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India at defining crossroad as Russia talks blunt

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Published : Dec 12, 2020, 8:51 PM IST

Russia on Tuesday took potshots at the Indo-Pacific policy and the fledgling Quad. At the root of it, it is asking India to decide where it stands—with Russia or with the US, writes senior journalist Sanjib Kr Baruah.

Representative Image
Representative Image

New Delhi: Diplomatically, India is in a major cusp. It has been called out by its traditionally close ally Russia to decide its stand as far as global geo-strategy and positioning goes. And Russia couldn’t have been more blunt in its asking India to choose who it wants to align with.

On Friday, India did come out with a tepid official response that by no means indicates clarity of stand. MEA spokesperson Anurag Srivastava had said: “India has always pursued an independent foreign policy based on its national interest. India’s relationship with each country is independent of its relations with third countries. We hope that this is well understood and appreciated by all our partners.”

But will Russia understand and appreciate?

The Indian reaction was in response to what Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday. “India is currently an object of the Western countries’ persistent, aggressive and devious policy as they are trying to engage it in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies, the so-called ‘Quad’, while at the same time the West is attempting to undermine our close partnership and privileged relations with India,” Lavrov said.

Taking potshots at the US-led Indo-Pacific front and the fledgling ‘Quad’, India is being pushed into a corner.

Via Russia

Amid the eight-month-long India-China standoff at various border points along eastern Ladakh, Russia had been quietly working to bring India and China together. Not overtly but very subtly.

The three countries India, China and Russia are already members of several growing multilateral platforms including the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), Shanghai Organisation Cooperation (SCO) and G20.

It accords Russia a space to mediate between the Asian giants. The mediating role is already believed to have figured in a top-secret Russian plan that was approved by President Vladimir Putin on November 13 that lays down ways on how Russia will face external and internal challenges in the 2021-2015 period.

It includes a peace brokering role in Chinese-Indian and Indian-Pakistani conflicts so as to boost Russia’s international image and prestige.

Military platforms

Besides geostrategic reasons for Russia to get more clarity on the Indian stand, Russia wants to ensure the weapons and military platforms it supplies India won’t be integrated with American weapons and military systems as it would mean Russian military tech know-how falling into US hands.

According to a paper by Sameer Lalwani of the Stimson Center in July, 86 per cent of all equipment, weapons and platforms currently in military service in India are of Russian origin.

The numbers are an overwhelming 90 per cent for the Army, about 66 per cent for IAF and more than 41 per cent for the Navy. Moreover, in the last six years, more than 55 per cent of all Indian military imports have been from Russia.

But in recent times, the US component in military imports has been growing, from M-777 howitzers to Chinook transport and Apache attack helicopters. Hence Russia is keen that India put some space and distance with the US. Shaking the foundations of the ‘Quad’ can be the first step in that direction.

Russia is also keen to weaken the upcoming Joe Biden presidency in a bid to ensure that the Trump regime of ‘America First’ doesn’t gain a foothold.

Although there are minor problems between Russia and China, they are increasingly seeing each other as strategic allies, although the Russian apprehension that they may be technologically bypassed by the Chinese will have a much stronger play in future.

US position

The US position on the issue is best encapsulated by what leading US Democratic senator Mark Warne had to say: “India will need to get off the fence and realise that the authoritarian capitalism model that China is putting out, you can’t be on the fence on that, you have got to decide whether you are going to align with democracies.”

“Clearly India is the world’s largest democracy and I believe it will align with that group,” added Warner, who is also vice-chairman of the Senate select committee on intelligence.

But India will have to tread with caution also because the US is no longer the world leader it was. Even on China, the US has not been able to acquire total support from the European Union (EU).

With an ongoing naval exercise between Russia and Pakistan, it is a no-brainer of the kind of impact a Russia-China-Pakistan nexus will have on the Line of Control (LoC) and the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in particular and on the South Asian region in particular.

What impedes Indian positioning is also ambiguity on what the Biden regime will bring and whether it will continue with the same commitments that the Trump presidency made to India.

