Patna: Political parties in Bihar are in a fix as confusion prevails over the mood of Muslim voters in the poll-bound state. Bihar, which is conducting elections under the COVID-19 shadow, conducted the first phase of elections on October 28 in 71 assembly constituencies.
Muslims account for 17 per cent of the State’s votes and have always been decisive in the battle of ballots. Before the communal riots of Bhagalpur in 1989, the majority of the people from the minority favoured Congress. The Bhagalpur riots distanced them from Congress. Lalu Prasad Yadav, who became Bihar’s Chief Minister from the Janata Dal by dethroning the Congress, emerged as the new and reliable saviour of Muslims in the state.
However, this year the grand old Congress is facing the heat for not fielding minority candidates for the first phase of Bihar elections. People in the state feel that the grand old party has lost the confidence of the minority voters, which is reflected in their ticket distribution. In the 2020 elections, the BJP has not fielded any Muslim candidate.
Lalu Prasad Yadav’s heroic image among Muslim voters remained intact till October 2005. After that, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar became the patron of Muslims in the State. Despite running the government with the help of the BJP between 2005 and 2010, Nitish did not take any such decision which would make Muslims feel that they are being ignored. The result of the 2010 assembly elections was surprising. The RJD could not shake the political citadel of Kumar and the JD(U) won many Muslim dominated assembly seats. The NDA had won 206 seats out of a total of 243 seats.
The 2015 Assembly election was such that the Muslim voters did not have any problem in choosing the candidates of their choice. For the first time since independence, all the three parties, which vouched for Muslims -- Congress, RJD and JDU -- had come together under the banner of the Grand Alliance. Therefore, Muslim voters openly voted in favour of the Grand Alliance. In the 243-member assembly, 24 Muslim candidates won -- 23 Mahagathbandhan and one of the CPI-ML. The RJD’s 12 Muslim candidates won the poll, while six of the Congress and five of the JDU. At that time, the NDA included BJP, LJP, RLSP and Hindustani Awami Morcha. No Muslim candidate of these parties won.
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How did the equation change?
If we talk about 2015 Bihar elections, the political equation of Muslim votes has completely changed. Muslims are angry with the JD(U) for taking their votes against the BJP in the last election but later forming the government with it by ditching the RJD. However, in his second government formed within five years, Nitish continued with Muslim’s welfare schemes as usual. But they are unhappy with the JD(U) for supporting the Central government over the issue of Article 370 with regard to Kashmir and the Triple Talaq Bill. It will, however, not be correct to presume that Muslims of the state will not vote for the JD(U) because of its association with the BJP. Muslim voters are speaking openly in favour of JDU candidate Bijendra Prasad Yadav, who is contesting from Supaul Assembly. The Congress has fielded young candidate Minnat Rahmani against Yadav. In fact, Bijendra will get Muslim votes thanks to his personal relations. The JDU can get Muslim votes in a few more seats like Supaul.
Grand Alliance hopeful
Despite the dilemma of Muslim voters, the constituents of the Grand Alliance -- RJD, Congress, and CPI-ML -- are expected to get Muslim votes. The topmost priority of Mahagathbandhan is to consolidate Muslim votes to defeat BJP. Muslims have favoured RJD and constitute their core vote bank. The minority community feel more comfortable with the RJD than any other party. The RJD has fielded 18 Muslim candidates in the poll which is more than JD(U). The Congress has also fielded more than 10 candidates from this community for the upcoming phases. The JD(U) has issued a strong direction to BJP to ensure that its leaders do not give provocative speeches during the election campaign. This is the reason that firebrand leaders like Giriraj Singh have been totally sidelined in the election campaign.
The Owaisi factor
The third front, consisting of RLSP, BSP and AIMIM and other smaller parties are also trying to poach into Muslim votes, but to what extent the third front coalition is able to attract Muslims towards them only the election results will make it clear. This alliance has fielded candidates in all seats. The AIMIM has fielded 24 candidates. Its president Asaduddin Owaisi is addressing election rallies. It is believed that Muslim voters will vote in favour of this alliance only on the basis of their ability to defeat the BJP candidate. More than 40 candidates of this alliance are from the Muslim community.
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