New Delhi: Against the backdrop of a huge spike in Covid-19 cases in Kerala, India’s renowned health experts told ETV Bharat on Thursday that such an increase could be the beginning of a third wave.
Along with Kerala, Maharashtra is also considerably witnessing a rise in cases. What has further worrying the experts is the fact that the cases are increasing due to the Delta variants, which has the character of rapid increase in infection.
“With such an increase there is every possibility of a third wave. Kerala and Maharashtra can trigger the third wave. We have to break the chain of transmission with strict lockdown,” said renowned public health expert Dr Suneela Garg to ETV Bharat.
Kerala at present accounts for 50 per cent of India’s total Covid cases.
Quoting reports, Dr Garg said that there is no strict adherence to the home isolation protocol in Kerala. “The matter of concern is that most of the cases are related to the Delta variant,” said Dr Garg who is also the president of the Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine (IAPSM).
From March 10 to August 10 there is a 233 per cent increase of Covid cases in Kerala. “Our whole serosurvey projected that 44 per cent of people in Kerala are found positive for antibodies leaving a big chunk of the uninfected population,” added Dr Garg.
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She has also expressed concern over the poor vaccination rate of the state.
“If we look from the vaccination perspective a total of 2.24 crore people in Kerala got the vaccination. Out of which only 64 lakh people got the 2nd dose and 1.59 crore people got the first dose,” she said.
Dr Garg said that, in Kerala, around 95 per cent of people are basically suffering from milder infection whereas home isolation has been compromised.
“There is every possibility of transmission of the infection. The Covid appropriate behaviour has also been compromised…there is relaxation and laxity in maintaining Covid appropriate behaviour ahead of Onam festival,” said Dr Garg.
As per statistics, the total cases recorded in Kerala on August 11 was 23,500 out of India’s total number of 41,576 cases. Similarly, on August 10, Kerala recorded 21,119 cases out of a total of 38,335 cases across India. On August 9, Kerala reported 13,049 cases from a total of 27421 cases recorded across India.
In Maharashtra 4,505 cases were recorded on August 9, followed by 5,609 cases on August 10 and 5,560 cases on August 11.
Talking to ETV Bharat correspondent, senior health expert and president of the Asian Society for Emergency Medicine Dr Tamorish Kole said that Kerala accounted for more than half of the Covid-19 cases recorded in the country in the last seven days and it is a matter of concern.
According to NCDC, the current R0 value of Kerala is 1.12 and it is expected that for the period of August 1 to 20, the infection count may rise up to 4.62 lakhs.
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“The cause could be attributed to poor compliance of Covid appropriate behaviour and possibility of super spreader events. There is a high proportion of elderly people in Kerala's population due to high life expectancy, which is contributing to the susceptible pool of Covid infections,” said Dr Kole.
Dr Kole suggested that trace, test and isolate should be the strategy. “Simultaneously, rapid vaccination can also help in Kerala. The bed occupancy rate in hospitals also needs to be strictly monitored so that demand can be met in case of a surge,” he added.
Referring to the third wave, Dr Kole said that the third wave is not going to hit all states simultaneously. “What we are witnessing in Kerala may be the beginning of it. The other states must plan to respond to a similar situation in the next two months,” said Dr Kole.
