Mumbai: With only a week to go for polling in Maharashtra, the campaigning is in full swing. Narendra Modi addressed his first rally on Sunday with four more to go in the next four days. Rahul Gandhi also addressed three meetings in a single day. Yesterday, being the last Sunday before the campaigning ends (on coming Saturday), all parties wanted to make most of it.
Two things were quite notable about this year's campaigning. One- all the parties had begun their campaign yatras about four months ago. Immediately, after the Lok Sabha elections were over in May all the parties had gone into election mode. Devendra Fadnavis took out Maha Janadesh Yatra, Aditya Thackeray was on a Jan Ashirwad Yatra and NCP had taken out Shiv Swarajy Yatra.
Second, despite all this, a notable aspect of it is the atmosphere seems to be less charged compared to previous elections. Furthermore, the Opposition parties have not been able to push the BJP-Shiv Sena ruling alliance on the backfoot even once. This is quite unusual.
Issues are there, but...
Not that the Opposition does not have issues or they did not try. For example, there is a large scale agrarian crisis in the state. In North Maharashtra, the region which produces 80 percent of the onions produced in the state, the farmers are agitating against the export ban imposed by the Modi government on onions. Their contention is that the ban has deprived them of the likely high price they could have earned in the domestic and international markets. The Opposition parties, especially the NCP, tried to raise it but could not capitalise it.
In the month of August, western Maharashtra districts like Kolhapur, Satara, Sangli witnessed unprecedented floods causing damage to sugarcane and other crops to the tune of hundreds of crores of rupees. But the state government was not agile and active enough in helping the farmers. On the other hand, most of the districts in Marathwada are facing drought-like conditions even after the monsoons are over.
Opposition leaders like Ajit Pawar, Ashok Chavan are raising these issues in their speeches. But they clearly lack the conviction to take it to the finality as, being the heads of the state for previous 15 years, some of the things are coming back to them. For example, if the Opposition tries to raise the issue of faulty implementation of loan waiver, Devendra Fadnavis retorts them back that a large number of unworthy beneficiaries were included in the loan waiver scheme during the UPA's scheme.
At present, NCP and its leader Sharad Pawar is at the forefront of the Opposition's campaign. Recently his name figured in the investigation of State Cooperative Bank's scam by the Enforcement Directorate (ED). Pawar, who was neither a director or even a member of the bank, took it upfront and, instead of waiting for the summons, readied to present himself before the ED officials. That put the ED on defensive and Fadnavis government in a tight spot. Pawar, who is 79, is trying to showcase this as an example of how the BJP is trying to frame in false cases and harass its opponents. Certainly this has helped him win a lot of sympathy across the state.
Pawar is the only leader with the Opposition who could draw a large number of crowds anywhere in the state and could connect with the youth and the rest alike. No wonder, that no one else but him gets a maximum live coverage spot on the regional televisions, even today.
Leaderless Congress
Congress is in complete disarray. It does not have any leader who could guide its campaign effectively. Its former chief ministers namely, Ashok Chavan (Bhokar- Nanded) and Prithviraj Chavan (Karad- Satara) have focussed entirely on their constituencies. Sushilkumar Shinde, who himself is not in a fray, is worried about his daughter Pranitee (Solapur). Hence, Congress candidates are left to themselves everywhere. In Mumbai, leaders like Sanjay Nirupam and Milind Deora are out of frame. The acting president Eknath Gaikwad is good for nothing as nobody listens to him.
With a lot of its leaders, including former Leader of Opposition Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil, having defected to Shiv Sena and BJP the morale of the average Congress worker is completely down. Still, it is quite interesting to note that it is the Congress which is fighting more (146) seats than the NCP (118).
The Congress and NCP have come out with a common election manifesto, in which, they have promised to give complete loan waiver to the farmers, to fix a minimum wage at 21,000, give a job in every poor family and many other things. But it lacks any such new thing that could become the talk of the town or could draw voters towards them. Interestingly, leaders of both parties are also not talking much about these promises in their elections speeches.
Stars and the 370...
On the other hand, the ruling alliance is a very well-organised campaign. Devendra Fadnavis and Uddhav Thackeray are both leading from the front. Fadnavis, at times, is addressing about six to seven meetings a day. Uddhav, who had had some health issues a few years ago, is going little steadily.
