New Delhi: “The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people’s fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That’s why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular.” - Donald J Trump (Trump: The Art of the Deal)
As Trump heads to Houston to join the Indian Prime Minister on stage on Sunday for “Howdy, Modi!” , the diaspora rally does promise to be a spectacular event with chances of some deal on bilateral trade too.
The billionaire businessman and television star President has displayed a penchant to weave his foreign policy as if the world is reality TV.
And he loves a good sparkling show like the one lined up at Harris County which holds the key to Texas and swung from red to blue with an election loss for Trump here in 2016.
The swing states of Michigan and Pennsylavnia that Trump managed to win as a Republican for the first time since George H.W. Bush in 1988 are also tipped to flip back to the Democrats. The midterms in 2018 switched control of the House of Representatives to the opposition Democrats increasing Trump’s electoral arithmetic woes.
As Trump now gears up for Battleground 2020, every vote counts including in in Texas where prospects look brighter for the Democrats to make a comeback for the first time since Jimmy Carter won it in 1976.
This at a time when he continues to struggle with his popularity ratings. He remains the only US top leader in modern history to have never touched the 50 percent job approval in Gallup’s weekly poll that tracks how Americans view their Presidents’ performance in White House.
However, his current approval rating of 44.3 percent according to Real Clear Politics average of more than half a dozen major polls is higher than that of Obama during his re-election phase in September of 2011, a positive shot for the Republican campaign.
Trump as President is yet to travel to India compared to his predecessor Barack Obama who visited Delhi twice, including as Chief Guest for Republic Day Parade in 2015.
But at the diaspora rally with at least 50000 dominantly Indo-Americans in attendance in Houston, Trump will hope to woo them piggybacking on the popularity of Modi who returned to power for the second time this year with a resounding victory.
This even as several US Congressmen have criticised and raised concerns about the Modi government’s clampdown in Kashmir and human rights situation post abrogation of Article 370. The affluent diaspora which might hail Modi government’s moves to deport illegal immigrants from India, has traditionally voted for Democrats and has been on tenterhooks with Trump administration’s statements on H1B visas and immigration norms review.
In recognition of the sway the Indian diaspora commands in American politics- visibly one of the most influential minority Asian community accounting to nearly one percent of the US population today, Trump has appointed more than two dozen Indian-Americans to senior positions in his administration since assuming office in 2017.
His predecessor Obama had appointed some 50 Indian-American faces to positions of responsibility in his presidential span of eight years.
“Their success in diverse fields, their contribution to the US in various walks of life, their strong bonds with India and their role as a living bridge between our two democracies is a source of pride for us,” said PM Modi in his departure statement underlining significance of the diaspora in bilateral politics.
“This would be a maiden appearance of US President in an Indian community event with me, and marks a new milestone in our outreach to them,” he added.
The two powerful leaders of the world’s largest and oldest democracies also have much in common. Modi and Trump have proved the traditional outsiders who rose within the political corridors. They challenged and decimated political dynast opponents.
Both right wing religious conservatives have used social media tools for power, promotion and propaganda. Both have had rough relations with media- Modi still staying away from press conferences, while Trump continues to bash the fourth estate accusing it of Fake News and Lies. And both with ‘Business in their DNA’ as referred to by PM Modi, want this relationship to benefit their nationalist slogans of ‘Make In India’ and ‘Make America Great Again’.
These commonalities and bonhomie have reflected in their hugs and recent fist pounding at Biarritz, even though Trump made news for his awkward handshakes with several other top global leaders.
For Trump delivering jobs, getting China to agree to a trade deal of his choice and bringing back American troops from Afghanistan are the big promises he needs to deliver on.
India is an important player for both reducing trade gaps and stabilising South Asia which is crucial for an eventual pullout even though the peace deal talks with Taliban have derailed currently.
Houston will set the stage for his formal bilateral talks with Modi in New York on September 24 along sidelines of the UNGA , where the sticky issues will be discussed.
Earlier in Osaka during the G20 summit, Trump announced, “I think we’re going to have some very big things to announce. Very big trade deal. We’re doing some very big things with India in terms of trade, in terms of manufacturing.” Will Modi and Trump announce a partial trade deal? Will India see a partial re-instatement of the GSP (Generalised System of Preferences) status? The jury is still out.
But the mood is clearly upbeat. And Trump who has mimicked Modi’s accent in the past, called both the Indian and the Pakistani Prime Ministers as ‘very good friends’ will surely enjoy the diplomatic spectacle at the rally that will be one of its kind.
-by Smita Sharma
Also read: Houston, Do we have a solution?
