New Delhi: Amid soaring military tension with India across eastern Ladakh, the nascent ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’ or ‘Quad’, an informal grouping comprising India, US, Australia and Japan, is already facing its first major test with China’s escalatory and challenging military moves over Taiwan across East China and South China seas.
How the developments pan out vis-à-vis China’s open challenge in the next few weeks will potentially redefine the contours of global geopolitics in the face of Chinese efforts to blunt the Quad.
Even as various media reports speak of hectic Chinese preparations for a purported ‘invasion’ of Taiwan, China has mobilised its military assets in Fujian and Guangdong provinces that face the Taiwan Strait including the deployment of long-range D-17 hypersonic missiles possibly aimed to fight off US moving targets and prevent intervention, while the already positioned D-11 and D-15 missiles can hit targets in Taiwan.
On Monday, India announced that Australia would be part of Indian Navy-hosted ‘Exercise Malabar’ that will take place later this year.
“As India seeks to increase cooperation with other countries in the maritime security domain and in the light of increased defence cooperation with Australia, Malabar 2020 will see the participation of the Australian Navy,” a release said.
Expected to be held in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea later this year, ‘Malabar’ was conducted off the coast of Guam in the Philippine Sea in 2018, and off the coast Japan in 2019.
‘Malabar Exercise’ began as a bilateral India-US naval exercise in 1992. It became a trilateral affair with the entry of Japan in 2015. In 2007, Australia had joined in as a non-permanent member which had attracted China’s stiff opposition which saw it as an ‘anti-China’ alignment of forces. In recent times, China has called the Quad a ‘mini-NATO’. India already has regular bilateral naval exercises with the US, Australia and Japan.
Interestingly, in spite of the Ladakh crisis, India’s political leadership has not spoken out strongly against China even during the Quad meet in Tokyo on October 6.
But with the grouping of the four countries in ‘Malabar 2020’ now, India may be drawn into the growing crisis over Taiwan a despite its obvious disinclination as it doesn’t have any stake nor is there anything to be gained.
With just a few weeks more at the White House for the remaining part of this tenure, US President Donald Trump is known to look as Quad as part of his legacy. With prospects of his returning to the office not looking very bright, a possible Joe Biden presidency may only lead to an overhaul of US’ China policy.
In that case, for India to make Quad a corner-stone of its foreign policy may be an unwise thing to do particularly when not many friends remain in its South Asian neighbourhood.
Equally significant in this backdrop is the diminishing stature of US economic might.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Output 2020 recently-released report has said China with its $24.2 trillion economy has beat US to become the world’s largest economy in terms of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) index.
A few months back, the World Bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP) had reported that China’s total real (inflation-adjusted) income has grown to more than that of the US.
Another factor India will have to consider is the gradual giving up of space by the US in multilateral global fora to the benefit of the Chinese. An example is the US’ diminishing influence at the World Health Organization (WHO).
These are considerations that should be looked well into before an all-out alliance against China in Taiwan.
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