New Delhi: A change of government in the US will lead to relooking of all the global trade negotiations as the US President Donald Trump has virtually kept the USA out of all these pacts, including World Trade Organization WTO and Paris Agreement, said a top economist.“If Joe Biden comes then there will be a relook at the trade negotiations for better,” said N R Bhanumurthy, Vice-Chancellor of Bengaluru based BASE University.
After taking office in 2016, the US President Donald Trump completely changed the way the US was dealing with its trade partner. He called for building the domestic industry and protection of jobs in the country under this Make America Great Again (MAGA) campaign, which has been viewed as a return of protectionism in the world trade order, including European nations.
The US leader triggered a long-drawn trade war with China, in which he not only targeted the Chinese exports coming to the US by raising tariffs but he also invoked security concerns to target Chinese telecom equipment giants such as Huawei and ZTE.
India also bore the brunt of the US President’s protectionism as he withdrew the benefits available to India under the Generalised System of Preference (GSP), which affected India’s export worth over $5 billion to the US. The US leader also imposed tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium export to the country, forcing India to impose tariffs on the US imports to have equal and opposite impact.
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“I don't think that anybody can be much tougher than Trump in terms of trade negotiations, a person who can completely cut the trade. This is the worst trade negotiations one can have,” N R Bhanumurthy told ETV Bharat.“At the end of the trade negotiations, if there is no trade between the two countries then that is worst and this is what happened under Trump,” he added.
It was not only the US President, who has been described as a tough negotiator on trade and economic issues, experts believe that the US Trade Representative (USTR), Robert E Lighthizer was also a tough negotiator who impacted the growth of bilateral trade with several nations.
In an earlier interaction with ETV Bharat, Sanjay Baru, chief spokesperson of the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s tenure, said if Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the race to the White House, then all the key officials of the administration will change, including the USTR.
Under Robert E Lighthizer, India and the US could not sign even a limited trade deal during US President Donald Trump’s maiden India visit in February this year despite strong personal chemistry between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump.“Lighthizer has been a very-very tough negotiator,” Baru told ETV Bharat.
What will happen if Trump wins a second term?
N R Bhanumurthy, who has closely tracked macro economy and trade issues, believes that all the major global trade negotiations will be relooked by the new administration even if Donald Trump retains the White House.
“Even if Trump comes it will be a different administration in my view as any improvement in the trade negotiations would also help the US,” he said.
Bhanumurthy says the US cannot grow in a closed trade situation, because a capitalist economy like the US will only be able to grow with larger trade pacts and larger trade volumes because it is competitive in the international market in case of many products.
Talking about Donald Trump’s trade war with China, the economist opines that it was more of rhetoric and if Donald Trump retains the Presidency then, unlike his first term, he will be more business-friendly.“This anti-China rhetoric was basically for Trump was a way to please some segments of the US society and that seems to have worked also,” he told ETV Bharat.
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