The aggressive campaign by the BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have given the impression that the party is desperate for a win for the seventh consecutive time in Gujarat. It fears a huge loss because of a host of anti-incumbency factors working against its ministers, and legislators and the rise of some rebels in some seats could be seen to be working against the official candidates.
But the assessment on the ground, even by the BJP's rivals, is that Modi is not worried about the chances of the party returning to power. Rather, he wants the BJP to set a new record in the haul of seats--just as the Congress had done in 1985 under Madhav Singh Solanki. In that year, the Congress won 149 of the total 182 seats in the Gujarat Assembly. Modi is understood to have set a target of 150 seats for the BJP rank and file to strive for--even though his second-in-command Amit Shah believes a realistic number of 130 may be won.
The obsession
Why the obsession for record-making, one may ask. Modi believes that the BJP must show to all its detractors that its sway over Gujarat is not under threat whatsoever-- even if new players like Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) under Arvind Kejriwal have sought to change the narrative in the state with their largesse of freebies and doles.
BJP managers believe that Modi wants the BJP to take advantage of two factors: the AAP which began with a lot of drive and enthusiasm two months ago is losing steam after it named its candidates, many of them unknown faces, in keenly contested areas of Saurashtra and South Gujarat.
Secondly, the success of AAP nominees will be at the cost of the Congress, which appears to be unable to regain the drive it had in the last assembly elections held in 2017 when it restricted the BJP's tally to just 99 -- the lowest number of seats won by the BJP since it came to power 27 years ago.
Pro-incumbency
As even the Opposition leaders analyse, Gujarat is witnessing a battle that involves a pro-incumbency wave for Modi as before versus a deep undercurrent against the current lot of BJP establishment, represented by its ministers, former ministers and MLAs. Modi is very much a popular figure among the people of Gujarat having served as their chief minister between 2001 and 2014.
Yes, there is disenchantment with the quality of governance Modi's successors Anandibhen Patel (who is now governor of Uttar Pradesh) and Vijay Rupani who succeeded her following the Patel community's agitation for the reservation that hurt the BJP's prospects in 2017.
However, Modi's personalised appeal to voters is definitely helping the BJP overcome its shortcomings. That is why Modi, in his first election rally in poll-bound Gujarat on November 6, coined a new slogan: “Aa Gujarat, mai bhanavyu chhe (I have made this Gujarat).” He predicted a massive victory for the BJP as he launched a veiled attack on the opposition, saying that the forces spreading hatred and defaming Gujarat will be swept out of the state.
Call for record voter turnout
As in Himachal Pradesh, and also in Gujarat, Modi has not minced words in stating that “Remember, who is the BJP candidate? You don’t have to remember anyone. Simply remember the lotus… If you see ‘kamal ka phool’ while casting your vote, understand that this is the BJP, this is Modi who has come to you. Your every vote for ‘kamal ka phool’ will come directly to Modi’s account as a blessing.”
Not only that, Modi makes it a point at every election rally to emphasise that the people must turn up in large numbers on polling day and break all the previous records of voter turnout in the state elections. “In this election, I want people to turn up in large numbers at their respective polling booths on the voting day and break all the previous records of voter turnout. I am not saying you should vote for the BJP only. Just ensure that each and every citizen takes part in this festival of democracy. This is my appeal to everyone,” Modi says in his address.
Another thing Modi tells voters is that "make sure the BJP wins each and every booth here. Will you do it for me? This time, my focus is to win all the polling booths here. If you will help me in achieving this, the BJP candidates will automatically reach the assembly in Gandhinagar.”
Credits to incumbent CM
Modi says does not mind the credit going to incumbent CM Bhupendra Patel. “I want to ensure that Bhupendra (Patel) breaks the records of Narendra. That will mean I can go back to doing my work in Delhi. We all need to work hard to take Gujarat and the country ahead on the path of development."
Many voters may be in the search of an alternative but the state of the opposition does not inspire confidence. Kejriwal remains an untested political entity and the Congress greatly misses strategists like late Ahmed Patel.
In September 2021, Modi undertook a major corrective course in Gujarat when he replaced unpopular CM Vijay Rupani, who was seen as Amit Shah's appointee, with a greenhorn, Bhupendra Patel. Along with Rupani, several old faces who were ministers were sacked. They have been denied tickets too to contest this year's election. That also meant efforts to win back the support of the Patel community, which had dumped the BJP in the 2017 polls.
Patel factor
In this year's election, the BJP is confident that the Patels or Patitdars are fully behind it as they were earlier--before the quota agitation led by youths who included Hardik Patel. He is now in the BJP after a stint in Congress. Apart from the Patel community, Modi has got the BJP leaders to work furiously in the Adivasi belt so that the party gains a maximum number of seats to compensate for losses in Saurashtra and South Gujarat.
Modi is very confident that the people of Gujarat will not let him down. At all rallies, Modi lists all things that his chief ministership brought to Gujarat, from the completion of the Narmada Dam to bringing water-starved parts of the state to the launch of many new projects in every sector. If BJP wins again, it will create history. It has won six consecutive assembly elections -- in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017.
The BJP’s peak performance was in the December 2002 elections under Modi, when the party had bagged 127 of the total 182 seats. In 2017, its tally shrunk to 99, while the Congress got 77. The near-collapse of the Congress machinery in 2022 has disappointed its supporters. As a political commentator said, "there is very much support for the Congress among the people--but the Congress leaders are themselves not striving to meet that expectation."
