New Delhi: Rarely have geopolitical equations and international order, witnessed such convulsions and uncertainty as they have in the recent period. Nothing is sacrosanct or predictable any longer, be it security commitments, trade arrangements, multilateral architecture or plurilateral understandings. This phenomenon has been gravely aggravated by the ongoing corona pandemic.
‘Credit’ for bringing this about goes to two actors: The 45th President of the US, who assumed office in mid-January 2017, Donald Trump and the ‘Emperor’ of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping, since 2012.
An iconoclast, Trump came to power with a promise to 'Make America Great Again' or 'America First'. He openly accused partner countries of taking advantage of American generosity. His barbs were particularly directed at G7 and NATO nations, which were free-loaders he alleged, for reaping the benefits of peace and security, established at considerable cost by the US, without sharing the financial burden equitably. Most of them he sneered, did not spend even 1% of their GDP on defence.
He was also determined to undo his predecessor’s legacy. Like a tornado he ripped apart anything that had the Obama imprint. He pulled out of the ambitious TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) trade deal, Paris Accord on climate change and JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) or the Iran nuclear, to name a few. Even though, Iran was implementing the agreement in letter and spirit, Trump reimposed tough sanctions on the country. He rubbed most of the world leaders and the closest of American allies including Germany, France, Canada and South Korea, on the wrong side.
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But Trump did get one thing right... The Chinese threat! In early December 2016, as President-elect he threw down the gauntlet, by accepting a congratulatory call from the Taiwanese President, disregarding American ‘one China policy’ of over 35 years. “The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you! Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call” tweeted Trump.
Rattled, but not wanting to rock the boat too much, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called it a “little trick pulled off by Taiwan,” adding that China did not want to see the political foundation with the US “disturbed and damaged.”
But Trump’s mind was made up. He was convinced that China, a command economy, had been taking advantage of the open American system for years. He volubly decried the $375 billion, annual trade deficit with China. He accused China of undermining American interests, engaging in industrial espionage, acquiring its hi-tech companies on a sly and flexing military muscles. He imposed tariffs on Chinese products, called on American enterprises to pull out and placed restrictions on Chinese SOEs (State owned Enterprises) like Huawei and ZTE which have direct links with PLA (People's Liberation Army).
President Xi Jinping's ambition added fuel to fire. He tightened internal controls, cracked down on political opponents in the garb of rooting out corruption and gagged discordant voices. All pretences of a peaceful rise were dropped. Intimidatory tactics towards Taiwan, Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang were stepped up. The pace of militarization of the South China Sea increased. Beijing displayed needless aggression with neighbours like Japan, Australia, ASEAN nations and India.
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In order to edge-out the US as the regional hegemon, China boasting of the second largest $13.5 trillion economy, went about modernizing its armed forces, developing a blue water navy and acquiring military bases in the Indo-Pacific region.
In parallel it rolled out BRI (the Belt and Road Initiative) to promote its exports and entangle developing countries in a web of debt. In negotiations with the US, China took a muscular position to project an image of strength. That is when it played right into the American hands. For once the accomplished bully more than met its match in President Trump, who decided to up the ante.
"Obviously China is a threat to the world in a sense because they are building a military faster than anybody and frankly they are using US money” stated the US President. He enthusiastically embraced the idea of the Indo-Pacific construct, which in simple terms meant, Asia Pacific minus China. The QUAD (Australia, India, Japan and the US) dialogue process was upgraded to ministerial level in September 2019. Now the US is trying to expand it as QUAD plus by associating South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand and possibly France.
In late May 2020, Trump announced his intention of restructuring G7 as G11 by adding Australia, Russia, South Korea and India, but pointedly excluding China. It was also a reflection of his strained ties with G7 leaders. His proposal to host a G7 summit in Washington, to discuss the Covid19 crisis, was turned down by Chancellor Merkel.
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"I don't feel that...(G7) properly represents what's going on in the world. It's a very outdated group of countries," observed Trump adding that he would host it in the ‘expanded’ format in September during the UNGA session or later after presidential polls. G7 is rich boys club. Its charter and approach would have to be appropriately recalibrated if fast emerging economies like India were to become a part of it, instead of remaining occasional invitees, as in the past. During their telephonic conversation, PM Modi assured President Trump of his support to ensure a successful summit. The Chinese Global Times reacted by saying – “No matter if G7 becomes the G11 or G12, this will largely be symbolic but ineffective.”
However, the expansion is anything but a done deal. There has to be a broad agreement if not a consensus among the G7 countries, which may prefer to retain the present structure and revive the spirit of camaraderie under a new American President. Then there is the question about the relevance of G20? In parallel England has floated the idea of D10 (Democratic 10) comprising of G7 plus India, Australia and South Korea.
Addressing a ministerial meeting of Alliance for Multilateralism, EAM Dr. Jaishankar aptly noted - “ No institution, howsoever important, can remain frozen at the moment of its foundation. This is why we continue to call for ‘reformed multilateralism’… in this complex and uncertain time.” And it is Chinese behaviour that has lent greater urgency to the task. Secretary Pompeo listed China's expansionism as "the challenge of our time". He also described the Communist Party of China (CPC) as a "rogue actor." He disclosed that additional US troops and naval assets, were being ‘postured appropriately’ in Asia to “counter the PLA.”
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China’s global standing has rarely been as poor as it is now. The Chinese president faces a catch-22 situation, resulting from his own posturing. Ratchet down the external aggression and invite a backlash at home or antagonise the world further, by continuing with the present posture. In any event, China is pushing India away and forcing her to make common cause with the western powers. In short, the world is in a flux. There is no knowing how things would pan out. It is prudent to weigh options carefully before making a call.
(Written by Vishnu Prakash, former ambassador Ottawa and Seoul. Former official spokesperson of Foreign Office, formerly Consul General to Shanghai. He has served in Moscow, New York, Vladivostok, Tokyo, Islamabad and Cairo.)
