Kolkata: Suvendu Adhikari's perpetual estrangement of Trinamool Congress has raised the eyebrows in the political circles of West Bengal.
Several questions are being raised on Adhikari's exit. Will the once TMC strongman fade out in the political arena of West Bengal once he is out of Mamata Banerjee's favour? Or, will he turn out to be the principal architect of TMC's defeat in the upcoming assembly elections?
Political arithmetic, however, throws its weight behind the second possibility.
Going by the statistics of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Trinamool Congress has already lost its grip in the two districts of West Midnapore and Jhargram. Trinamool’s tally in the East Midnapore district was intact in 2019 mainly owing to the influence of the Adhikari family. Suvendu's father and Kanthi Lok Sabha member, Sisir Adhikari is currently the eldest representative of the Trinamool Congress in the Lok Sabha. Suvendu's brother, Dibyendu Adhikari is the elected member of the Tamluk Lok Sabha in East Midnapore. His other brother, Soumendu Adhikari is the chairman of Kanthi Municipal Corporation.
Now, all eyes are glued on the Adhikari family as to which political direction they will adopt.
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If Suvendhu's kin follow his path, then the future of Trinamool will be bleak in the majority of the 16 assembly constituencies, since the influence of the Adhikari family over a sizeable section of the voters in the district is still intact.
More importantly, the development will shake the roots of Trinamool in Nandigram, where Trinamool’s land movement played the prime role behind the end of 34-year long Left Front rule in West Bengal in 2011. This will surely send a wrong signal for Trinamool in the entire South Bengal.
It has to be mentioned that as per the assembly-wise results statistics of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Trinamool has already lost its grip over Singur which paved the path for Mamata Banerjee journey to power.
Besides East Midnapore, Suvendu’s exit will also accelerate Trinamool’s loosening grip in five other districts namely Birbhum, Purulia, Bankura, Malda and Murshidabad, since Suvendu’s influence over the district leadership and common party workers of Trinamool in these five districts is still immense.
For the last few months, these five districts have been flooded with posters like “We are dada’s followers”. According to political psephologists, Suvendu Adhikari has the capability of spoiling Trinamool’s party in 40 to 45 assembly constituencies.
Many Trinamool leaders are indirectly accepting the fact that Suvendu’s exit can prove to be quite expensive for the party’s prospects in the coming days. According to Trinamool Congress Lok Sabha member from Dum Dum, Saugata Roy, since Suvendu is yet to resign as an MLA, he is hopeful that ultimately he will not desert the party.
Even the chief minister Mamata Banerjee is also realizing the fact that Suvendu’s exit will not be a good signal for the party in the coming days. As instructed by her, Prasant Kishore or PK personally went to Adhikari's residence but was unable to meet him. Although Kishore had a long discussion with his father, Sisir Adhikari, there was no positive outcome.
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Suvendu through his confidants gave certain conditions that were simply impossible for the chief minister to accept.
On the other hand, the state BJP leadership is also realizing how important Suvendu’s entry to the saffron camp will be. Senior BJP leaders like Kailash Vijayvargiya and Dilip Ghosh are leaving no stone unturned to woo him. Now the entire political focus is the next course of action by Adhikari.
