Patna: The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) led by Asaduddin Owaisi is going to benefit NDA in Bihar. AIMIM has already announced to contest Bihar election by forming United Democratic Secular Alliance with Devendra Prasad Yadav (Samajwadi Janata Dal Democratic) and the alliance is all set to divide the traditional vote share of RJD and its allies.
Political experts believe that his presence in Bihar election will not only help BJP by consolidating their Hindu vote but also divide the minority vote. Owaisi is considered a hardliner and famous for delivering fiery speeches which many times helped to polarise the vote bank on religious lines.
However, it is also true that the Owaisi factor would be more visible in the Seemanchal region mainly four districts which include Kishanganj, Araria, Purnea and Katihar. In these four districts, the fate of 24 candidates would be decided. However, Muslims play a pivotal role on at least 70 assembly seats across Bihar where they are in majority in between 15 per cent to 25 per cent in every district.
“Owaisi is the firebrand leader and he attracts the young Muslim voters who are fed up with the old guards of Bihar who have been exploiting their vote bank since ages like RJD and Congress. The young Muslim voters co-relate themselves because they believe that he speaks the language they want. It's like tit for tat language which young voters like these days. That's the reason he is going to spoil the game of RJD and its allies benefiting the BJP led NDA in Bihar”, a political science teacher of Patna University said requesting anonymity.
To understand the voting pattern of Muslims who have a total vote share of 16 per cent in Bihar, we also need to go into the past. After independence, the Muslim community have been voting for the Congress in the state. Everything was fine till the '70s but the mass sterilisation (nasbandi) in the name of family planning policy started by Sanjay Gandhi and emergency shook the Indira Gandhi government in 1975.
That time a slogan was given by the opposition Janata Party which was very famous Indira Hato, Indri Bachao (remove Indira, save organ). The fear was so much that whenever a medical van or ambulance used to pass by, people used to get scared and run away while shouting Indri Bachao.
READ: Banking on Muslim votes, Owaisi's AIMIM set to expand in Bihar
The force sterilisation created fear among the Muslims and its impact was visible when Indira Gandhi and her powerful son Sanjay Gandhi lost the Lok Saha election in 1977. Congress not only got defeated in the Lok Sabha but assembly election as well in Bihar that time and Janata Party had formed the government in the state led by Karpoori Thakur.
Muslims of Bihar also got very angry when the Rajiv Gandhi government allowed VHP to perform shilanayas at the disputed site in Ayodhya followed by Bhagalpur riots in Bihar which Congress government of Satyandra Narayan Singh failed to stop.
These are the major factors through which the Muslim voters shifted their loyalties from Congress to RJD in the '90s after the advent of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad. However, both failed to deliver any developmental plan to this community and now the entry of Owaisi going to change the political arithmetic of Muslim vote in Bihar.
A district like Kishanganj where the Muslim population is 70 per cent BJP does not see any chance to win but Owaisi can definitely divide vote bank of RJD. It means he would be indirectly benefiting the NDA giving upper edge by dividing the vote share.
So far, Owaisi party AIMIM has not brought any big change except winning one assembly seat in 2019 by-poll from Kishanganj assembly seat in the form of Qamrul Hoda. The experts also observed that Owaisi factor can damage the game plan of Grand Alliance in Bihar if candidates would be weak.
“Owaisi will not field candidates for the sake of contesting elections in every assembly constituencies. He will ensure that the candidate has winning capability and can emerge as at least second or third in terms of vote share if not first. The party has a very focused approach and they have a good track record in terms of contesting elections so that they stand a fair chance to win the seat, “said a political expert.
However, it would be interesting to see how much the Owaisi factor works in Bihar and how the division of vote takes place in the much-awaited assembly election in the state happening amid COVID pandemic.
It may be recalled that AIMIM and its allies have so far decided to contest on 50 seats, however, they are also in talks with Pappu Yadav who has formed a new front Progressive Democratic Alliance (PDA) in Bihar.
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