Hyderabad: One mountain cannot contain two tigers- goes an old Chinese saying, implying that two strong nations cannot co-exist in one geography. No prizes for guessing, in the prevailing geostrategic context, that the mountain denotes Asia, with the tigers being China and India.
In Mandarin, China refers to itself as ‘Zhonggou’ or the ‘Middle Kingdom’ implying that it is the centre of the world. And therein lies the rub! China has an exaggerated notion of its stature and finds it difficult to engage with other nations as equals.
India and China are two of the world’s most ancient civilizations, separated by the formidable Himalayan mountains. The Chinese leaders are fond of saying that 99% of the time, both countries have had good relations. That was true in the pre-modern era. However, since the late 1950s bilateral relations have been testy with the Communist Party of China (CPC).
Chinese assertiveness and ambition have grown in tandem with its economic and military muscle. Its GDP (over $ 12 trillion in 2017) is at least four times larger than India’s and so is its defence budget. The pace of modernization of Chinese military is matched by none.
Indian Navy Chief Admiral Sunil Lanba noted recently that China had added 80 new ships in the preceding five years. No other navy had grown so rapidly in the last 200 years. China would have a fleet of 3 aircraft carriers by 2022, bringing its dream of having a blue-water navy, closer.
India needs to reckon with the “depressing reality” of China significantly outpacing her “in virtually all categories of national power - economic, military and now, technological”, opines former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, adding – “India's diminishing room for manoeuvre vis-à-vis China is a reality…. The impact of the long-standing China-Pakistan alliance will become more lethal and further constrain India”.
Pakistan, which harbours compulsive hostility towards India is glad to be the cat’s-paw of China. In exchange China has been doling out financial & military assistance, including nuclear and ballistic missiles technology. Pakistan is assured of Chinese support and protection in waging a proxy war against India. China condemns terrorism proforma but had no qualms about preventing the UNSC from designating the likes of Masood Azhar, the mastermind of several covert operations against India, as a global terrorist, for 10 years.
China, the current chair of FATF (Financial Action Task Force) is likely to save Pakistan from being blacklisted during the plenary in Paris next month, for financing terror. She is the only major power that is supporting Pakistan’s misguided efforts to internationalize the non-issue of Kashmir, after the Parliament of India resolved to abrogate Articles 370 and 35A, which temporarily granted a special autonomous status to J&K.
Let us then turn to the critical issue of the 4000 km long un-delineated boundary between India and China. Given the nature of the boundary and difficult terrain, 100s of incursions happen annually, but get resolved quickly. Thanks to the 1993 Agreement on Maintaining Peace and Tranquillity along the LAC (Line of Actual Control), not one shot has been fired in anger, by either side. However, of late incursions are increasing and tense standoffs are taking place more frequently, especially before any major visit between India and China. China appears intent on regularly testing Indian defences and resolve.
The sides were engaged in a major standoff over the Doklam plateau during June - August 2017 that lasted 73 days, ending just a few days before the Xiamen BRICS summit. The idea of an informal summit originated there. It took place in Wuhan in April 2018 when the leaders met six times in two days for frank tete-a-tete and delegation level talks. A former Indian envoy to Beijing described it as - “an exercise in understanding the other side's point of view, its dreams, its goals and objectives, its assessments and its strategies”. It was agreed to hold a follow-up informal summit in India, which is likely to take place in Varanasi on 11-12 October.
While the unprecedented engagement did manage to lower the temperatures, it appears that the Wuhan spirit did not last very long, as is evident from the Chinese positions and actions outlined above. All the same it is not in India’s interest to have antagonistic relations with China. It also reduces our leverage with key interlocutors like the US. As such India has always endeavoured to build on bilateral convergences and narrow the divergences.
Bilateral trade is growing, but so is the trade deficit ($57.86 billion in 2018, compared to $51.72 billion in 2017) with China continuing to raise non-tariff barriers. More Indian students are heading to China. Some 21,000 are studying MBBS across 100 Chinese universities. The Chinese people are taking a shine to Bollywood, with movies like Dangal becoming huge hits in China.
However, China shows little sensitivity towards India’s core concerns, be it the boundary or terrorism issues, India’s membership of NSG and UNSC or vis-à-vis Pakistan. On the other hand - “China wants the world to surrender to its core interests” notes Peter Varghese, former foreign secretary of Australia. He further avers that it is possible to restrain but not contain China.
That is where grouping like the QUAD (Australia, Japan, the US and India) assume importance in signalling to China that its aggression will entail a cost. China does mellow a bit when it is under external pressure, as it is at present, due to factors like trade dispute with the US, global push back on BRI (Belt and Road initiative) and stealthy militarization of the South China Sea.
The Varanasi summit would be taking place in such a backdrop. China may be open to mending fences with India even if over the short term. More people-to-people especially youth and sporting exchanges could fructify. Some headway on trade issues is a possibility. But the most important outcome is the meeting itself! Staying engaged at the highest level helps clear a lot of fog.
The challenge for Indian diplomacy remains to suitably manage adversarial relations with China and prevent them from turning inimical. India needs to keep its powder dry, deepen partnerships especially with fellow democracies in the Indo-Pacific like the US, Japan and Indonesia, continue strengthening its economy and military capabilities, as well as, guard against surprises from China.
Also read: Kashmir dichotomy and the importance of an 'exit strategy'
