Srinagar: Around nine months after the Narendra Modi-led BJP government at the centre revoked Jammu and Kashmir's special status by abrogating Article 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution, the reports of the Chinese incursion into newly formed Union territory Ladakh's Galwan valley emerged.
The reports not only revived the memories of the 1999 Kargil war but also had repercussions on the local population of not only Ladakh but also Jammu and Kashmir. The locals who had just passed the era of complete shutdown and communication blockade and now they were on the threshold of another unfavourable situation.
Here's a summary of how things unfolded for the residents of the region post downgrading of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories amid pandemic and how Chinese incursion affected their lives.
IMPACT ON JAMMU AND KASHMIR
Following the killing of six Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel during two separate gunfights, last month, in north Kashmir's Handwara and Sopore area, Army officials claimed that the region will witness a rise in insurgency once again.
"The situation at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the very potential to bring a new wave of insurgency in the region. Pakistan is trying to take advantage by keeping the Line of Control (LoC) simmering and cross-border militancy active," a senior Army officer posted in Srinagar told ETV Bharat while sharing intelligence inputs. He further said that National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval too had pointed out the same thing during a review meeting regarding the security situation in J&K.
On May 9, while reviewing the J&K security situation in New Delhi, Doval had asked the security forces to be prepared for a 'hot summer'.
While the army and other security agencies are preparing to deal with a full-blown insurgency in the Valley, the security experts tell ETV Bharat that there was nothing to panic.
Defence expert Jai Kumar Verma said, "There might be reports and our security forces must be prepared for the worst situation but as far as data is concerned. It doesn't suggest an increase in the insurgency, ceasefire violations or fatalities among security forces. At least for me, there is nothing to panic and you too should feel relaxed."
According to Verma, the security forces have suffered casualties in targeted operations initiated by them and not by militants. "They work in a well-coordinated manner and the whole operation is based on intelligence, instead of the general cordon-and-search operations previously conducted by them," Verma asserts.
Meanwhile, for the observers based in Srinagar, there is a direct link between the developments at LAC and the rise of militancy in the Valley. The anger among the residents, Pakistan government's consistent statements on Kashmir and the tension at Ladakh are all linked to the abrogation of Jammu and Kashmir's special status.
"The Government of India couldn't properly judge China's aggressive diplomatic position post-August 5," a senior Kashmir based politician told ETV Bharat on the condition of anonymity.
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"China has now become a third party to Kashmir issue. I feel Ladakh is now appropriated by China and Kashmir is left to Pakistan to handle. Pakistan and China are strategic partners and have started tactical operations too. Have you observed that there is a ceasefire violation along LoC almost every day? join the dots and the things will become clearer," he said.
However, defence experts don't see the development as a coordinated attempt by China and Pakistan to foment trouble in J&K and Ladakh but feel that both the countries are trying to exploit the situation.
"At the moment I don't see any change in the pattern from Pakistan. There is nothing new in firing along the LoC, and it has been increasing regularly. The Ladakh standoff is a serious issue, but a standalone one as of now. As far as now, I don't believe that there is any link of China incursion with the current situation in J&K, but again I am not a fortune teller. So anything is possible in future," Verma says.
DELAY IN POLITICAL RESET
On May 21, BJP's National General Secretary Ram Madhav declared in a newspaper article titled "It is time to allow J&K full-fledged political activity" that the changes set in motion on August 5, 2019, in Jammu & Kashmir had reached a 'logical end' and it was an indication that the central government was ready to press the reset button in the politics of the newly formed Union Territory.
This was followed by reports that an advisory council would be appointed in J&K, headed by Apni Party leader Altaf Bukhari. The Apni Party was created precisely as a vehicle for advancing Delhi's agenda in J&K. The media reported that the prime minister discussed the creation of an advisory council with Altaf Bukhari and his 24-member delegation on March 14 in Delhi. Its launch was expected in the first week of June and its deferment has been attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, experts believe there may be more than this behind the delay.
