Bhopal: Madhya Pradesh has by-elections on 28 seats in the 230-member assembly. Statements such as backstabbers, items, Maharaj's honour, traitor, honesty, and Kamal Nath's Jai Jai have dominated the election campaign over the last few days.
Kamal Nath is hoping for a comeback after his government went out of power 7 months ago, and the credibility of Jyotiraditya Scindia, who rebelled against the Congress and joined the BJP in the by-election too is at stake.
Out of the 28 seats, 16 seats are under the influence of Scindia, which will prove to be a litmus test for him. The by-election will also decide whether Shivraj's government will stay in power or not.
The election is of Kamal Nath Vs Jyotiraditya Scindia, in which Digvijay Singh from Congress and Shivraj from BJP have plunged into battle with vigour. The Congress is engaged in calling Jyotiraditya Scindia a traitor in every meeting and statement. At the same time, Scindia is making the issue of chaos spread in Kamal Nath's 15-month government.
In Madhya Pradesh, the by-election on these seats is the result of former Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia breaking his 18-year-old relationship with the Congress and joining the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) along with 25 MLAs from Nath's camp 7 months ago.
Tug of war to form a government
BJP's biggest test in MP is to retain the government of Shivraj Singh Chauhan. To make this possible, it is necessary that the BJP wins at least 16 seats in the by-election. Apparently, CM Shivraj is doing everything possible to retain the power and Kamal Nath's effort is to reduce BJP to a minimum number of seats and also to keep his house in order as, during the by-election, another Congress MLA resigned and joined BJP. 29 seats are now vacant.
Senior leaders of BJP have claimed that 4 MLA of Congress are still ready to join BJP.
Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh are expert players in election management and are busy devising new strategies. Nath has taken help from various survey agencies so that they can understand the mood of the public.
Of the 28 seats in the by-election, 16 seats belong to the Gwalior-Chambal region. This is the area under the influence of Jyotiraditya Scindia. 8 seats are from Malwa-Nimar zone, which has been a BJP's stronghold since the time of Jana Sangh, two seats are from Vindhya region and one seat each is from Mahakaushal and Bhopal region.
The entire contest is between the BJP and the Congress. BSP also has a significant impact on some seats. This has often spoilt the game.
The BSP has fielded candidates for all 28 seats, while the SAPAKS (General, Backward Classes Minorities Welfare Society) party has also fielded candidates for 16 seats.
A total of 355 candidates are trying their luck on 28 seats in the by-election.
Millionaire candidate in the by-election
According to the ADR report, out of 355 candidates in the fray for 28 seats, 80 are millionaires and 63 candidates have criminal cases registered against them. In the report, 19 former MLAs have assets worth crores. Most of the affidavits in the Election Commission are millionaires. BJP has the highest number of millionaire candidates. While the names of Congress candidates are registered with more criminal cases. Congress candidate Premchand Guddu has assets of Rs 86.96 crores. Dr. Sushil Prasad from BJP's Biavara has assets worth Rs 15 crore and BJP's Badnavar candidate Rajyavardhan Singh Dattigaon has assets worth Rs 13.45 crore.
Madhya Pradesh (VIP seats)
There are many leaders in MP who have often engulfed in controversies. Such candidate is Imrati Devi from Dabra seat who has left Congress and joined BJP. Kamal Nath's ‘item’ remark has been in constant headlines since the statement was made. Apart from this, Bisahulal Singh from Anuppur seat has also been in controversies due to his statements and viral videos. 14 ministers of the government are contesting the by-election. However, 2 of them had to resign due to the completion of the time period.
