Analysis: India's role in Intra-Afghan talks central to Afghan’s economic future

The United States has been pitching in India's inclusion in the Afghan peace process to be a part of the mechanism, as it believes that as South Asia’s biggest player, there is no other country than India better suited to do so. Now it remains to be seen, how crucial would be India’s role in the peace process given its continuous support to the war-torn country.

New Delhi: India will be among the six countries that would join the table to decide the roadmap for the Afghan peace process and given its growing stakes in Afghanistan, New Delhi will take a strong interest in putting an end to the ongoing war in Afghanistan, by implementing the Afghan peace process most acceptably, with the help of one of the key players - the United States (US).

It is the US that has been pitching in India’s inclusion in the peace process to be a part of the mechanism, as it believes that as South Asia’s biggest player, there is no other country than India better suited to do so.

Now it remains to be seen, how crucial would be India’s role in the Afghan Peace process given its continuous support to the war-torn country.

ETV Bharat spoke to a few foreign policy experts to have an in-depth idea

India’s role in the Afghan peace process

India’s former ambassador to Kazakhstan Ashok Sajjanhar said, “The interest of India, the Afghan government, Russia and China is to have a peaceful and stable Afghanistan so that it is not used as a launchpad for terrorist attacks against different countries. India has lots of interest in Afghanistan including its historical and civilisational links with the country, a huge investment of over 3 billion dollars, signing of a pact for the building of 300 million Shahtoot Dam on Kabul River.”

“The United States wanted India to be a part of the negotiation for its interest that Afghanistan should not emerge as a place where terrorist attacks can be launched across the world. In terms of economic activity, infrastructure and connectivity, India is very much active in Chahbahar port. And I think these factors are definitely of high interest for India,” he explains.

Most recently, India has proposed the inclusion of a strategically located Chabahar port in the International North-South Transport Corridor that proposes to connect the country with Russia via Iran.

Earlier, the Ministry of External Affairs S Jaishankar strongly reiterated that the Chabahar port has not only emerged as a commercial transit hub for the Indo-Pacific region but also facilitated the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, during the pandemic.

It, however, deserves a special mention that since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, India has been a pillar of support to Afghanistan in many ways especially in its economic growth. Perhaps, India has emerged as Afghanistan’s biggest regional donor.

Undoubtedly, India shares longstanding historical, cultural and civilisational links with Afghanistan and so far so, India’s policy towards Afghanistan highly reflects its desire for stability in the war-torn country. Therefore, instability in Afghanistan will have repercussion on India.

Most interestingly, Afghan Foreign Minister Hanif Atmar is scheduled to visit India on March 21 to discuss strategic partnership as well as recent developments about the Afghan Peace Process, with his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar.

His visit comes days after a meeting in Russia that would include all stakeholders including China, the US, Iran, Pakistan, Afghan leaders expect for India.

On being asked why Russia is apprehensive of India’s inclusion in the peace process, Sajjanhar opines that Russia is not opposing to India’s participation but it wanted that India should also warm up to the Taliban and India was not willing to differentiate between a bad and good Taliban and is giving easy access to the Taliban to the government of Kabul.

Not to forget, in Moscow’s format, India subsequently was included in the discussion.

Furthermore, Professor Harsh V Pant of Observer Research Organisation, New Delhi said, “Despite several attempts by some countries to keep India out of the peace process, it is now very clear at least to the United States that without India, the Afghan peace process cannot be sustained. India’s role is central to Afghan’s economic future. India has been playing a pivotal role when it comes to building Afghanistan's capacities both on the economic as well as administrative front. Therefore, going forward, India’s role in the Afghan peace process is likely to be an important one”.

What is the Afghan peace process?

The Afghan peace process comprises the proposals and negotiations in a bid to end the ongoing war in Afghanistan.

Although sporadic efforts have taken place since the war began in 2001, negotiations and the peace movement intensified in 2018 amid talks between the Taliban, which is the main insurgent group fighting against the Afghan government and American troops; and the United States, of which thousands of soldiers maintain a presence within the country to support the Afghan government.

Besides the United States, regional powers such as India, China and Russia, as well as NATO play a part in facilitating the peace process.

On September 22, 2016, the first treaty was signed between the Afghan government and the Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin militant group.

The second peace treaty was signed between the US and the Taliban on February 29, 2020, which called for the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan within 14 months if the Taliban upheld the terms of the agreement.

Pertinently, after the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement, there was a heave in insurgent attacks against the Afghan security forces. It was in September 2020 that the first official peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government began in Doha, Qatar.

But after the first official peace talks in Doha last year, there was a surge in civilian casualties in Afghanistan.

What is the US role in the Afghan peace deal?

After President Joe Biden came to power, the US administration has been pushing for a revised peace plan to the Afghan government and the Taliban, to bring a halt to the decade long violence in the war-torn country and form an interim government.

Professor Pant said that the US has made it very clear that they are on the path to leaving Afghanistan by May 1-the deadline they have set for themselves.

“And in the process, the Biden administration is making it clear to the regional stakeholders that they wanted orderly transition, and therefore, they invited the regional stakeholders to the table including Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Iran, Taliban and Kabul leaders to be a part of the engagement. Perhaps, the United States is trying to make it diplomatically possible for these countries to sit together and divine the path forward. It is very unlikely that regional stakeholders will converge on one single vision given the differences, but America certainly hopes they do that,” he explains.

It may be mentioned here that the next Afghan peace talk is slated to happen in April this year.