Hyderabad: A new security partnership in the Asia-Pacific will see the UK and US provide Australia with the technology and capability to deploy nuclear-powered submarines. American officials have said the move was not aimed at countering Beijing.
However experts say the AUKUS agreement signals a paradigm shift in strategy and policy across the region. The timing of the new deal is particularly significant. It comes just a month after the US exit from Afghanistan, when doubts have been raised in multiple quarters about US commitment in the region. Britain too is eager to be more involved in the Asia-Pacific especially after its exit from the European Union, and Australia is increasingly concerned about China's influence. All three nations are drawing a line in the sand to start and counter the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) aggressive moves in the Indo-Pacific. The three nations are taking a combined stance on this and making a commitment to a stable and secure Indo-Pacific region.
The agreement involves the sharing of information and technology in a number of areas including intelligence and quantum technology as well as the acquisition of cruise missiles. But the nuclear submarines are key. They are to be built in Adelaide in South Australia and will involve the US and the UK providing consultation on technology for their production. A nuclear submarine has enormous defence capabilities and therefore ramifications for the region. Only six countries in the world have nuclear submarines. A nuclear submarine has really powerful deterrent capability without being armed with nuclear weapons.
Nuclear submarines are much more stealthy than conventional ones – they operate quietly, are able to move easily and are harder to detect. At least eight submarines will be supported, although it's not clear when they will be deployed. The process will take longer due to a lack of nuclear infrastructure in Australia. They will not be nuclear armed, only powered with nuclear reactors. Australia is not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons or establish a civil nuclear capability. The US and UK are willing to take the big step of exporting nuclear technology to a non-nuclear powered nation.
In recent years, China has demonstrated increasing power and influence in the region. The threats against Taiwan and events in Hong Kong and the rapid militarisation of the South China Sea all point to this. So really when it comes to strategic issues, deterrents seem to be the only thing that makes sense against China. The US has been investing heavily in other partnerships in the region too like Japan, South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines, as well as India and Vietnam. This could benefit all of them in the face of concerns about China's growing power.
Political relations between Beijing and Canberra deteriorated after Australia backed a global inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus. The AUKUS pact shows that not only Australia is aligning itself with the US and UK but also signals a vote of confidence in Australia which is looking to play a more active role in Asian security. Just because Australia has nuclear submarines doesn't mean it is more powerful than China. But it does change the balance of power in the region. If China does face a security situation in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, it will affect the military preparedness or response that China will have to prepare for.
Also read: UK, US, Australia launch new trilateral Indo-Pacific alliance AUKUS
The strategic implications of AUKUS for the geopolitics of the extended Indo-Pacific region in general, and the maritime domain in particular, are significant and multi-layered. This major policy decision comes just ahead of the first in-person Quad summit to be held in Washington September 24 that will bring together the leaders of the US, India, Japan and Australia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is travelling to the US this week for the Quad summit and the annual UN General Assembly deliberations, will also have a bilateral meeting with US President Joe Biden for the first time in person since the latter assumed office.
The Donald Trump administration had accorded high priority to the Indo-Pacific in the US security calculus, and the Biden administration has retained, and further built on, this focus. The first multilateral summit, convened by Biden in March, at the virtual level, was of Quad leaders. As is the norm with Quad, no explicit reference was made to China but the four leaders (Biden, Modi, Yoshihide Suga, and Scott Morrison) shared their vision of an Indo-Pacific that is “free, open, resilient and inclusive”, and which, they added, has “increasingly been tested”. They also asserted that this had only “strengthened our resolve to reckon with the most urgent of global challenges together”. Despite his preoccupation with Afghanistan and domestic politics, Biden has clearly sustained the initiative and energy displayed in March on the Indo-Pacific.
AUKUS sherpas have worked swiftly over the last six months to bring Australia into the small group of nations that have nuclear-propelled submarines. The rationale for the decision to enable Australia with nuclear boatsis to address both the current strategic environment in the region and how it may evolve. The future of each of the nations — and indeed the world — depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific, enduring and flourishing in the decades ahead. The strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific has been roiled by China’s muscular assertiveness in the South China Sea in recent years. Beijing’s blatant rejection of international law, the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), related to the maritime domain was compounded by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy resorting to unilateral muscle-flexing to advance its own interpretation of historical territorial claims over disputed waters. Th smaller Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) neighbours were intimidated by this belligerence and China has defiantly contested the “free and open Indo-Pacific” formulation of the global community.
Quad nations have been consistent in upholding the principle of freedom of navigation, as contained in UNCLOS, at the political and diplomatic levels. However, there had been much speculation over whether the US, in partnership with like-minded nations, would be able to lend this principle any tangible military profile. AUKUS is the first step that conveys the US resolve to punctuate the maritime domain in a manner that will not only protect Australia’s core security interests, but shape the regional strategic environment.