BJP's two-star campaigners Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are also there. Incidentally, both of them are talking more on Article 370, Kashmir, Pakistan et
In fact, the other day, when Amit Shah was in Latur to address a rally, he was welcomed with 370 gun salutes by the BJP activists.
There was a hue and cry over modification of Article 370 becoming an issue during the state election. But that is mostly in the media, and BJP is least bothered about the prime time discussions or editorials of some newspapers criticising them over it. For the Opposition it is like a Catch-22 situation. The general mood being pro-modification of Article 370, they can't talk much about it for the fear of being dubbed as anti-nationals.
In their speeches both Modi and Shah are also criticising Pawar, knowing well that he is the only leader who could come in the way of BJP-Sena's decisive victory. Modi had earlier tried to criticise Pawar for the remark on Kashmir which he did not make. But then, as they say, all is pardoned in love, war and Modi's propaganda.
Shiv Sena has meanwhile come out with its own brand of the manifesto, which could create trouble for it and the BJP in the future. Sena has promised to offer a meal to the poor in just 10 rupees. They have fashioned their scheme on the lines of Amma Kitchens in Tamil Nadu. But when the Chief Minister Fadnavis was asked about it the other day, he was very cautious. Sena knows about the governance and the finance and I hope they must have done their complete homework, he said.
BJP, as of now, has not come out with any manifesto. But in the last elections, they had gone to the voters almost without a manifesto when they had released it just a day or two ahead of the voting.
Rebel Factor
On this backdrop, the election does appear to be one-sided to an extent. But mind you, this scene could prove to be entirely deceptive. Consider this. Though they are together now, both BJP and Shiv Sena had been preparing to fight the elections separately. Both Uddhav and BJP state president Chandrakant Patil have accepted this in their interviews with the media. Hence, there are a lot many disappointed aspirants on both sides. This has led to large scale rebellion in many constituencies. At the last count, there were about 40 places, where either the BJP or Shiv Sena disappointed have fielded some direct or indirect candidate, which could upset the arithmetic of the main candidates. Of course, there are Congress and NCP rebels also in the fray. But their number is less. So if any of the Sena-BJP rebels help win the Congress and NCP in a big way, that could upset the calculations of BJP leadership, which is hoping to get a simple majority (145 seats) on its own so as to end its dependability on Sena in the long run.
Secondly, though the alliance looks solid on the paper, a number of activists on the ground level do not wish to work for each other's party. In some constituencies, this could prove to be very crucial in the final analysis. For example, the other day, Sanjay Raut met and had a detailed discussion with an erstwhile BJP MLA, who is now fighting against BJP in Nashik. This was almost a clear message to local Shiv Sainiks to work against the alliance candidate. Such things have happened in many places. So the competition in this election will be more from the within, if not from outside.
The Third Factor
Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar, had created a flutter in the Lok Sabha by fielding candidates under the banner of Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi. In as many as seven places his candidates helped to defeat the Congress-NCP. Hence, everybody sat and took note of it. Mr. Prakash also started his campaign very early decided to fight all the seats, after his talks with Congress failed. But meanwhile, he could not keep intact his alliance with MIM. In Lok Sabha, the MIM's Muslim votes have contributed to Vanchit's success a lot. As these parties are fighting separately, it is going to be a tough battle for both of them.
Box - The “one-sided” propaganda
Interestingly in some ways, the scene of Lok Sabha campaigning is being replicated here as well. There, Narendra Modi often would say that he did not feel that he is on campaign trail but on a pilgrimage tour of India because there is no Opposition left. Similarly, in Maharashtra, the common refrain in the speeches of Devendra and Uddhav is that there is no fun left in this election. They both attempt to project it as one-sided election by asking - “tell us who is left in the Opposition to fight for us”.
This, obviously is a part of a carefully planned strategy, just the way it was during the Lok Sabha. It is to emphasize on the minds of the voters that they do not have any alternative or second option but to vote the BJP and Shiv Sena. Perhaps, this helps a lot to gloss over the shortcomings of an incumbent government.
The other day, NCP State President Jayant Patil had a very pertinent question to ask about it – If this is so one-sided an election, why then is there any need for Modi and Shah to waste their time in addressing the public meetings here? Unfortunately for NCP and Congress, their voice or such pertinent questions are getting completely drowned in the propaganda from their opposite camp.
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