New Delhi: For few weeks now, Kamal Nath led Congress government of Madhya Pradesh has been challenged by internal dissension. Nath weathered the first threat to his stability when 14 of his MLA’s were ferried to a Gurugram Hotel near Delhi, but the latest one- though expected- can bring down the Congress government till Kamal Nath manages to do a Sharad Pawar in Bhopal.
If one goes by numbers then Kamal Nath fate seems to be sealed as Jyotiraditya Scindia, who fancied himself as the State’s Chief Minister when the Congress miraculously won in the assembly elections in December 2018, resigned from the party and claims to have walked away with 22 MLAs.
Congress, which has been left with some 99 MLAs needs 104 in a truncated house of 206. Kamal Nath sees a chance to save his government and has hidden his MLAs in a resort- quite like the BJP. It’s a contest- when it happens on the floor of the house- where billions of rupees and coercive powers of competing governments will be used to persuade MLAs to change their political loyalty.
Another hopeless saga of political immorality epitomized by unaccounted money, sleaze will play out as parties seek to make or unmake government.
BJP, which was earlier giving an impression of pursuing a 'no hands' policy is deeply immersed and engaged in not just toppling the government, but also garnering enough MLAs to win more MP’s to the Rajya Sabha then what it would earn after the string of losses in States. BJP is desperate to have a majority in the Rajya Sabha and with its colossal financial and other tangible and intangible resources and instruments is threatening to wreak other opposition governments in Jharkhand, Rajasthan and even Maharashtra.
What needs to be seen is how far the party can succeed in its enterprise.
The fact that money is an issue in this operation topple can be evidenced from the fact that one of the MLAs that returned to the Congress fold in MP revealed that he was offered Rs.25 crores. Another whistleblower has claimed Rs.100 crores. At a time when the economy is going through a precipitous decline, these rates border on the bizarre.
Read: Congress tasks senior leaders for crisis management in Madhya Pradesh
While money is a major attraction for many of the MLAs who spend colossal funds to win elections, what also rankles some is that the party is not providing enough space for their young leaders to realize their political potential. Jyotiraditya Scindia, a friend and supporter of Rahul Gandhi, had been seeking a larger role within the state party, but the joint leadership of Kamla Nath and Digvijay Singh kept him away from any serious job.
He had removed his association with the Congress some months ago from his twitter handle- a move that raised many eyebrows. However, he continued to be ambivalent about his next move. At times he would be critical of the Congress party’s official position on the abrogation of Article 370, on other occasions, he would display his angst at the happenings during the recent Delhi riots where he was critical of the BJP government and the manner in which it was dividing the society.
It seemed though his ideological positions were skin deep largely grounded in realpolitik and opportunism. Scindia, whose grandmother was one of the founders of the BJP and his two aunts hold senior positions in the party, has been trying to get into the Rajya Sabha after he suffered a defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Scindia lost by a lakh vote to a subaltern BJP candidate whose campaign was against the Gwalior Palace.
Read: Who facilitated Scindia's cross-over to BJP from Congress?
This loss must have deepened his worry lines realizing that Guna from where he contested successfully thrice was no longer a safe seat and he needed to pre-empt a repetition of 2019 results. His joining of BJP, when it happens, would be an attempt to secure his turf.
Kamal Nath, who refuses to throw in the towel, has the guile to bring back some MLAs. He has refused to submit to the pressure exerted by Scindia and has conveyed to the party President that he would rather give a Rajya Sabha seat to Priyanka Gandhi than the scion of the Gwalior House. He has been supported by Digvijay Singh, who has never shown any fondness for the Gwalior House or 'Maharaj'.
By the look of it, departure of Scindia would constitute a body blow to the Congress party. Coming as it does after its inability to hold on to its flock in Karnataka when it allowed 17 of its legislators to cross over to an ideologically opposed BJP. The fact that the BJP is poaching so many of them is a poor reflection of the choice of candidates and the party leadership’s ability to preserve an ideological rigour.
In their search for winnability, many times the Congress party has been giving tickets to those who have been in the past with the BJP or Janata Dal(S). These MLAs find nothing really wrong in crossing over to the BJP. This lack of untouchability tickles the pro-Hindutva as it can draw MLAs from anywhere.
Where does this leave the Congress party? After the 2019 parliament elections, Congress is a ship adrift. Rahul Gandhi took the blame for the colossal loss and resigned as the President. His request for an election to choose a President was not entertained by the cabal that surrounds her mother Sonia Gandhi. She was asked to carry on as the President until a new chief could be elected. Sonia is unwell.
She did not campaign for the party in the Delhi elections and instead allowed the party votes to be transferred to the Aam Aadmi Party under the pretext of putting up a worthy opposition to the BJP. This flawed tactic may have earned them some momentary praise from disconnected liberals, but diminished Congress further. When some Congress leaders praised the AAP’s win to establish setback for the BJP, many others wondered how the grand old party benefited from this. Congress voter percentage slipped to 4 per cent.
Congress conundrum is how to build an opposition to the BJP. Many are of the view that the anti-CAA protest has created a pan-India opposition to the ruling party and only a political party can harness this wind. Others are of the belief that Congress, which has never led an agitation after independence, has to be ready for the next parliament elections, which is still four years away.
There may be merit in this argument, but Congress is suffering from confusion on who should lead it and its ideology. Rahul Gandhi was advised by his handlers to stay away from the minorities if he wanted to steer the party towards an electoral win. He did that in Gujarat elections- displaying fetish for visiting all kinds of religious shrines.
He ensured that there was not a single selfie with anyone with a fez cap. It’s this confusion on account of how to countenance the minorities that is shaping the Congress party. If the party cannot stand with the country’s minorities than its no different from the BJP, which takes pride in devaluing the impact of the Muslim vote.
As the countrywide protests rage against CAA and NRC, the Congress has only paid lip service to the cause. Gandhis have shied away from visiting the sites where women are protesting against CAA like Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh, lest they are savaged by BJP trolls for pandering to the Muslims. If the Congress party has to build on this anti-CAA movement to create a coherent opposition outside the parliament than it would have to shake off the control the BJP and its ideological mothership, Rashtriya Swayamsevak exercises on them and reassert its inclusive politics that helped the country win independence from the British.
However, if the conduct of the opportunist Congressmen is anything to go by then they do not have the stomach to wage such a difficult battle against the BJP. It is due to these reasons that the state governments like Rajasthan, Chattisgarh under the Congress will remain very vulnerable and susceptible to toppling and poaching by the BJP.
Also, read: Madhya Pradesh political crisis: Scindia repeats history after 53 years