Know seat-wise, which VIP seats are being fiercely contested
Legislative seat
Seat - BJP - Congress
Dabra - Imarti Devi - Suresh Raje
Surkhi - Govind Singh Rajput - Parul Sahu
Gwalior - Pradyuman Singh Tomar - Sunil Sharma
Anuppur - Bisahu Lal Singh - Vishwanath Singh Kunjam
Badnawar - Rajwardhan Singh - Kamal Patel
Bamori - Mahendra Singh Sisodia - Kanhaiya Lal Aggarwal
Sanwar - Tulsiram Silvat - Premchand Guddu
Morena - Aindal Singh Kansana - Ajab Singh Kushwaha
Mehgaon - Ops Bhadoria - Hemant Katare
Bhander - Raksha Saronia - Phool Singh Baraiya
Suvasara - Hardeep Singh Dung - Rakesh Patidar
These seats are in the by-elections
For the first time in the history of Madhya Pradesh, by-elections are going to be held on 28 assembly seats simultaneously. There are 28 by-elections in MP. In 28, 25 seats are vacant after the resignation of Congress MLAs. At the same time, 3 seats are vacant due to the demise of MLAs.
1.) Sumavali 2.) Morena 3.) Dimani 4.) Ambah 5.) Mehgaon 6.) Gohad 7.) Gwalior 8.) Gwalior East 9.) Dabra 10.) Bhander 11.) Karera 12.) Pohri 13 .) Bamori 14.) Ashoknagar 15.) Mungavali 16.) Surkhi 17.) Sanchi 18.) Anuppur 19.) Sanver 20.) Hatpipalya 21.) Suwasara 22.) Badnavar 23.) Agar-Malwa 24.) Jaura 25 .) Nepanagar 26.) Malhara 27.) Mandhata and 29.) Biaora.
Graphics
Electoral Mathematics in M.P
A look at the current state of MP assembly
Kamal Nath has talked about his 15-month tenure and his Programme Yuva Samvad to grab the votes of the youth. To simplify rules of industries and provide 70% local employment, Kamal Nath has claimed to make MP Horticulture Capital and Food Processing Hub.
There are a total of 5 crores 9 lakh voters in Madhya Pradesh. Of these, 12.60 per cent of voters will cast their vote in this election. Around 64 lakh voters are going to choose their representative. Although 12 per cent appears to be a small figure it is more than the number of voters in ten states of the country.
* New and young voters whose age is 21 to 29 years in Madhya Pradesh will be decisive.
* Such voters are 27.38%, while 25.58% of voters aged 30 to 39.
* MP has 5.34 crore voters out of which over 2.75 crore voters are youth.
Total votes
18 to 19 years - 15,78,167
20 to 29 years - 1,37,83,383
30 to 39 years - 1,28,74,974
40 to 49 years - 99,30,546
50 to 59 years - 63,58,853
60 to 69 years - 35,45,733
70 to 79 years - 16,85,339
Over 80 - 5,77,265
Number of voters below 40 years of age 56 per cent
Elders who have scored a century in the state will vote
This time a postal ballot has been arranged for elderly voters.
Know which seats will have voters who have crossed the age of 100.
Mehgaon - 20 voters
Gohad - 15
3,139 voters aged 80-89 in Mehgaon
350 voters ages 90-99
2,563 voters aged 80-89 in Gohad
355 voters aged 90-99
Youth: The deciding factor
Dabra - 54% young voters
Bhander - 50% young voters
Jaura - 61% young voters
Sumawali - 61% young voters
Morena - 56% young voters
Dimani - 60% young voters
Ambah - 60% young voters
Gwalior - 53% of youth voters
Gwalior East - 50% young voters
Gohad - 54% young voters
Mehgaon - 50% young voters
Mathematics to form government in Madhya Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh Assembly has 230 seats out of which 29 seats are vacant and by-elections for 28 are held. 116 legislators will be needed for a majority in the 201 seat assembly. The BJP needs to win 9 seats for a majority, while the Congress will have to win all 28 seats to get a majority, the real picture will be clear only after the election results are announced. Results will come with Bihar on 10 November.
Also Read: Voters keep parties on edge in Madhya Pradesh by-polls
