New Delhi: Quoting the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, Dr V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday said that the inflation in India is likely to be "well behaved" in financial year 2024. "By and large, the inflation to be "well behaved" in FY 2024 barring headwinds," Nageswaran said. He further added that India's economy is poised to do better in remainder of this decade, as he tabled the economic survey 2022-23 in Parliament ahead of the budget session on Tuesday.
Laying down the statistics of the GDP forecast as per the IMF, CEA Nageswaran stated that India's GDP forecast for current FY has been maintained at 6.8%, next FY at 6.1% and for 2024-25 at 6.8%. Speaking at the joint session of the parliament ahead of the budget on Tuesday, the CEA reassured that the Indian economy is likely to grow faster once the global shocks caused due to the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war fades a bit.
Speaking on employment situation in the country, he noted that the Urban unemployment ratio has come down to 7%, while the worker population ratio has picked up to become 45%. "As private investment begins to pick in and as construction sector comes back to life, employment scenario will become as it did in the 1st decade," the CEA noted.
"As long as oil prices remain below USD 100/barrel, the projected growth rate would remain undisturbed," he noted, registering an assertive approach for the GDP growth to be expected in the coming financial year. Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic still lingering around, the CEA highlighted the 'wide-ranging efforts taken by government for ensuring quality health in the country'. "India's COVID-19 vaccination programme has been instrumental in facilitating our economic recovery process as well," Nageswaran added.
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"Government has been spending more for better quality of life, leading to improved outcomes such as reduced school dropout rate, better pupil-to-teacher ratio. Interventions made by the government in strengthening social infrastructure have also been substantial, while the outlays have become outcomes," CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said.
He further noted that the quality of public expenditure has gone up, and the government has become more transparent with budget deficit numbers. "There is increased transparency in public procurement," he claimed. The entire philosophy of economic management revolves around making it easier for people and businesses to pursue their economic activities, ultimately leading to enhanced potential of economy to grow at a higher rate, he said.
Applauding the economic steps taken by the centre this year, the CEA said that both internal and external negative effects on the economy could be prevented because of the economic reforms and policies of the Government of India. "These economic reforms will not only lead to high growth, but also inclusive growth," he said. He further noted that 9.3% of overall gross capital formation is being contributed by private sector, which is being facilitated by various government initiatives.
Highlighting that the agriculture sector has developed tremendous export potential in the past few years, the CEA said that the share of private sector investment in agriculture has reached a level which is highest in last 12 yrs. "Share of private sector investment in agriculture has reached a high level, facilitated by various government initiatives. The sector is no longer about being a primary sector. It now has tremendous export potential as well."
