New Delhi: India will be hosting the 19th SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) heads of government summit later this year. "As per established practice and procedure within SCO, all the eight members, as well as four observer states and other international dialogue partners, will be invited," MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) Spokesman stated on 16 January.
This came as a surprise to many observers, as it implied that India would be inviting Pakistan, also a SCO member, notwithstanding her considered stand that Islamabad had to take 'credible, irreversible and verifiable' action against terror groups operating from its soil, to create a conducive atmosphere for meaningful talks to resume. Had India suddenly reversed its position? What were the compulsions? Would Prime Minister Imran Khan visit India to attend the Summit? Lots of questions are swirling around. As such there is a need for contextualisation.
Policy makers today the world over, are grappling with the 'A B C' challenge. 'A' represents the unpredictable America under the mercurial President Trump, who has little time or patience for diplomatic norms or niceties. He has tread on the toes of adversaries and allies alike, while keeping his eyes fixated on the Republican vote bank, back home.
Read: India to invite Pakistan PM for SCO Heads of Government meeting in India
'B' stands for Brexit which is almost certain to be sealed on 31 January - leaving a plethora of unanswered questions - would it mark the strengthening or unravelling of EU; what kind of an economic arrangement would Britain be able to workout with EU; Would the Euro strengthen or weaken? What would be the impact on EU economies? and what is in store for NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation)? Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg had noted that after Brexit, 80% of NATO's defence spending will come from nations outside the EU.
'C' stands for none other than China whose unprecedented rise, ambition and aggression has shaken up the established geo-strategic equilibrium, in the Indo Pacific region and beyond. In the last 200 years no country’s naval muscle has strengthened as much as China's. It is at odds with most of its neighbours including Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and India. It has already wrested control of a large chunk of the South China Sea region and is busy establishing military bases in Karachi, Djibouti and other countries. Bringing its huge foreign exchange reserves into play, Beijing has trapped numerous countries in web of debt through the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative).
India, arguably is the only country, that has been confronting the additional 'D' factor – dastardly terrorism - for over four decades, fostered by our neighbour Pakistan, a close ally of China. Both share the common objective of containing the rise of India. New Delhi has been patiently engaging Islamabad for the last 60 years to address all contentious issues and find a way to coexist peacefully. However, given Pakistan's obduracy, India decided that terror and talks could not go hand-in-hand. That is why the 16 January statement of MEA spokesperson came as a surprise to some.
It may be recalled that the China-led SCO was established in 2001. It also included Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It was conceived as a counterbalance to NATO with the objective of enhancing political, security, economic and cultural corporation among member states. With Russia's support India became a full member of SCO in 2017, along with Pakistan, whose candidature was pushed by China.
India is now to host the first-ever heads of government Summit, most likely in the second half of this year. India has little choice but to invite Pakistan, as otherwise the Summit would be called off. India is committed to playing a constructive and positive role, in this vital grouping, and does not want to cause needless ripples. New Delhi is keen to further deepen the partnership with Russia, keep China engaged and reinforce her outreach to Central Asian nations.
Read: SCO invitation to Pakistan not in bilateral capacity, says former envoy
As to the invite, this author believes that PM Imran Khan will not miss the opportunity of visiting India, will indulge in grandstanding and don the mantle of a peacenik. For that matter, one of the main purposes behind repeated Chinese efforts to raise the Kashmir issue in the UN Security Council, is to force India back to the negotiating table with Pakistan. Islamabad, on whose neck the sword of being black-listed by FATF (Financial Action Task Force) is hanging, seems to have taken a tactical decision to play to the galleries, to get FATF off its back and improve its financial health. That done, it would revert to what it does best - hatch terror plots against India.
Being pushed into resuming a premature dialogue with Pakistan or inviting it to the SCO Summit, is the price that India needs to pay for SCO membership. However, on balance the benefits of membership outweigh the political and economic costs thereof.
(Ambassador Vishnu Prakash - former Envoy to South Korea & Canada and Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs – is a foreign affairs analyst and author.)
