New Delhi: Amid reports of India and China resuming diplomatic talk on Friday after nearly a gap of 11 weeks to resolve the ongoing border standoff between the two nations in the Ladakh sector, a foreign policy expert opines that though China has shown little flexibility but knowing China, India cannot take it for granted.
Speaking to ETV Bharat, Former Ambassador Jitendra Kumar Tripathi said, “I don’t think the border standoff will resolve very soon. It is too premature to expect anything concrete from the coming round of talks. Seeing China’s stubbornness, it seems that it will take around 3-4 rounds more. Though China has shown a little bit of flexibility but knowing China, India cannot take it for granted. We have to be very cautious about talking to China and should not expect too much from China so soon".
“I don’t think that there will be any disengagement anytime soon. There has been de-escalation because of the tension that was there, it is no more. Both the armies have stuck to their grounds in front of each other. There is no much tension which used to be during summertime. De-escalation is there but disengagement will take time. Both armies will have to go back gradually and India has demanded that the Chinese army goes back on April 2020 situation”, he points out.
Tripathi said that China is now in a tighter position. After having occupying four major heights in Southern part that overlooks the Chinese army stationed in Northern part and finger four etc, with that China is in a bit little disadvantageous position. That’s why China is not ready to withdraw until India does saying that they are sticking to their grounds.
“It seems that Chinese do not have that much of experience in high altitude warfare and secondly it is found out that PLA’s cadre posted their in Ladakh border is not in a position and highly trained China has shown some flexibility but whether it is translated on the ground is yet to be seen, not in near future but it will be resolved”, he reiterated.
According to MEA, Director-General of the Department of Boundary and Oceanic Affairs of the Foreign Ministry Hong Liang and Joint Secretary of the East Asia Division of the Ministry of External Affairs Naveen Srivastava of India co-chaired the 20th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Border Affairs via videolink on Friday. Representatives from both countries' departments related to diplomacy, national defence and migration attended the meeting.
The discussion was held on disengagement of troops, thousands of whom have dug in on either side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in sub-zero conditions.
“Eventually the relationship between the two nations is going to be better and result in a thaw because so far China had miscalculated India’s reaction and that’s why on June China made this misadventure, which backfired on it. But now China knew that India cannot be defeated militarily that easily”. Amb Tripathi added.
Recalling the recent visit of UK’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, Tripathi underlines that Raab mentioned about having defence cooperation with India, US and Japan. “Virtually the UK is thinking to cooperate with ‘Quad’ countries to contain China. So all these international pressure on China will certainly compel China to make moves with India”.
According to a statement by the Ministry of External Affairs, the two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on the situation along the Line of Actual Control in the China-India border areas".
Both the sides agreed to earnestly implement the five-point consensus reached between the foreign ministers of both countries at the Moscow meeting, focused on the disengagement of front-line troops and take concrete measures to deal with the issues on the ground to further de-escalate the border situation.
“At the moment it’s a stalemate and both sides have gone as far as they can go under the possible circumstances. Neither side is likely to see a game-changing moment and both sides have realized that”. Prof Harsh V Pant Director, Studies and Head of the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation told ETV Bharat.
The two sides spoke highly of the outcomes of the 8th round of Senior Commanders Meeting agreed to continue dialogue and consultation via diplomatic and military channels, hold the 9th round of Senior Commanders Meeting as soon as possible properly deal with the outstanding issues on the ground, and jointly maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas.
“Given that India had never said that the doors of talks are closed, I think holding dialogues seems to be the most logical thing to do. The dialogue is starting because on the battlefield, there is a stalemate both in terms of how the ground forces are positioned-India having taken over the strategic heights and China being where it is.
Winter has also set in, therefore, in the next two-three months both sides will simply dig in as they cannot do much. Both the sides cannot do any aggressive trolling because the weather is harsh. Perhaps, both the sides look at the next three months as an opportunity to resolve diplomatically because militarily, two sides will be a constraint”, Prof Pant explained.
Between September 30 and now, the two sides have held military-level dialogues, which too failed to take the disengagement process forward.
India on Thursday had called for further discussion with China to reach a “mutually acceptable solution” on complete disengagement at all friction points on the LAC.
“We expect that further discussions will help both sides to achieve an agreement on a mutually acceptable solution for ensuring complete disengagement in all friction points along the LAC in the Western sector and full restoration of peace and tranquillity as early as possible,” MEA spokesperson Anurag Srivastava told a weekly news briefing.
At the end of the last virtual WMCC meet on September 30, both the Indian statement and a readout in Mandarin from China’s foreign ministry said the two sides “positively evaluated” the outcome of the sixth military commanders’ meeting on September 21.
The two sides last held a military-to-military talk on November 6, an indication that neither side is willing to shift from their respective positions. India and China are engaged in a bitter stand-off on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh since May.
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