New Cabinet, new challenges ahead for Basavaraj Bommai

Basavaraj Bommai’s survival in the preliminary round of forming a Cabinet, followed by countering the possible intrusion of Yediyurappas in the day-to-day affairs and sailing through 2023 Assembly polls are some of the questions that hang in balance. The answers to these questions will indubitably be a litmus test to Bommai's political sagacity and correspondingly decide whether or not he’s indispensable to the party in the long run, writes Ashok Patnaik.

Hyderabad: In what appeared to be a seamless transition of Basavaraj Bommai as Karnataka Chief Minister, at least on the face of it, now appears to be an illusory. The days ahead for the new incumbent chief minister if anything will hardly be a smooth ride. Two days after Bommai's oath-taking ceremony, several MLAs had lined-up to meet with former chief minister BS Yediyurappa at his residence to seek ministerial berths. This goes on the expected lines on what Yediyurappa laggardly though purposefully dropped a few words on his last day in office that despite him being out of power he will still be "active in politics". It's a different thing that TV channels and the soundbite brigade slighted the ponderous words of this veteran politician.

One thing is certain that in weeks ahead politics in Karnataka will take a roller-coaster ride. One of the pressing challenges that Bommai needs to address is allocating ministerial berths this week. In usual circumstances ministry formation could not have been an Olympian task, but in the absence of Yediyurappa, Bommai is required to do some fine balancing act given the fact that the state BJP is riddled with fractious sections of party old guards and legislators who made way to the BJP after quitting the Congress-JD(S).

But that’s not all. Bommai’s survival in this preliminary round, followed by countering the possible intrusion of Yediyurappas in the day-to-day affairs and sailing through 2023 Assembly polls are the questions that hang in balance. Of course, the answers to these questions will indubitably be a litmus test to Bommai's political sagacity and correspondingly decide whether or not he’s indispensable to the party!

Knives Out
No sooner had the reports about the change of guard in the state surfaced than both the Congress and JD(S) began questioning the moves of the BJP central leadership. The Congress has even doubted the survival of Bommai's tenure.

Leader of the Opposition Siddaramaiah went to the extent of even cautioning Bommai that the latter's survival will depend on how much he obliges Yediyurappa, else he would meet the fate of Sadananda Gowda, who had to step down as CM, after falling out with Yediyurappa.

By the weekend the state BJP might witness some drama unfolding with the first cabinet of new incumbents in place. Already the high command is believed to have agreed to induct 21 to 25 ministers into the cabinet in the first phase. Reports emanating from the Karnataka BJP also suggest that most of the legislators' names who joined the BJP from the Congress are likely to be accommodated in the cabinet. But then what about old-timers? Unless Yediyurappa steps in, things might really go out of hand. The Yediyurappa factor will play a critical if not a decisive role in Karnataka politics for some time.

2023 Assembly Polls
The Congress and JD(S) might use the current volatile situation to their advantage and redirect the disgruntled MLAs against the Bommai government. Revenge in politics can be deadly and even go to any extent. "A man who contemplates revenge," a British classicist once wrote, "keeps his wounds green.” To presume the Congress and JD(S) will remain aloof in these uncertain times and allow the Bommai government to function steadily would be naïve.

Even the BJP's own Yediyurappa is unlikely to remain silent. He's a wounded tiger — asked to step down before he completed his full term. Although he went on record stating that he shall work towards bringing the BJP back to power in the 2023 polls, it remains to be seen what bargains he would do and on what fronts the BJP will accommodate Yediyurappa in the long run. His statewide tour — starting post Ganesh Chaturthi — to address the grievances will reinforce the importance of BJP's deep connection with this veteran leader.

Rubber Stamp?
In the meantime, it would be interesting to see how well Yediyurappa will get along with Bommai and whether the latter's assertion that he would not be a "rubber stamp" will actually see the light of the day.