"If the pandemic did not prevent the Centre from notifying new domicile rules for J&K on May 18, why would it prevent passing a simple administrative order to appoint an advisory council? There may be more than this behind the delay," Bharat Bhushan, senior journalist, told ETV Bharat.
He feels the Chinese incursions in Ladakh may have played a role.
"Like Pakistan, China too would not want any steps taken by India to create the impression of ‘normalcy’ in J&K. The creation of an advisory council would be a step in that direction, giving a semblance of governance through people’s participation, pending elections, Bushan said, adding, "China, in particular, has an interest in the UT of Ladakh which is twinned with the UT of J&K. While formulating its J&K policy, the Modi government may not give a fig for Pakistan’s reactions, but an upset China is a different kettle of fish. Chinese border aggression in Ladakh is being dealt with very differently, as compared to the belligerence and braggadocio in the face of similar past Pakistani actions on the LOC."
While citing Home Minister Amit Shah's August 6 speech in the Parliament, he said: "When the Home Minister refers to the (erstwhile) J&K state, he includes Pakistan administered Kashmir (‘Azad Kashmir’ and Gilgit-Baltistan) and Aksai Chin in it. On November 2, 2019, the Survey of India published new maps of the Union Territories of Ladakh and J&K. Some would say that the depiction of Gilgit-Baltistan and Aksai Chin, within the boundary of Ladakh, was just routine – a continuation of boundaries marked on the old maps of the erstwhile J&K state. However, the new maps coupled with government pronouncements may have been seen as an indication of increased belligerence on India's part."
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THE CLAIM WAR
"It's not the right time to talk about domicile issues. Let's wait for some time," he added.
Asked about the future of civil service aspirants of the UT, he said, "Now central rules apply here too. Just like any other UT of the country. There has been no separate notification in this regard from the central government after the Reorganisation Act 2019 as such it is better for all of us to have patience."
Meanwhile, politicians and unionists declined to comment on the issue saying, "we are not authorised to talk on this."
Locals, however, expressed their dismay regarding the current situation in the region.
"As I said earlier, the politicians and administration here are clueless. They only know how to be opportunists while shying away from asking basic questions. The e-gov portal (https://leh.nic.in/e-gov/online-services/) of Leh doesn't have anything regarding domicile," Hussain said, adding, "No one can guide us too."
Deskit feels Ladakh region has been haunted ever since becoming UT.
"Our queries are stonewalled. No one answers anything because no one knows anything. Domicile and delimitation is a big thing for the region and its residents but who cares. In Jammu and Kashmir, people have applied for the domicile certificate, this created panic among us too. There are a lot of questions but no answers. Let us hope there is best for us in-store," Deskit said, adding, "I feel the UT of Ladakh has been haunted ever since Article 370 was abrogated. People, the administration is oblivious while living under the threat of war with China."
THE LADAKH STANDOFF
With India and China agreeing to the fact that it was necessary for both the sides to implement the understandings reached between the senior commanders of the Indian Army and Chinese People Liberation Army (PLA) for disengagement of troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh have brought much need relief to the residents of the region.
Sharing his personal experience with ETV Bharat, Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council's councillor from Chushul Konchok Stanzin, said, "This is good news that both the armies have come to some conclusion and the disengagement is underway. The people of my area were more worried about their only source of income - grazing lands. Pastures are our lifeline and if the talks between the two armies failed again that meant loss of livelihood for us. But thankfully everything went fine. The fear among the people yet to go as the deployment of troops is still not reduced. You won't believe in the past few months the huge troop movement in the area brought back the nightmare of the 1962 war. There was panic everywhere. Imagine 150-300 army vehicles passing through villages every day."
"I hope there is no further escalation," Stanzin says with a sigh.
Stanzin couldn't confirm the present ground situation; he had confined himself to Leh only since June 2, 2020.
For Korzok Council's Gurmet Dorjay, the 'unchecked' Chinese intrusion has been going on for decades.
"Two years ago, Chinese objected to religious prayers held at Nurbu Tamcho where we would go regularly. They claimed the area falls under their territory. After continuous objections, the authorities stopped us from going there," Dorjay said.
