed to the UDF’s loss.
It was after two and half years of Mullappally Ramachandran appointment as the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president, office bearers were chosen. In effect, Congress in Kerala had remained a one-man army with only the president to lead the State Committee until the local body polls.
But, the miserable failure it encountered in the polls seems to have awakened UDF from the deep slump, when there is hardly three months remaining for the Assembly elections.
Tariq Anwar, the All India Congress Committee (AICC) General Secretary in charge of Kerala, rushed to the State and evaluated the situation soon after the election results. Tariq Anwar filed a report to Congress leader Sonia Gandhi detailing the reasons for the failure in Kerala.
Based on this report, Congress leaders Oommen Chandy, Ramesh Chennithala, Opposition leader, and Mullappally Ramachandran, KPCC president, were summoned to Delhi by the Congress High Command. The High Command directed Oommen Chandy to lead the UDF in the upcoming Assembly elections. But, the effect of this change in leadership is yet to be seen.
The AICC has deployed Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, former Goa Chief Minister Luizinho Faleiro and former Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president Dr G Parameshwara as observers in Kerala for the Assembly elections. As Rahul Gandhi would also pitch in being an MP from the State, Congress hopes to recover and make up for the losses.
BJP plans to gain ground in Kerala
The BJP in Kerala has been playing the right cards aiming to gain ground in Kerala. Though there is only one legislator for the BJP in the State assembly, the intention is to grab more seats this time, in a tactful manner.
Though the BJP did not reach anywhere near their ‘saffron surge’ claims, the party hopes on the fall of the UDF in the State. They are working towards making progress in the State in a scenario where the UDF is shattered and has lost governance. The BJP leadership thinks that the party is capable of overthrowing the UDF in at least 40 constituencies in Kerala.
The BJP’s State leadership also thinks that Congress’s loss in Kerala, where Rahul Gandhi is the MP, will be favourable for the BJP and could slam the Congress at the national level. The BJP attempts to field more popular personalities, film stars and gain at least 15 seats that way.
The BJP National leadership has already warned the State BJP leaders that it is high time BJP made deep inroads in Kerala. The State is likely to witness a triangular battle with the BJP likely to field candidates in more than 90 seats.
Meanwhile, the leadership is fearful whether the chinks in the party that got exposed might be a setback. The party’s popular woman leader Shobha Surendran had raised allegations against V Muralidharan, Central Foreign Affairs Minister, in the public and stated that he behaves like a monarch and thwarted her chances in the party. Though she was told to be active with the election works for the local body polls, she had refused. The support announced for Shobha by senior party leaders K P Sreeshan and P.M. Velayudhan adds to the BJP’s headache.
LDF’s hopes and apprehensions
Even though the ruling LDF had emerged victorious despite all the political tactics and loud allegations by its opponents before the local body polls, the Left front has apprehensions on how the anti-government sentiments might affect the Left in the upcoming assembly elections.
The LDF senses a possible danger in the Congress bringing back Oommen Chandy to lead the front after the miserable defeat it witnessed in the local body polls. The Congress and the UDF seem to have awakened from a slump after the LDF gained remarkably in the December polls.
Oommen Chandy’s ‘close contact’ with the Christian churches, and the Nair Service Society (NSS), a major community organisation in Kerala, publicly extending its support to Chandy taking up a key leadership role in the UDF, are indications for the LDF.
The local body polls were not affected much by all the hue and cry related to the gold smuggling through diplomatic baggage channel, including the CM’s principal secretary being arrested, other staff’s alleged involvement, allegations against Speaker Sreeramakrishnan and his personal staff and such.
However, the LDF is apprehensive about all these factors while heading for the Assembly polls. The LDF’s appointments in Universities and Government-run public sector undertakings, backdoor appointments making the PSC lists a farce and favouritism towards party loyalists and nepotism had led to protests among the youth.
Nevertheless, the LDF sets its hopes on the Government’s timely intervention and relentless efforts to ensure the welfare of the common people when the pandemic scare engulfed Kerala in last February and the effective response mechanism during the COVID lockdown.
Free rations, food supply kits, community kitchens and the Rs 1,400 monthly welfare pension being door delivered without fail even during the COVID lockdown and all such welfare measures are definitely big achievements for the LDF Government. The local body polls reflected the grading for these activities by the LDF Governance.
At a time when even the developed countries were stumbling before the pandemic, and other parts of India were in chaos, Kerala’s effective intervention and responses to the COVID had drawn applause from the international agencies and foreign countries.
The Left Front is hopeful that these measures through which the Government could reach out directly to the common men and support them will pave the way for a second term too.
When the UDF projects controversies and allegations against the ruling Government to fight politically, the LDF presents the politics of development and welfare. The Left connects with the common men right from the grass-roots and holds them close with the Government in their times of difficulties and misery.
The LDF alleged that the BJP ruling the Centre is trying all means to overthrow the Left in Kerala by using the Central investigation agencies as its tool to unleash a series of false allegations to hook the LDF leaders somehow.
The LDF also points to the double standards of the Congress party as it vehemently opposes the Centre’s tactics of overthrowing Congress rule in other States by making the Central investigation agencies a tool and supports the same tactic by the BJP when it is against the Left in Kerala.
Lack of strong leadership in Congress
The major challenge for the UDF is the absence of a strong leader like Pinarayi Vijayan in their party fold. The allies in the UDF itself opine that their Opposition leader lacks credibility and people’s support even as he raises major allegations against the ruling Government and puts the LDF on the defensive.
The set back faced by the UDF in the local body polls in spite of such a favourable political environment is partly attributed to this by a faction in the Congress and by other UDF allies. A weak president heading the KPCC and the office bearers who can hardly claim any public support appointed sheerly based on the factions within, and 15 Congress MPs from Kerala told to stay away from the State politics, are said to further weaken the Congress aspirations in the run-up to the assembly polls.
When Oommen Chandy who had stayed away from the front line for 5 years has been called back and told to lead, the Congress aims at getting elected to power in Kerala. Political opponents are also curious to know how Opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala would deal with the mocking statements on him being sidelined after 5 years of relentless fights against the ruling LDF and Chandy being brought to the forefront to lead the party in the run-up to the Assembly polls.
All leaders have realised that the foundation of Congress would be undermined if the party cannot come back to power in Kerala for another 5 years. The Congress observers led by Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot are sure to consider all these factors and strategise how the party would contest the upcoming polls. The run-up for the Assembly elections is thus a do or die situation for the Congress in Kerala, quite literally.
Meanwhile, the Congress has been raising allegations that the CPM is trying to project BJP as a significant opponent for the LDF in Kerala in an attempt to split the anti-Government votes. The CPM does seemingly play this tactic of splitting votes between the BJP and the UDF thereby consolidating its votes. The BJP leadership also wishes that the Left returns to power for a second term, foreseeing that the scenario would then be entirely in favour of BJP in the 2026 elections. The Congress fears that the BJP would vote for the LDF with this calculation in some constituencies.
The Congress would strategise accordingly as these moves from the BJP and the Left are expected. In the run-up to the Assembly elections 2021, it is almost certain that Kerala would witness an intense triangular fight between the three parties presenting their political strategies.
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