Analysis: Biden presidency to witness significant changes in global scenario, says former diplomat

According to former envoy Ashok Sajjanhar, the normal diplomatic exchange between the United States and its alliance partners and other countries will be restored during the Biden presidency. In his view, there will be more stability in bilateral relations and greater predictability unlike in the tenure of Donald Trump who failed to understand the fine details of US foreign policy, reports senior correspondent Chandrakala Choudhury.

New Delhi: While Democrat Joe Biden is the United States President-elect after defeating President Donald Trump clinching nearly 75 million votes so far, so what does a Joe Biden presidency means for India, China and the world?

It is pertinent to note that Joe Biden has received more than 50 per cent of the country’s popular vote, compared with Trump’s 48 percent.

To discuss more on the same, ETV Bharat spoke to Former Diplomat Ashok Sajjanhar as to what does Biden’s Presidency means for the world and what happens next?

Excerpts from the interview

• What Biden’s victory means for India and the rest of the world from Beijing to Berlin? Your take on this

Election of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States the most powerful countries in the world will see several very significant changes on the global scene. The first is that Donald Trump had through his actions and policies completely disrupted the normal conduct of International relations. For instance, he was disrespectful, brisk and aggressive to his allies whether it was the EU countries, NATO countries and even neighbours like Canada, Mexico or Japan, Australia, South Korea, he had rubbed all these countries on the wrong side.

So, the first change that the world is going to witness is that there is going to be a normal diplomatic exchange between the United States and its alliance partners and other countries. There is going to be much greater stability as far as the conduct of relation is concerned. There is going to be greater predictability because since Donald Trump did not have a very detail or find a nuanced understanding of the conduct of foreign policies, he used to operate based on his whims and fancies. That is going to change now; Biden once he takes over is going to fill up all the position in the state dept, Dept of Commerce and Defence Department. There is going to be a much more regular exchange.

Also, there are several international agreements that Trump had withdrawn from, the most important of them is the ‘Climate Change Accord’. One of the first decisions that the Biden administration is to take is to rejoin the Climate Change accord and also will take action on that. Secondly, in terms of WHO, the United States I am sure will rejoin. As far as the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is concerned, I am not certain because, although Trump might have been defeated in the US the ‘trumpism’ or the policies that he advocated in terms of ‘America first’ or buying America and creating tariff walls, imports from other countries or outsourcing of manufacture of goods and services for America to other countries, the policies espoused and put in place by Trump are going to continue for sometimes particularly the economic condition as a result of the pandemic is not very good. Trans-Pacific is still a question mark.

But we need to realize that there has been a cataclysmic change, metamorphose has taken place in the Middle-East over the last 4 years. For instance, the relation between Israel, UAE, and Bahrain has grown; the UN has said that Iran has already started enriching Uranium. So maybe the negotiations will start but it cannot be rewind back to what it was earlier. Overall, if we look at the global scenario in general, it will be more stable and predictable. There would be much greater decorum, diplomatic norms and procedures, proprieties that are going to be observed and many changes would be witnessed in terms of substantive issues.

• Do you see Biden victory offers another challenge for a Chinese system devoid of democratic control?

It will be interesting to see how President Biden response to the Challenge from China. There is Bi-partisan support in the United States as far as the threat from China is concerned. Now it is not only seen as a threat or a rival but seen as an enemy which is hell-bent determined to displace the United States from its position of primacy as the most pre-eminent power in the world and to challenge the US and occupy the position. In my view, the push back against China will continue, although the tactics or style might be somewhat different.

There is a possibility that Joe Biden might reach out to China and start discussing so that they can come to a trade or a technological deal. But if this were to happen and if the push back whether it is in the South China Sea or as far as the ‘Quad’ grouping is concerned, if it does not continue to be so robust as it has been over the last few months, then China can construe as a sign of weakness and might try to take advantage of it by acting against Taiwan which could be fatal or against India. But Joe Biden should make it certain that any action whether overtly or unintentionally, it should not give the impression to China that its stance is going to be any less tough. There will continue to be a push back but the Quad also needs adequate support and much greater engagement and involvement by the US as we go forward.

• Tell us how Biden’s victory is being received and what it could mean for key US relationships?

Joe Biden’s victory is being viewed very positively and being welcomed wholeheartedly by the majority of countries in the world. As far as Europe is concerned, all European countries have heaved a sigh of relief that the unpredictability and divisiveness that Trump had introduced in the Trans-Atlantic partnership that will be a thing of the past. Now all these countries will be able to be relating to each other in a very appropriate manner through normal diplomatic means and procedures. European countries, India has welcomed Biden’s and Kamala Harris victory.

PM Modi has expressed full confidence that India’s relation with the US will grow even stronger during Biden’s tenure. A country which has reserved their position is China because they say that they will do so only after the final results are declared because Trump has started legal cases, asked for recounts. Also, Russia and Saudi Arabia have not extended their congratulations because they realized that they are going to have a rough time when Joe Biden is in position. After all, the Democratic establishment doesn’t like Saudia Arabia at all.

I think we are going to witness some difficult times on that score. But by and large, the importance of the Middle East in my view during the Biden administration should come down because the U.S doesn’t now depend on the oil and gas coming from the region. There might be some individual bilateral relation with Israel and others but not too much of emphasis will be given on this region.

• Lastly, do you see any likely changes in India-US ties under a Biden Presidency?

The relation between India and the US will continue to get better under Joe Biden’s administration. There is bipartisan support for a stronger US-India partnership and this support whether it is a Democratic or a Republican President has been going on for the last 20 years. Joe Biden has always been supportive of a stronger relationship with India whether it was in the India-US nuclear deal or designating India as a major defence partner.

Across the board, Biden has been extremely supportive and this will continue. As far as defence partnership is concerned, the relation will only grow stronger. More than 60 areas are ranging from issues concerning agriculture, energy, cybersecurity, education in which India-US cooperate and our cooperation is likely to get even better. What will be important to see is what the American stands on Pakistan are. As far as trade issues are concerned, India is likely to get some relief and much easier move on the trade issues.

On the immigration visas also, India will be able to get a better decision than what Trump had given. India will be getting some relief in that context. I don’t expect that there will be any pressure or public denunciation or criticisms that Democrats will interfere in terms of human rights etc. The United States needs India as much as India needs the United States in terms of China Policy and in tackling other global challenges.