New Delhi: Russia's onslaught on Ukraine war entered its sixth day on Tuesday as fighting intensified across the country with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urging the West to consider a no-fly zone for Russian aircraft after bombardment on Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine.
The West bloc led by the United States continues to impose stringent economic sanctions on Russia and simultaneously sends huge military supplies to Ukraine. Talking to ETV Bharat, SD Muni, former Ambassador & Special Envoy of India, Professor Emeritus JNU, said "Putin's prestige is at stake". "He is even individually talking with the French President, reiterating his promise of demilitarisation and Denazification of Ukraine. Because if the pressure increases and Putin stops now, his political credibility will go down in Russia, which he probably cannot afford. I think he will linger on but he is in a very difficult situation," Amb Muni said.
Putin, he said, wanted to raise his political clout within Russia which does not seem possible under the present circumstances. "And if Russia gets bogged down in Europe, in Ukraine which the European Union and the Ukrainians would want, then he is in a real mess and something like what happened in Afghanistan", he said.
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Delegations from Russia and Ukraine held initial talks in southeastern Belarus on Monday, which ended after several hours and their outcome could not immediately be determined. To this Amb Muni replied, "It was not supposed to produce any outcome. Both sides were insisting on their own objectives and nobody was hopeful that this meeting would lead to a ceasefire".
On Monday, President Zelenskyy appeared in a video with two of his associates whereby he signed an application for EU membership. To this, Muni took a realistic approach, saying the body would require following a detailed process for the admission of the new member. "But, EU still hasn't given a definite answer. They have a mechanism, they have to collect all leaders, all will then give their opinions. At this stage admitting Ukraine will bring an obligation to support Ukraine so there are issues involved that are creating more troubles", Muni noted.
At the top of these tensions is Putin's aggressive behavior towards Ukraine for wanting to have a membership of NATO which the Kremlin would not want to let happen.
There are broadly four objectives behind Putin's actions- firstly, to make sure Ukraine does not join NATO and Ukraine remains a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. The second is the regime change in Kyiv. Thirdly, Putin's own political popularity within Russia, and the last broader objective could be preventing Russia's isolation in Europe. The sanctions imposed on Russia are leaving Russia entirely dependent on China, which even Putin does not like but they have no other options.
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"That is why Putin now wants greater engagement with Europe. If this happens, it will only promote global balance and stability and that's what India would also want but that is not happening at the moment," the former ambassador opined.
"Our stand on this crisis has so far maintained a sort of a balance and at the same time, we are saying to Ukraine that we are with you. We are also sending medical supplies to Ukraine. Beyond that, we cannot do much because we don't have much clout either with Russia or with Europe on such critical issues", the diplomat said.
"We have deep and rich bilateral relations with Russia, especially in defense matters. Condemning Russia will not only affect our bilateral relations but it will also push the Kremlin more towards China, which India would certainly not want", he added. "We are in touch with both sides and we are maintaining a balanced policy. For all the times, we are singing the songs of rules-based international order and Putin has just violated these orders. Now, we cannot condemn Putin's action in the global arena nor can we support him. Right now, we are walking on a very tightrope", Muni further said.
When asked about the UNSC meetings and Russia vetoing a draft of a security council resolution on Ukraine, Muni said the UN has always been unable to do anything when it came to matters concerning the permanent members.
"Tell me, has the UN in the past resolved any conflict? The United Nations has always been incapable because of the veto rights, they can only have a unanimous decision when it comes to the third world countries. When there is an issue of conflict amongst the P5, it fails to resolve anything", he said.
"I think it can turn into a dirty war and if it doesn't turn into a dirty war, then it is only possible if Putin stops fighting and starts withdrawing which will be a political demise of Putin's status. I have a feeling that if Putin continues to seek his objective, then he will get bogged down in Europe" the ex-ambassador stated.
