New Delhi: Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed its 2019-20 GDP growth forecast for India to 5.8 per cent from 6.2 per cent earlier, saying the economy was experiencing a pronounced slowdown which is partly related to long-lasting factors.
The projection is lower than 6.1 per cent that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had forecast just last week.
Moody's attributed the deceleration to an investment-led slowdown that has broadened into consumption, driven by financial stress among rural households and weak job creation.
"The drivers of the deceleration are multiple, mainly domestic and in part long-lasting," Moody's said in a report.
It expected the growth to pick up to 6.6 per cent in 2020-21 and to around 7 per cent over the medium term.
"Although we expect a moderate pick-up in real GDP growth and inflation in the next two years, we have revised down our projections for both. Compared with two years ago, the probability of sustained real GDP growth at or above 8 per cent has significantly diminished," it said.
Last week, the RBI also slashed its growth projection for the economy to 6.1 per cent from an earlier estimate of 6.9 per cent.
Moody's said the drivers of the deceleration are multiple, mainly domestic and in part long-lasting.
"What was an investment-led slowdown has broadened into consumption, driven by financial stress among rural households and weak job creation," it said adding a credit crunch among non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), major providers of retail loans in recent years, has compounded the problem.
Moody's expected a 0.4 percentage point slippage in the fiscal deficit target of the government to 3.7 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal due to the corporate tax cut and lower nominal GDP growth.
India's real GDP growth has declined in each of the past five quarters, falling to 5 per cent year-on-year in April-June 2019 from 8.1 per cent in January-March 2018.
"By international standards, 5 per cent real GDP growth remains relatively high, but it marks a low rate for India. Combined with a marked decrease in inflation in recent years, this has resulted in a material decline in nominal GDP growth from typical annual rates of 11 per cent or higher over the past decade, to around 8 per cent in the second quarter of 2019," it said.
While private investment has been relatively weak since 2012, consumption which makes up about 55 per cent of GDP -- had remained robust.
The government has estimated that the corporate tax cut will reduce revenue by around Rs 1.45 lakh crore or about 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.
As a result, the general government deficit, which at about 6.4 per cent in fiscal 2018 is already much larger than those of Baa-rated peers (median of 2.5 per cent), is likely to remain wider than Moody's previously expected, it added.
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