Dubai : As the climate talks in Dubai spinned into their final hours, negotiators on Monday released the latest draft on the global stocktake, deemed the most critical document of COP28, which notably omits any mention of the "phase out of fossil fuels".
However, the draft does suggest countries could agree on reducing the "production and consumption of fossil fuels" for the first time in the history of UN climate conferences. Several countries and the EU have emphasised that a deal to "phase out all fossil fuels" would signal success for COP28. "The COP28 Presidency has been clear from the beginning about our ambitions. This text reflects those ambitions and is a huge step forward. Now, it is in the hands of the Parties, who we trust to do what is best for humanity and the planet," the COP28 Presidency said in a statement.
The latest draft of the global stocktake, based on which countries will announce their new action plan to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius next year, indicates a strong pushback from fossil-fuel reliant economies such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq against the phase-out of all fossil fuels, an outcome that seemed feasible until this evening.
Observers said this could still be included in the final text if nations push hard for it and commit to rapidly scaling up finance for poor and developing countries. The earlier draft presented four options for a "fossil fuel phase out". but none made it to the newest version released on Monday evening.
The updated draft lists eight options that "could" slash greenhouse gas emissions. These include "reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner to achieve net-zero emissions by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with science". The text features stringent language, although optional, regarding coal, to the detriment of heavily coal-dependent countries like India and China.
"Rapidly phasing down unabated coal and imposing limitations on new and unabated coal power generation," it reads. Approximately 40 per cent of global CO2 emissions stem from coal, while oil and gas contribute to the remaining percentage. India, relying on coal for about 70 per cent of its power generation, aims to add 17 gigawatts of coal-based power generation capacity in the next 16 months.
The draft acknowledges the importance to triple global renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency rates by 2030, yet lacks specifics. The International Energy Agency insists that achieving this is critical to avoid breaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. The document calls for the scaling up of technologies, including underperforming ones, to capture CO2 emissions from the atmosphere.
There are references to equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. These principles acknowledge that countries' efforts to combat climate change should be considered in light of their contributions to total emissions. They also stress that wealthier nations should bear primary responsibilities due to their substantial historical emissions.
However, there is a noticeable absence of language in the adaptation section regarding the obligation of developed countries to provide finance. The mitigation section in the previous version of the GST text referred to the obligation of developed countries to take the lead in securing finance. This has been removed, according to Brandon Wu from ActionAid USA.
Until now, statements from a large number of countries suggested a consensus on the need to phase out fossil fuels at COP28, but a small minority of countries have been blocking this text, observers said. "Strong language on a support package for the energy transition and scaling up of renewable energy in developing countries could help these countries come on board. However, there's a lack of strong acknowledgement of the need for differentiation," said Catherine Abreu, the executive director of Destination Zero.
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