In sum, India is in an unenviable position where it will have to make a choice—to commit to one relationship at the cost of the other.

Also Read: India a pivot in Russia's top secret defence plan 2021-25

New Delhi: Diplomatically, India is in a major cusp. It has been called out by its traditionally close ally Russia to decide its stand as far as global geo-strategy and positioning goes. And Russia couldn’t have been more blunt in its asking India to choose who it wants to align with.

On Friday, India did come out with a tepid official response that by no means indicates clarity of stand. MEA spokesperson Anurag Srivastava had said: “India has always pursued an independent foreign policy based on its national interest. India’s relationship with each country is independent of its relations with third countries. We hope that this is well understood and appreciated by all our partners.”

But will Russia understand and appreciate?

The Indian reaction was in response to what Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday. “India is currently an object of the Western countries’ persistent, aggressive and devious policy as they are trying to engage it in anti-China games by promoting Indo-Pacific strategies, the so-called ‘Quad’, while at the same time the West is attempting to undermine our close partnership and privileged relations with India,” Lavrov said.

Taking potshots at the US-led Indo-Pacific front and the fledgling ‘Quad’, India is being pushed into a corner.

Via Russia

Amid the eight-month-long India-China standoff at various border points along eastern Ladakh, Russia had been quietly working to bring India and China together. Not overtly but very subtly.

The three countries India, China and Russia are already members of several growing multilateral platforms including the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), Shanghai Organisation Cooperation (SCO) and G20.

It accords Russia a space to mediate between the Asian giants. The mediating role is already believed to have figured in a top-secret Russian plan that was approved by President Vladimir Putin on November 13 that lays down ways on how Russia will face external and internal challenges in the 2021-2015 period.

It includes a peace brokering role in Chinese-Indian and Indian-Pakistani conflicts so as to boost Russia’s international image and prestige.

Military platforms

Besides geostrategic reasons for Russia to get more clarity on the Indian stand, Russia wants to ensure the weapons and military platforms it supplies India won’t be integrated with American weapons and military systems as it would mean Russian military tech know-how falling into US hands.

According to a paper by Sameer Lalwani of the Stimson Center in July, 86 per cent of all equipment, weapons and platforms currently in military service in India are of Russian origin.

The numbers are an overwhelming 90 per cent for the Army, about 66 per cent for IAF and more than 41 per cent for the Navy. Moreover, in the last six years, more than 55 per cent of all Indian military imports have been from Russia.

But in recent times, the US component in military imports has been growing, from M-777 howitzers to Chinook transport and Apache attack helicopters. Hence Russia is keen that India put some space and distance with the US. Shaking the foundations of the ‘Quad’ can be the first step in that direction.

Russia is also keen to weaken the upcoming Joe Biden presidency in a bid to ensure that the Trump regime of ‘America First’ doesn’t gain a foothold.

Although there are minor problems between Russia and China, they are increasingly seeing each other as strategic allies, although the Russian apprehension that they may be technologically bypassed by the Chinese will have a much stronger play in future.

US position

The US position on the issue is best encapsulated by what leading US Democratic senator Mark Warne had to say: “India will need to get off the fence and realise that the authoritarian capitalism model that China is putting out, you can’t be on the fence on that, you have got to decide whether you are going to align with democracies.”

“Clearly India is the world’s largest democracy and I believe it will align with that group,” added Warner, who is also vice-chairman of the Senate select committee on intelligence.

But India will have to tread with caution also because the US is no longer the world leader it was. Even on China, the US has not been able to acquire total support from the European Union (EU).

With an ongoing naval exercise between Russia and Pakistan, it is a no-brainer of the kind of impact a Russia-China-Pakistan nexus will have on the Line of Control (LoC) and the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in particular and on the South Asian region in particular.

What impedes Indian positioning is also ambiguity on what the Biden regime will bring and whether it will continue with the same commitments that the Trump presidency made to India.

In sum, India is in an unenviable position where it will have to make a choice—to commit to one relationship at the cost of the other.

Also Read: India a pivot in Russia's top secret defence plan 2021-25

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