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Model Code of Conduct likely to hamper gold purchases in India

The WGC was positive on the jewellery demand. "Jewellery demand will likely be boosted in Q2, by traditional wedding season buying, the Akshaya Tritiya festival on 7 May and higher crop prices than last year," the report said.

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Published : May 2, 2019, 6:08 PM IST

New Delhi: The World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday said that the Model Code of Conduct, in place for the ongoing Indian elections, which restrict anyone from carrying over Rs 50,000 cash without documentation proving the source and end use may act as a headwind for gold demand in the current quarter.

The WGC report, however, said that so far, the market has been largely unaffected by the restrictions on cash movement that came into force mid-March.

On the trend during the quarter gone by, it noted a robust demand. "India wedding purchases and lower prices lifted Indian gold jewellery demand to 125.4 t (plus 5 per cent y-o-y)," it said.

"The first half of the quarter was subdued; the month-long inauspicious period of Kharmas or Malmas ended in mid-January and was followed by a sharp rise in the local gold price, hitting Rs 33,730/10g by the third week of February."

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Prices then swiftly retreated, falling to Rs 32,000/10g by the first week of March, and consumers took advantage of the correction, rushing to make wedding-related purchases and pushing the local price to a premium, it added.

Besides, a higher number of auspicious days boosted wedding-related demand. There were 21 auspicious wedding days in the Hindu calendar during Q1 2019 - three times that of Q1 2018, which was a crucial factor behind the growth in India's jewellery demand.

The WGC was positive on the jewellery demand.

".. jewellery demand will likely be boosted in Q2, by traditional wedding season buying, the Akshaya Tritiya festival on 7 May and higher crop prices than last year," the report said.

New Delhi: The World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday said that the Model Code of Conduct, in place for the ongoing Indian elections, which restrict anyone from carrying over Rs 50,000 cash without documentation proving the source and end use may act as a headwind for gold demand in the current quarter.

The WGC report, however, said that so far, the market has been largely unaffected by the restrictions on cash movement that came into force mid-March.

On the trend during the quarter gone by, it noted a robust demand. "India wedding purchases and lower prices lifted Indian gold jewellery demand to 125.4 t (plus 5 per cent y-o-y)," it said.

"The first half of the quarter was subdued; the month-long inauspicious period of Kharmas or Malmas ended in mid-January and was followed by a sharp rise in the local gold price, hitting Rs 33,730/10g by the third week of February."

Read more:How Paytm killed its e-commerce dream in India

Prices then swiftly retreated, falling to Rs 32,000/10g by the first week of March, and consumers took advantage of the correction, rushing to make wedding-related purchases and pushing the local price to a premium, it added.

Besides, a higher number of auspicious days boosted wedding-related demand. There were 21 auspicious wedding days in the Hindu calendar during Q1 2019 - three times that of Q1 2018, which was a crucial factor behind the growth in India's jewellery demand.

The WGC was positive on the jewellery demand.

".. jewellery demand will likely be boosted in Q2, by traditional wedding season buying, the Akshaya Tritiya festival on 7 May and higher crop prices than last year," the report said.

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India's Q1 gold demand up 5 pc at 159 tonne: WGC
          Mumbai, May 2 (PTI) India's gold demand rose 5 per cent to 159 tonne during January-March period this year on fall in prices that boosted jewellery sales during wedding season, a World Gold Council (WGC) report says.
          Gold demand stood at 151.5 tonne in the first quarter of 2018, according to WGC's Q1 Gold Demand Trends' report.
          In terms of value, there was a 13 per cent growth during the quarter at Rs 47,010 crore compared to Rs 41,680 crore in the same period last year.
          "The strengthening of the rupee and the fall in local gold prices towards the later part of the quarter triggered a rise in Q1 gold demand to 159 tonne. Growth of 5 per cent in Indian jewellery demand to 125.4 tonne uplifted global demand and boosted retail sentiment.
          "The increase in auspicious wedding days during the quarter to 21 days from 8 in the same period of 2018 also played a crucial role in increase in demand," WGC managing director, India, Somasundaram PR told PTI here.
          Gold prices dropped to Rs 32,000 per 10 grams by the first week of March, he added.
          Also, he said, there was a jump in volume following stringent checking during the ongoing elections controlled the grey market, which benefitted the organised retail industry.
          "Smuggling has come down, however structurally nothing has changed. Unless some policy decision is taken like reducing the Customs Duty to a reasonable level the grey market will bounce back after the elections," he added.
          Total jewellery demand in the first quarter was up by 5 per cent at 125.4 tonne compared to 119.2 tonne in the corresponding period of 2018.
          In value, jewellery demand grew by 13 per cent to Rs 37,070 crore against Rs 32,790 crore in the same quarter of 2018.
          Total Investment demand for Q1 2019 was up by 4 per cent at 33.6 tonne from 32.3 tonne in the same period of 2018.
          In value terms, gold investment demand went up by 12 per cent to Rs 9,940 crore from Rs 8,890 crore in first quarter of 2018.
          The stronger rupee benefited investors, with demand for gold bars and coins in the first quarter, Somasundaram said.
          Total gold recycled in the country also grew by 14 per cent in the first quarter of 2019 to 16.1 tonne compared to 14.1 tonne in Q1 2018.
          Going forward, Somasundaram said, demand is likely to be boosted in second quarter due to traditional wedding season buying, the Akshaya Tritiya festival and rising crop prices.
          "In addition, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of normal monsoon this year which augurs well for the rural economy and gold. The gold prices is also expected to remain attractive to boost consumer sentiment," he added.
          Talking about import, Somasundaram said, the shipments into the country grew by 11 per cent to 175 tonne compared to 157 tonne in the same period of 2018.
          "Demand is likely to be more in the higher end of 750 to 850 tonne in 2019. But it may not be driven by imports. Further manufacturing will be way ahead of demand," he added. PTI SM
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