New Delhi: India will attend the signing of a landmark deal between the United States and Taliban in an effort to give peace a chance in Afghanistan and pave the way for an eventual pullout of US troops from the war-torn country.
Indian Ambassador to Qatar P Kumaran will be present at the historic event in Doha on Saturday which will see the peace deal by US envoy for peace talks Zalmay Khalilzad with the Taliban in presence of US Secretary of State Pompeo, Pakistani Foreign Minister SM Qureshi, Uzbek Foreign Minister Kamilov and other leaders and envoys from stakeholder countries in the region.
This is the first time that India will share space with the Taliban in an official event. In a shift from its past positions India had previously sent two retired ambassadors to the Moscow round of talks but in a ‘non-official’ capacity.
Senior journalist Smita Sharma spoke to former Indian Ambassador to the United States Meera Shankar about what is at stake for New Delhi and its big concerns about mainstreaming Taliban.
Ambassador Shankar believes that India will have to watch and assess the post-withdrawal scenario closely. And while New Delhi will not send troops to Afghanistan, it must step up on assistance and equipment supply to Kabul.
Earlier speaking to Smita Sharma, visiting Russian Senator and Deputy Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee Andrew Klimov claimed that no peace deal can succeed in Afghanistan unless Moscow is involved.
Meera Shankar believes India must engage with the Taliban and remain in touch with regional stakeholders including Iran and Russia.
Here are excerpts from the interview.
Q: India will be represented at the signing off ceremony in Doha. What are India’s big concerns at the moment?
Ans: India’s concerns are that any precipitate withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan could lead to a chaotic situation there and create a vacuum which could be filled by terrorist extremist forces which adverse repercussions on regional forces and global security. So we are concerned that the withdrawal of US forces and mainstreaming of the Taliban should be done in a way which is orderly. And where the Afghan government is supported through this period, particularly their army and police. Because they were really funded internationally. If there is a sudden stoppage of funding for them then the government would collapse which is not in the interest of anyone. Secondly, as you mainstream the Taliban, it is important to preserve the gains that have been made in terms of democratic pluralism’s and protecting rights of women and minorities. Finally, the concern is that as Pakistan becomes more important for the US in delivering a deal in Afghanistan, they should not inadvertently get signals that because they are cooperating with the US in Afghanistan, they will be given free rein on the eastern border.
Q: Is that feasible given that Trump sat with Imran Khan in the white house, in Davos and in Delhi at his press conference he called Imran Khan and Narendra Modi being his good friends in the same sentence. Can America really lean too hard on Pakistan at this point in time given they have played a role in getting Taliban to the talks table?
Ans: There are instruments of pressure where the US plays a key role. For instance, in listing of Masood Azhar, in keeping Pakistan under pressure in the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) or through IMF (International Monetary Fund) negotiations. There are many instruments which the US can use to exert pressure on Pakistan through the international system. Even as bilaterally, it may take a softer line on Afghanistan. We have to understand that the strategic trust between the US and Pakistan has eroded. So there is a greater degree of wariness on both sides. And it will not be that blind faith that used to exist earlier.
Q: Given India's high stakes, the investments in constructing a parliament building in Afghanistan, or infrastructure, roads, should India step up its role? If India says there will be no boots on the ground how can India step-up its investments into Afghanistan to ensure its own strategic security?
Ans: I think India will not put boots on the ground. I think it will exacerbate the situation and there can be many consequences to this. What is an intra-afghan problem would then turn into an Indo-Pak problem. So it is not desirable for India to put boots on the ground. But we can do more in terms of shoring up Afghan security forces, in terms of weapons and equipments' training. For many of our infrastructure projects, we agree to protect them. We have taken up some of our paramilitary forces there. We can certainly step up training, equipment supplies particularly if we can supply them some more airlift capabilities. We have provided them with helicopters in the past. But they are desperately short of airlift capabilities. There is a lot we can do. We have to be nimble and very active in reaching out to all political players in Afghanistan. You cannot say right now we are not going to deal with the Taliban. They are going to be a factor. Is there a Taliban nationalism, Afghan nationalism? Probably. Let us see where it goes. I am sure they will also not be very happy being totally dependent on Pakistan. Take Mullah Baradar, their number 2, who was in prison for so long and who is the key negotiator. We have to assess how the post-American withdrawal scenario pans out and devise our plans accordingly.
Q: India took a long time to even be in the same room as the Taliban and eventually sent two retired ambassadors as ‘non- officials’. I spoke to a Russian Senator who happens to be the Deputy of the Foreign Affairs Committee who believes that a peace deal which does not involve Moscow given their past experiences in Afghanistan will not succeed. Can India use Russia or Iran for some back channel with Taliban? What role will these stakeholders play?
Ans: Iran has kept links with the Taliban or some elements basically as a part of its strategy for leverage against Americans. Because they have been very worried about the American presence. Though, they were initially very hostile to the Taliban which they saw as anti-Shia. They have tactically kept links with the Taliban primarily because of their concerns regarding the American presence there. Russia has been concerned about the impact of instability in Afghanistan in Central Asia and Russia itself. Particularly the narcotics trade flows from there into Russia. So, they will keep an eye there. They have tried to take a role in terms of brokering talks with the Taliban. I think they will continue to play a role and India will probably be in touch with all players including the US and Russia.
