New Delhi: With existing pacts and alliances flailing to counter an increasingly powerful and assertive China, on Thursday (India time), a surprise announcement was made in a virtual press conference jointly by US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announcing the formation of a new military alliance—AUKUS.
The new entity AUKUS at its core is a trilateral military pact between the English-speaking cousins Australia, UK, and the US.
Although China was not directly mentioned by any of the leaders, it was really a no-brainer who the real adversary was. What the AUKUS immediately brings to the table is the arming of Australia with at least eight nuclear-powered submarines substantially altering strategic equations in the Indo-Pacific realm.
Surprisingly keeping the world in the dark as many top officials of AUKUS must have gone about trying to clear the groundwork for the new body, the first target has already been set—that of equipping Australia with at least eight nuclear-powered submarines within a certain time-frame.
A nuclear-powered submarine has far greater endurance capabilities that enables it to remain underwater for months and that makes it a perfect stealth weapon that can operate in the waters of any part of the world.
QUAD
What the ‘Quad’ was to Don Trump, AUKUS is to Joe Biden. But the sole purpose remains the same at the core—that of countering an increasingly powerful and assertive China.
‘Quad’ is of course the four-nation ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’ comprising Australia, India, Japan and US.
While Trump made ‘Quad’ the cornerstone of his foreign policy that focused entirely on China as an adversary, it was a confused entity. There are no clear answers as to whether ‘Quad’ is a military, naval, maritime, an economic alliance or a humanitarian and disaster relief effort.
Read: China blasts US-led first In-person Quad Summit
There was also a resistance on part of India to be a part of a NATO-like military pact under the aegis of the US as it would pit India against traditional friend Russia. Nor was India willing to adopt an all-out belligerent posture against powerful China.
India’s idea of ‘Quad’ was more of an alliance of democratic nations that will focus on economic activity and set up infrastructure projects to promote connectivity to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
‘Quad’ is also based on a weak mooring because of the four powers, only the US was a major naval force, at least to the extent of challenging China. But what has affected ‘Quad’ the most is lack of willingness of the Biden administration to actually push it.
Read: PM Modi speaks to Australian counterpart ahead of Quad meeting
NATO
AUKUS has also brought to fore the growing fractures within NATO. While the US has been vociferous about China as the primary adversary, it did not find many takers in continental Europe. Germany and France as well as European Union (EU) indicated it was not ready to play ball with the US on China.
On the contrary, on the day AUKUS was announced, the EU—otherwise an unfailing NATO adherent—chose to announce a parallel strategy called “The EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific”.
The EU declares in its strategy: “The EU will also pursue its multifaceted engagement with China, engaging bilaterally to promote solutions to common challenges, cooperating on issues of common interest and encouraging China to play its part in a peaceful and thriving Indo-Pacific region.”
Nothing could underline the fact more that NATO’s relevance is undergoing erosion than what French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian had to say of the AUKUS which would effectively mean Australia cancelling its $90 billion submarine-making deal with France as the latter would be replaced by the US now. “It's a stab in the back. We had established a trusting relationship with Australia, and this trust was betrayed,” he said.
If NATO had developed cracks before AUKUS, now it is a divided house, more so, after disagreements among the members on the way the withdrawal from Afghanistan was handled by the US.
FIVE-EYES
The growth of China’s power has also brought up fissures within the none-decades-old exclusive and secretive club of spy rings of five governments—Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and US—called ‘Five Eyes’.
Although it started off primarily as a collaboration to intercept and share intelligence that the members can use for diplomatic, security, military and economic benefits and gains, the role of ‘Five Eyes’ was further enhanced and expanded during the global ‘War on Terror’ following the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon.
The role got further amplified when last year, the ‘Five-Eyes’ issued a joint statement when it castigated China on its Hong Kong policy.
On November 18, 2020, its statement had said: “Following the imposition of the National Security Law and postponement of September’s Legislative Council elections, this decision further undermines Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy and rights and freedoms… We urge the Chinese central authorities to re-consider their actions against Hong Kong’s elected legislature and immediately reinstate the Legislative Council members.”
The joint statement castigating China underlines the spying allies out-stepping their traditional ‘cloak and dagger’ work and stepping into the realm of strategy and policy.
Clearly ‘Five Eyes’ was enhancing its mandate to take on China.
But that was not to be. There was no unanimity and consensus among the five members on now to take on China. For example, New Zealand did not want its China ties impacted.
Clearly, AUKUS is being built on the edifice of old pacts and alliances.
Read: UK, US, Australia launch new trilateral Indo-Pacific alliance AUKUS
