Omicron cases could reach its peak in India early next year, says virologist Jacob John

The fast-spreading Omicron variant of COVID-19 could attain its peak early next year, most probably in January and February, said renowned virologist Jacob John in an exclusive interview with ETV Bharat's M Ahamed Ali.

Vellore(Tamil Nadu): The second wave of COVID-19 affected the Indian population at an alarming rate. Hundreds lost their lives due to shortage of medicines, oxygen, ventilators and beds during the period. Now, the Omicron variant of coronavirus is spreading fast in India. In an exclusive interview with ETV Bharat, top virologist Jacob John said that Omicron could attain its peak in India early next year, most probably in January and February.

Is India ready to face the Omicron spread?

Yes, indeed. Having faced two waves of the pandemic during 2020 and 2021, all state governments are quite knowledgeable about the problems and solutions. Moreover, all state governments were prepared for a third wave.

When will Omicron cases peak in India?

The virus arrived in India towards the end of November 2021. As this is a fast-spreading variant of the virus, the numbers could peak by early next year, maybe in January and February.

For earlier strains, the quarantine period was 7 days but for Omicron, the quarantine period is 14 days. Does India have sufficient beds and medical equipment to sustain caseloads?

Actually, for those with mild symptoms, home quarantine is sufficient and hospital admission are not necessary. In the first quarter of 2022, we should expect a small surge in cases for which we do have sufficient hospital beds. Additional attention must be given to child admissions for which pediatric beds must be prepared. Since Omicron virus load is relatively high, a RT-PCR test could be done 7 days after quarantine and if negative, consider the person no longer infectious. 14 days is not necessary for quarantine and re-testing.

Should the country impose another lockdown if there is another wave?

A new "wave" is most unlikely. Some minor rise is what I anticipate. Omicron has arrived only now when population immunity is very high. A spurt in infections may be seen among children. No more lockdown will be needed anywhere in India.

What are the possible risks of Omicron strain for those who are not vaccinated against Covid-19?

This is not yet known for sure. Unvaccinated people could have had earlier infections with the Wuhan or delta variant. So, all unvaccinated are not equal. In those with various risk factors (age, pregnancy, chronic diseases, treatment for cancer etc.) the disease could be severe, or at least we must anticipate severe disease and be prepared to face it. We must have an imaginative and effective programme to vaccinate more. Second dose for all with one dose, booster dose to those with 2 doses, plus vaccination for children.

Studies say Omicron is over mutative, what are the possible effects of this?

Too many mutations have made it more readily transmitted and less protected by a medium/low level of immunity. That is what we expect in people who were infected last year and those who got the second dose of vaccine 6 months or more ago. We also suspect that too many mutations have made it less virulent (causing non-severe disease).

When will the Covid-19 pandemic end?

Pandemic started in different countries between December 2019 and April 2020. Country epidemics will end similarly and in a staggered manner. Already India, Taiwan and Japan have reached the end of the epidemic phase and now have an "endemic" (low and steady numbers) phase. Israel also seems to reach the endemic phase. These 4 countries are showing the beginning of the end of the pandemic. I guess, by the end of the first quarter of 2022, the pandemic will be over. This is more a guess than a prediction. But the virus will stay with humans as an "endemic" infection and disease (just like flu, common cold, etc). The need for vaccination will continue.